Alamo Bowl Free Picks : Arizona vs Oklahoma Best Bets, #1 Predictions

Arizona Wildcats vs Oklahoma Sooners Best Bets: Alamo Bowl Predictions & Analysis

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky makes a last stand and fires off some picks on The Alamo Bowl being played on December 28th, between Arizona and Oklahoma. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top free picks and best bets here for the 2023 Alamo Bowl.

Arizona is getting better, fast.  In a four game stretch they lost to USC in overtime, walloped WSU, survived hosting Oregon State, and easily beat UCLA.  Life is good.  As they enter the Big 12, Oklahoma exits.  Why does 10-2 feel like they weren’t relevant nationally, and is that fair?  This could be entertaining.

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Alamo Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Arizona Analysis

We knew Arizona could move the ball offensively, but the defense improved by leaps and bounds over 2022.  The PAC 12 was explosive in 2022 yet the Wildcats more than held their own. 

Not only did the point defense improve, but so did the run defense and pass defense.  After allowing 5.75 per carry (213 per game) and almost 70% through the air, Arizona’s 2023 numbers were 3.7-118.5 yards per game and 60% allowed through the air. 

Let’s break down a couple of comparable games.  Washington ran 26-116 and passed 30-40.  Oregon State ran 29-131 and passed 18-33.  Oklahoma is a high scoring team, with their 2^nd worst performance being 24 points.  This game will be on a fast track so let’s see if the Wildcats can limit the Sooners to 27 here. 

Offensively, Arizona never scored below 24 points.  I like Oklahoma’s pass defense but QB Fitita hit 73% for the season. 

Missing Players for Arizona… Keep an Eye Open

Two players are on my watch list for the Wildcats.  RB Coleman has a toe injury.  That must be monitored.  WR Cowling is rumored to be deciding whether or not to play.  Head Coach Jedd Fisch is on record as saying one or two players may opt-out.  Keep an eye on all news from Arizona.  The sack ratio was 31-21.  The PK was 16-21.  Arizona is noticeably deficient defending kick and punt returns.

Alamo Bowl Picks: Oklahoma Analysis Best Bets

The Sooners had a “miracle” win vs. Texas, but suffered a letdown thereafter, with a too close for comfort win vs. UCF (31-29), a loss at Kansas, and another loss at highly motivated Oklahoma State.  Propelling them to 11-2 was a +11 turnover ratio, with a +13 interception differential. 

Will any bowl game have their two starting QB’s intact?  QB Gabriel exits, so it remains to be seen if projected starting QB Jackson Arnold can limit turnovers.  He saw limited action this season.  Three RB’s may miss this game, but freshman RB Sawchuk (610-5.8) is here and was already their best option. 

I haven’t heard of any Sooner WR missing the game, so that’s nice.  The OL however will be without three starters and probably three backups.  The OL allowed only 17 sacks, but Arizona is dangerous vs. the revamped OL and young QB.  The other news is that coordinator Jeff Lebby is gone (Head Coach for Mississippi State).  We might be looking at some offensive regression. 

Oklahoma was better than expected defending the pass.  Many opponents were held below expectations.  Fifita will get his completions, but perhaps the damage can be limited.  In a surprise, the Sooners could be at near full strength on this side of the ball.  One area that was not good was defensive sacks (19).  The 3^rd down conversion ratio was very good.  Kicking was average at 14-20.

Alamo Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Can Arizona’s pass rush get to the young Oklahoma QB?  Who’s healthy at RB for Arizona, and can the run game keep the Sooner’s off balance?  What are realistic expectations for an Oklahoma offense missing their coordinator and three starting OL.  When do we find out who might be missing the game for the Wildcats?

Alamo Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

At full strength the Sooners would be -2, but the offense has a bunch of new parts and the very motivated Wildcats deserve to be favored (currently -2.5/3).  I’m hopeful that the WR unit stays intact.

The Pick: Alamo Bowl Prediction!

If the WR unit DOES stay intact, and if WR’s Cowling and McMillan play, my pick is Arizona.  I’ll be watching the newswire closely, which is a must this bowl season.  

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