Gator Bowl Best Bets : Clemson vs Kentucky Free Picks, Predictions 12/29

Clemson Tigers vs Kentucky Wildcats Best Bets: Gator Bowl Predictions & Analysis

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky bites off some tasty picks on The Gator Bowl being played on December 29th, between Clemson and Kentucky. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top free picks and best bets here.

Clemson has been steadfastly against using the transfer portal to build its team, pointing instead to their success in building up the roster the traditional way. 

Welcome to 2023, and the Tigers seem to have fallen behind other presumed playoff caliber teams.  Kentucky has achieved goal number one.  They are a fixture now in the bowl season.  Unfortunately, they still seem far removed from doing any real damage in the SEC.  This is not one of the more exciting matchups on the bowl slate. 

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Gator Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Clemson Analysis

Clemson banked on Cade Klubnik being the answer at QB.  His 2023 numbers were adequate at 63%, with a modest (for the Tigers) 19-8 ratio.  He performed about as expected based on the defenses he faced.  In this case, he faces a Wildcat defense that allowed 67% vs. the pass. 

I have him projected to complete a high number of passes in this spot.  He’ll be down one impact WR, but he can target a quality TE and at least one other WR.  Clemson ran 4.6 per carry, which is a bit down from my expectations.  Both RB’s are good, and should be healthy.  The offense should be expected to be better in this spot.  The defense is always one of the best in the NCAA.

Clemson’s Defense Should Be Enough

Surprisingly, their run defense (3.2 per carry average past three seasons) slumped to 3.95 per carry, although the unit only allowed 121.5 yards per game (corrected for sacks using my formula).  As we’ll see below, this unit will be tested. 

After slumping the past two seasons, the pass defense regained its roar, allowing just 52.5%.  Only Miami topped 60% (Wake was exactly 60%).  Stop Kentucky’s rush attack and good things will happen.  Clemson will be without some key starters, as their top two sackers, two of their top three tacklers, and one stout CB will not play.  This will have at least some effect on their stop ability. 

Kicking was at times an adventure but there was modest improvement down the stretch (11-17).  Defensive sacks were down to 30 (41 and 41 previous two seasons).  They allowed 20 sacks.  The kick return defense was bad, and it may be critical that kicks become touchbacks, as Kentucky has the edge in this matchup.  In a slight surprise, Clemson was able to have a more than stout time of possession edge (+6:20). 

Gator Bowl Picks: Kentucky Analysis To Make Your Best Bets

A season after every Kentucky game went under the posted game totals, the Wildcats delivered some higher scoring games.  Games averaged 41 points a year ago.  In 2023 that average went up to 53.5, and that’s with the new clock rules (said to be about 7% fewer plays). 

Ray Davis ran 26-280 against Florida, helping this team to go from 4.0 per carry all the way up to 5.45.  He looks like the real deal.  Without that result he ran 4.9 per carry, but just 38-163 in the final three games.  This will be a great test, and my early projection is around 15-74.  QB Leary had a 46-9 TD to interception ratio, with 64% accuracy in a season and a half at North Carolina State. 

He’s disappointed here, going 56.3%, with a 24-10 ratio.  Take out the three early non-conference games vs. non-bowlers and he was 135-250 for 1595 yards and a 16-7 ratio.  When facing comparable defenses, he was 48%, but with a 7-3 ratio.  I have him under 50% for this game.  There’s decent WR talent for the Gator Bowl.

How’s Kentucky’s Defense?

While the pass defense % disappointed, the run defense improved from 4.4-151 yards allowed to 3.3 and 110.5 yards allowed.  I like both of Clemson’s RB’s but they will have to earn their yards in this spot.  Kentucky is only missing one starter for this game, so I like the challenges presented. 

The challenge in the pass game will be limiting yards after completion.  The Wildcats allowed a too high 44% 3^rd down conversion success rate.  Last year they had a +6:05 time of possession edge.  This year time of possession flipped to a -4:20 deficit.  Kentucky has the advantage is in the return game.  WR Brown is a threat vs. Clemons’s suspect coverage unit.  Kicking was good at 10-11.  The sack ratio was 27-20.  

Gator Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

How long will RB Davis play?  His presence is critical or else QB Leary will have his hands full.  The big chess match is Clemson’s two very good RB’s vs. Kentucky’s much improved rush defense.  Which team will have greater red zone success.  I prefer Clemson’s offense, and might call the defenses about even.  There’s a big special team edge for Kentucky in this Gator Bowl.  

Gator Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

I think we’ll get great effort from both teams.  The line opened Clemson -7 and stayed there for one week.  We’re now seeing Clemson -5 in the Gator Bowl.

The Pick: Gator Bowl Prediction!

If RB Davis plays the full game, then I would slightly favor the Wildcats.  The moment he leaves the game, I’d suggest Clemson as an in-game play.  No, I do not have Intel as to his intentions, so read the local papers and pay attention to the coaching conferences.  Clemson is my pick to win the game, but it would help if they shored up their special team play (both kicking and in the return defense).

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