Birmingham Bowl Predictions : Duke vs Troy Free Picks, Best Bets 12/23

Duke Blue Devils vs Troy Trojans Best Bets: Birmingham Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers up a devilish take on The Birmingham Bowl being played on December 23rd, between Duke and Troy. What are his takeaways (not Helen, don’t take Helen!) and things to watch when considering betting?

Duke played solid football all season long despite suffering some critical injuries and some pretty spectacular collapses (see Notre Dame 4th and 16…).  Mike Elko built this team the right way, but now he’s gone, taking the job at Texas A&M where he once was their defensive coordinator. 

Troy had two monster seasons under Jon Sumrall.  They play outstanding defense, and improved greatly on offense as well.  Now Sumrall is gone, as he heads to Tulane, a place where he once was an assistant coach (defense). 

I would have loved to see this matchup take place with both coaches intact, as it would have been an outstanding chess match.  This bowl game will not have that same intensity.

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The Birmingham Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Duke Overview

Elko made his mark defensively before becoming a Head Coach, and it showed to the tune of drastic improvement in 2022.  I expected slight regression this year, but the run defense delivered another strong outcome (4.05-148).  Teams weren’t completely stopped, but were slowed down.  Troy has an outstanding running back, so that’s challenge #1. 

Duke’s pass defensive #’s did regress, to nearly 63% allowed, and with just nine defensive interceptions.  Troy has an experienced QB, so there will be some damage done here as well.  Now for the portal news.  Four players who contributed significantly on defense are likely out for the game, and that list includes their top two sackers. 

Offensively, Duke put up strong numbers even when their prized QB (Leonard) was lost for the season.  They scored 20 or more points in five of their final six games, three of which were tossup games (1-2 result).  Grayson Loftis (53.7%, 8-3 ratio) is the starter.  The freshman will likely struggle in this game.  It looks like Duke’s top RB is out of this game, but Jaquez Moore (601-5.9) entered and withdrew his name from the portal. 

He’ll team with stout WR Jordan Moore to give Duke some hope in maintaining a rhythm offensively.  Duke averaged 5.1 per carry this season, but I expect some regression in this spot.  Duke’s 3^rd down conversion rate was a bit low.  The OL allowed just 15 sacks.  Kicking was solid.  The Blue Devils have a really good punter.  The top kick returners are gone.

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Birmingham Bowl Picks: Troy Strengths and Weaknesses

Jon Sumrall knew defense.  His 2022 team allowed 17 points per game, 3.3 yards-per-carry and 60.5% through the air, with 39 defensive sacks.  His team in 2023 was much the same, allowing 17 points per game, 3.1 yards-per-carry, and just over 62% through the air.  That pass % will not be tested as much vs. Duke’s QB.  As for defensive sacks, they actually rose, to an outstanding 44. 

Surprisingly, no one of note thus far is in the portal, despite the coaching change.  The biggest change this year was an improved offense.  Points rose from 26 per game to 31, and the run attack, 3.5-121 per game, rose significantly to 5.1-170.  6^th year QB Gunnar Watson had a duplicate accuracy rating (61.5%) from a year ago, but the 14-12 touchdown to interception ratio became 27-5 this season! 

RB Vidal has rushed for 3,926 yards in his Troy career, including a stat line of 1,582-5.64-14 TD’s in 2023.  Some of his best games came vs. weaker competition, and he charts out at about 19-88 in this game, but I suspect that’s a low number based on Duke’s portal situation.  The receiving game is decent.  One area that has been a concern is sacks allowed.  Troy allowed 40 in 2022 and despite run-pass balance, plus an experienced QB, allowed another 33 sacks this season.  It will be interesting to see if Duke can get to the QB minus their top two pass rushers. 

Troy has a solid 3^rd down defense, which gives them an edge.  Kicking was good at 18-22.  

Birmingham Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

QB Loftis must have a solid day vs. Troy’s “weaker” unit, the pass defense.  Without that, I can’t see the Blue Devils sustaining drives.  Defensively, players must step up to defend the run, and to get to QB Watson, who is sack prone. 

Troy’s main goal is to focus.  If they play to their 2023 seasonal numbers, they will be fine.  Both teams have to react positively to the coaching change.  Troy faced a decent schedule, but some of their numbers were achieved vs. weaker teams.

Birmingham Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

I was surprised that my season ending Power Numbers had Troy by five points, considering Duke’s program had been so good with Elko.  Now, factor in the portal losses and the site of the game (150 miles or so from Troy’s campus), and I understand completely the spread move from -6 all the way up to as high as -9. 

Does Troy want this game more?  Trooper Taylor is Duke’s interim coach, but he will be joining Elko at A&M after the game.  Most of the assistants are gone.  Troy’s situation is a bit different.  Sumrall told his assistants to stay and “finish the job” before coming over to Tulane.  The interim coach is expected to stay at Troy, so his heart will be in this bowl game. 

Bottom line: I would have loved to handicap this one with both teams and both staffs at full strength, but after doing the analysis I see no edge to be had.

The Pick: Birmingham Bowl Prediction!

Consider taking Troy’s team total over the posted number.

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