Gasparilla Bowl Predictions : Georgia Tech vs UCF Free Picks, Best Bets 12/22

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. UCF Golden Knights Best Bets: Gasparilla Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky takes off his eyepatch and drops brilliant sunny tips on The Gasparilla Bowl being played on December 22nd, between UCF and Georgia Tech. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.

Georgia Tech was a money-making dog this season, going 7-1 vs. the spread, and 4-4 straight-up in that role.  6-6 for them feels like a step in the right direction. 

UCF also went 6-6, but they did it despite going 1-5-1 vs. the spread as a favorite, and just 4-3 straight up.  They might have mixed emotions about finishing 6-6, but they were the only Big 12 newcomer to garner a bowl bid. 

UCF beat Georgia Tech in September, 2022 but plenty of changes have happened for both schools since then.  This looks to be an intriguing bowl matchup.

Find free college football best bets and bowl game coverage this postseason.

New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks – Get Started Now!

 All FIRST TIME customers will receive 15% OFF anything and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!

Gasparilla Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: UCF Overview

UCF had two straight seasons where they rushed for 5.5 yards-per-carry.  The move to the Big 12 was seamless in this regard, as they ran 5.75 per carry and 235 yards per game.  Two RB’s exceeded six yards per carry, with lead RB Harvey rushing for 1,296 yards and 16 touchdowns. 

QB Plumtree is a run threat as well.  He missed three full games and most of a 4^th game, but still ran for 473 yards, a year after he ran for 862 yards.  He’s fairly accurate as a passer, but can be turnover-prone.  I project RB Harvey at 19-121, and Plumtree and #2 RB Richardson will likely combine to push UCF’s run total over 200, and maybe much more. 

I show Plumtree passing in excess of 200 yards, so suffice to say we will see plenty of offense in this game.  UCF’s 3^rd down offensive success rate was great at 50%.  The skilled position players have plenty of experience, and the WR’s have strong per-reception averages.  The overall unit (WR’s and TE’s) appears to be underrated. 

Defense Regressed, Kicking Isn’t Great

UCF’s run defense regressed a bit in their move to the Big 12.  They allowed 5.1-193 yards per game overall, and in Big 12 play, the numbers were 5.55-216 yards per game.  The area in which UCF is strongest is vs. the pass, but a deeper dive has the numbers a bit deceiving. 

The overall figure was a solid 57.5%, but they allowed 62% in Big 12 play.  UCF has a 27-22 sack ratio, but kicking was a bit erratic, at 12-19. 

Gasparilla Bowl Picks: Georgia Tech Strengths and Weaknesses

Georgia Tech (GT) had a rare down year rushing the ball in 2022 but more than made up for it this year, with a stat sheet of 5.45-199 yards-per-carry.  QB Haynes King ran at 6.0 per carry, with 9 TD’s.  Lead RB Jamal Haynes ran for 931 yards, 6.0 per carry, and 7 TD’s.  Run lanes will be open in this game (see UCF notes) and both players could thrive. 

In the pass game, King hit 62%, and threw for 26 TD’s, a major accomplishment for this team.  Unfortunately, he also had 15 interceptions.  UCF has one of the better pass defenses he will have seen, so this could be an issue.  My overall projections are 42-240 in the run game and near 60% in the pass game, for just under 200 yards. 

More Bad Defense!

GT’s run defense has been too high of late, allowing close to five yards per carry.  It was worse in 2023, at an abysmal 5.65-227 yards per game, including 28 rushing TD’s.  I suspect they will have their hands full with UCF’s rush attack. 

GT’s pass defense also regressed (62%).  Seven of nine bowl teams they faced scored at least 31 points, which makes sense as the stop unit was subpar.  GT only had 18 defensive sacks, and to make matters worse, their leading sacker (6) is in the transfer portal.  In better news, kicking woes seem to have subsided, as they posted a 14-16 success rate.  GT’s kick return defense was well below average.

Gasparilla Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Which team will play better defense?  Will UCF’s experience be the difference-maker.  GT loves the underdog role.  Should anyone be favored in this game?  Which QB will commit a costly turnover?

Gasparilla Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

UCF opened as a 4.5 point favorite, with a total of 61.  The total was quickly bet up, a move that I fully agree with (my play is over 62).  In an offensive shootout (hopefully), it’s hard to give points, especially when both teams have enough run-pass balance to take advantage of each other’s defenses. 

The Pick: Gasparilla Bowl Prediction!

The data supports UCF however, and I think they will hit bigger pass plays, which might be the difference.  I’ll lean their way, not wanting to give over three points. 

This game could come down to two things: Which team stays turnover-free, and which defense makes that one key stop.  Take a close look at the possible totals overs – be it points or player props – if the defense is as bad as we suspect, could be some value in those bets.

NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All

Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game – find it here each day.

WagerTalk’s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s college football live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books.

Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your NCAAF bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips? Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on and anytime touchdown scorer odds.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!