Cure Bowl Best Bets: Appalachian State vs. Miami Ohio Predictions – College Football 12/16

Cure Bowl Preview & Free Picks: Appalachian State vs. Miami Ohio Best Bets

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his tips on The Cure Bowl being played on December 16th, between Appalachian State and Miami Ohio. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now!

Appalachian State went 6-6 in 2022 but did not get a bowl invitation.  Sitting at 3-4, the Mountaineers won five in a row before losing to Troy in the Sun Belt title game.  Miami went 11-2, upsetting Toledo to win the MAC.  As usual, QB Gabbert went down to injury, but that didn’t stop Miami from having one of their best ever seasons.  On paper, this looks like a good matchup in the Cure Bowl.

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Cure Bowl Preview and Betting Tips

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Cure Bowl Picks and Best Bets: Appalachian State Preview

The Appalachian State run game ratio was 4.5-5.0.  5.0 per carry allowed is troubling for this program.  Leading the rush attack was Nate Noel (834-4.8 per carry), but he’s in the transfer portal. 

Two other RB’s have even higher per-carry averages, so I think they will be fine.  QB Aguilar completed over 64% of his passes with a stout 33-9 ratio.  This is a well-balanced team, leading to their 35 points per game average.  Miami only allowed 16 points per game, but the Mountaineers should be able to move the ball on the RedHawks in the Cure Bowl.  

Appalachian State Defensive Numbers

Defensively, only two teams were held under 22 points this season.  Miami is not great offensively, but has an opportunity to put up some points of their own depending on how their QB performs (see below). 

The Mountaineers allowed a too high 27 rush TD’s.  In other stats, the sack ratio was 33-20 and kicking was solid, at 17-20. That could help in a close Cure Bowl.

Cure Bowl Picks: Miami Ohio Strengths and Weaknesses

Miami was 3-2 vs. bowl teams this year, after going 0-5 in that role a year ago.  The run game improved (4.4 per carry this year, 3.85 a year ago), while the run defense was still decent.  Miami is the pronounced rush choice in this game, with RB Amos hitting at 5.05 per carry and 12 rushing TD’s.  There’s variety at WR but uncertainty at QB. 

Replacement QB Aveon Smith was only 50%, completing just eight passes per game in his six starts.  He threw two TD’s and had two passes intercepted.  He’s now in the transfer portal.  Harry Hesson threw five passes in 2022, and did not attempt a pass in 2023.  Once again, we have no data to use in developing accurate projections.

Cure Bowl: Miami Ohio Defense – How Does it Look?

The good news is that Miami has a stout defense, allowing just eleven rushing TD’s and under 30% in successful 3^rd down conversions. 

The return game splits favor Miami as well.  Miami’s PK went 26-27 and briefly entered the portal, but just recently announced he was returning.  Shall we assume he will be the kicker for this game?  Miami’s sack ratio was 34-22.

Cure Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Can the Mountaineers stop RB Amos?  If so, and if they can force Miami to be one-dimensional, the defense could play better than its regular season numbers. 

Will Miami’s QB play be the difference?  Smith wasn’t anything special, but he was 5-0 as a regular season starter, and the new QB has little to no experience.  Finally, will Miami’s return game edge be a difference-maker?

Cure Bowl Best Bets – The Free Picks & Predictions

Assuming Miami’s kicker is back, the only real portal loss in this game is at QB for the RedHawks.  Miami still has an opportunity to win in the run game. 

I do not think there is a motivational issue in this matchup.  In reading about the game, Miami’s coach noted that if Miami wins this game they will have a 12-2 record, second only to Big Ben’s 13-1 season.

The Pick:

It’s a tricky spot backing a team so raw at QB, but the line on this game is 6.5 at -115 and could touch seven before gametime.  I like the balanced offense Appalachian State brings to the table but I don’t trust their defense in this spot to win by margin.  So, take Miami Ohio to beat the spread!

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