Frisco Bowl Free Picks & Massive Best Bets: Marshall vs UTSA Predictions 12/19
Marshall vs. UTSA Best Bets: Frisco Bowl Preview & Free Picks
Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his killer tips on The Frisco Bowl being played on December 19th, between Marshall and UTSA. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective?
Read below now!
Marshall started 4-0, but by season’s end they needed a victory over Arkansas State to reach 6-6. UTSA started 1-3, but then caught fire until losing their final game at rated Tulane.
Big bowl favorites are not always great plays in early bowl games, but as I approach this analysis UTSA looks like the much better team. Let’s dive into the numbers to see where the edges might be.
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Frisco Bowl Picks and Best Bets: Marshall Overview
Marshall’s uncorrected for sacks rush ratio was 3.85-4.45. That pales in comparison to last year’s ratio, which was 4.45-2.8. Instead of rushing for over 205 yards per game, the Thundering Herd ran for just 134 yards per game. With that being said, RB Ali is an outstanding player.
In 2020 he ran for over 1,400 yards, with 23 rushing TD’s. He was hurt for much of last season, yet still ran 5.8 per carry. This year he ran for 1,043 yards with 203 carries and another 14 rushing TD’s. He also caught 28 passes. UTSA has a decent run defense but Ali is good enough to make some noise. As of this writing (12/13) he plans to play in the bowl game.
QB Cole Pennington is set to start. Yes, he’s the son of former NFL QB Chad Pennington. The first year QB was 49-79, but threw for just 439 yards, with zero touchdown passes and six interceptions. Maybe his future is bright, but for now, this is edge, UTSA, who played decently vs. the pass this season.
For the season, Marshall was -13 in turnover margin, which included a -7 fumble ratio. Marshall’s pass defense was decent, and will face a good test in this game. The sack ratio was 33-30. Field goal kicking was average.
Frisco Bowl Picks: UTSA Strengths and Weaknesses
UTSA’s rush offense remained a bit above average, while their rush defense made positive strides. They use a RB by committee approach and the trio of options should be able to get their yards vs. Marshall’s defense.
Seniors abound everywhere in the pass game. QB Frank Harris had a “down” year, but still completed 65%, with an 18-8 ratio. Lead WR Joshua Cephus has caught nearly 300 passes the past four seasons. I’m a bit surprised he’s staying on for this game, but his presence certainly benefits the other capable WR’s on the team.
Tennessee and Tulane combined to rush 74-530 vs. UTSA. Everyone else did not fare as well. Marshall can achieve 4.0 (perhaps 30-120) with RB Ali, but without him I see this as a big edge for UTSA. I expect Marshall’s pass game to also be slowed down vs. this very capable defense. One area that does bear watching is the UTSA pass rush.
The team had 40 defensive sacks, but 14 of those were from Trey Moore, who won’t play in this game. No one else had more than four sacks. That could give Pennington more time to find a WR or TE target. UTSA’s kicking game is solid (14-17).
Frisco Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:
Two words: Rasheen Ali. If he plays, he has to have the kind of game that gives Marshall a chance to pass effectively with its raw QB, enabling the defense to not get overworked.
If he doesn’t play, the focus shifts to Marshall’s defense, which will need to buckle down and contain both the run and the pass.
Frisco Bowl Best Bets – The Free Picks & Predictions
I started this preview by saying that big bowl game favorites are not money makers early in the bowl season. Perhaps playing in their home state (300 miles away) will help motivate UTSA, as playing Marshall itself is not a motivator.
I do suspect that all the impact seniors want to close on a high note. UTSA has rush and point stat comparison edges a few days ago when the line was -9 up to -10, but at the current line of -13, neither team has the stat sheet edge.
The Pick: Frisco Bowl Prediction!
This is an easy game to ignore for me, but if Ali does NOT play, I may be tempted to lay the points, and perhaps get creative with Marshall team totals under, especially in the 1st half.
Take the Marshall team total under if RB Ali is declared out of this game. As an alternative, if RB Ali plays, consider to OVER on his rushing yards total.
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