Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Predictions : Georgia State vs Utah State Free Picks, Best Bets 12/23

Georgia State Panthers vs Utah State Aggies Best Bets: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky whips up a massive service of picks on Famous Idaho Potato Bowl being played on December 23rd, between Georgia State and Utah State. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?

Georgia State started fast, but lost their last five games.  Utah State needed overtime to get to 6-6, beating New Mexico 44-41.  Two flawed teams square off in a game that likely will be buried in the television ratings.

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The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Georgia State Overview

 I looked closely, but other than the lopsided scores, the Georgia State stat sheet didn’t change much during the losing streak.  The seasonal rush data shows a bit of a positive, as led by RB Carroll (1350-4.95-13 TD’s), they can move the chains on the ground. 

Having said that, good Sun Belt players are getting poached and promised money for the first time, and Carroll is gone, heading to Missouri.  QB Grainger is now the only option on the roster with more than 61 yards.  As for Grainger, I project 18-29, for just under 200 pass yards. 

Maybe that will be exceeded (if the weather is good) due to more reliance on the pass.  Unfortunately, his top target is also in the portal and has landed at Auburn.  The defense was not hit as hard, but a key CB is gone.  The Panthers allowed over 65% through the air, so that’s not a good thing.  They allowed 28 passing TD’s.  The sack ratio is 27-15.  Kicking was average, at 8-11.  

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Picks: Utah State Strengths and Weaknesses

In 2022 the Aggies underdelivered running the ball with a 3.95-5.1 offense to defense ratio.  The run game was fixed to the tune of 5.0-193, but the run defense stayed at 5.1 allowed per carry.  There are no RB defections, so what was a neutral rush differential (no play based on seasonal data) now shifts to a Utah State advantage. 

It’s unclear who will be the QB due to injuries.  Levi Williams has plenty of experience but until the final game this season, he had not started since 2021, when he was with Wyoming.  He’s a terrific rush threat, but not a high percentage QB. 

The Aggies are normally balanced, and have enough pass-catching options.  I’ll project just under 60%, but at least 65 rushing yards and a rushing TD if he’s named the starter.  One thing to note is that Utah State was 0-6 facing 2023 bowl teams, achieving all six wins vs. non-bowlers.  This is not a great defense, with their best trait being holding teams down in pass completion percentage. 

The way to try to beat Utah St is to establish the run game (very high 28 rush TD’s allowed), and get to whoever is the QB (41 sacks allowed).  For the season, Utah had a -6:01 time of possession disadvantage.  The kick return defense is poor.  Kicking was solid, at 13-16.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Can Georgia State take advantage of a weak Utah St run stop unit?  Can they win in the return game?  If as expected, Utah State fields a decent run attack, does that lead to easy throws vs. a suspect pass defense, even with Levi Williams at QB?  

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

Teams with long season-ending losing streaks are often able to reverse course in a bowl game.  But 6-6 teams are not necessarily trustworthy, and Georgia State’s offense now must rely almost entirely on the pass game unless there’s a hidden RB on the roster.

The Pick: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Prediction!

 I’ll side with Utah State in this matchup, but I can’t make this a best bet type, as I’m still wary about their run stop ability and their QB situation.  Let’s also recommend a TD run for QB Williams if he’s announced as the starter.

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