Armed Forces Bowl Predictions : Air Force vs James Madison Free Picks, Best Bets 12/23
Air Force Falcons vs James Madison Dukes Best Bets: Armed Forces Bowl Preview & Prediction
Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky serves up a hot take on The Armed Forces Bowl being played on December 23rd, between Air Force and James Madison. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?
What happened to Air Force? They started 8-0, but lost their last four games, and were outscored 108-62. James Madison, just like Jacksonville State, was not supposed to be going to a bowl. Instead, the Dukes rightfully were included thanks to the lack of bowl eligible teams. Only an overtime loss prevented a perfect season. On paper, this game looks interesting.
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The Armed Forces Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Air Force Overview
In 2021 and 2022 Air Force (AF) ran for 341 and 337 yards per game. They ran 5.2-278 this year, with both figures down a bit. The numbers were 194-907 during their four-game losing streak. Lead QB Larrier was hurt early week ten and missed the rest of the season. AF doesn’t pass much, but the completion % splits are worth noting.
Larrier was 37-62 with a 6-2 ratio. His two backups were 14-34, with an 0-2 ratio. Larrier might be back for the bowl game, so keep this in mind. AF once again had a really stout defense, but there was regression during the losing streak. In games 1-8 they allowed just 2.8-75 yards per game.
In games 9-12 they allowed 147 yards per game, with a yards-per-carry average of 4.75. AF is a highly disciplined team, with a massive edge in penalty yardage, and a stout return defense. They had a +6:20 time of possession edge. The sack ratio was 26-11. Kicking was solid at 15-19.
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Armed Forces Bowl Picks: James Madison Strengths and Weaknesses
James Madison (JM) replicated stout run numbers, showing a 4.2-2.1 rush ratio. They only ran for 143 yards per game however, with two “decent” running backs sharing the load. This will be their toughest test, but in a surprise, the one comparable run defense (Troy) saw them rush for decent yardage. I suspect AF will be better vs. the run with the time off, and I project about 3.5 per carry or maybe less for their two RB’s. That’s usually not a problem, as QB McCloud hit 69% through the air, and stretched the field. AF is more vulnerable to pass types than usual, but McCloud is gone.
JM will likely turn to a freshman QB for this one, and he will be guiding a team that might look like a shell of itself on game day.
The watch list for other players who are in the portal and may miss the game is a long one. The list includes both RB’s, their top WR, a three-year OL starter, and at least four impact defensive players, including a stud pass rusher and their top three tacklers.
This all came about because their Head Coach has left for Indiana, and he took both coordinators and a couple of other coaches with him. At full strength, JM’s defensive numbers are equal to or better than what AF has.
I’ve scoured the newswire, and it seems that a few of the portal players may stay for the bowl game. I encourage readers to keep on top of this developing situation. JM has an excellent kicker, and at full strength, boasts a 45-20 sack ratio.
Armed Forces Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:
Can Larrier return for AF? If so, the threat of a completed pass returns. If not, it gives the JM defense a boost. Who plays for JM? If it’s an all-new backfield, how do they score? Check the RB rotation carefully. JM has the regular season turnover edge. They need to win that battle in this bowl game.
Armed Forces Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions
In thinking about this game, my initial thought was how surprising it is to see AF not picked via the rush data in a bowl game. That never happens. But that assumes JM is at full strength, which they are not. I need clarification in two areas. 1st, will either JM RB play in this game. 2nd, will the defensive players of note (all of them very good) play?
The Pick: Armed Forces Bowl Prediction!
I like AF +3 a bit for other reasons, such as their desire to erase a four-game losing streak, and JM’s coaching carousal, where the top guys are all gone. This play increases in intensity as more players are declared out for the Dukes. Watch the news carefully.
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