Guaranteed Rate Bowl Free Picks : Kansas vs UNLV Free Picks, Best Bets 12/26

Kansas Jayhawks vs. UNLV Rebels Best Bets: Guaranteed Rate Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers high interest picks on The Guaranteed Rate Bowl being played on December 26th, between Kansas and UNLV. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.

Kansas is building something sustainable under solid Head Coach Lance Leipold.  They went 8-4, and my guess is they can’t wait to play football again in 2024 in the newly configured Big 12. 

As for UNLV, Barry Odom came in and won right off the bat.  Much of the schedule was kind, but no one expected anything close to nine wins.  Phoenix hosts an under the radar matchup between two teams who want to be here.  

Find free college football best bets and bowl game coverage this postseason.

New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks – Get Started Now!

 All FIRST TIME customers will receive 15% OFF anything and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!

Guaranteed Rate Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Kansas Overview

Kansas continues to be ahead of the curve offensively.  Only Texas and Texas Tech held them below 27 points, yet even in those two games Kansas combined to run for 70-332, or nearly 4.75 per carry. 

They ran 5.6-217 yards per game overall despite playing without their elite QB for about half the season.  QB Bean (61%, 12-4 ratio) lacks the same run skill set as does Daniels, but the two RB’s they have combined for 1,808 yards and 23 rushing touchdowns. 

This looks like another game where Kansas will threaten 6.0 yards-per-carry.  Therefore, I only project Bean to attempt 24 passes, which is dangerous for a bowl game projection (teams like to air it out more in bowl games), but fits what Kansas wants to do, which is break through and win a bowl game.  With four new DL, I projected Kansas to slip a bit to 5.1 yards allowed per carry. 

The defense has noticeably not improved as fast as the offense, which often happens for rebuilding teams.  Kansas allowed 4.8 per carry, about the same as in 2022.  UNLV will have run lanes open in this game.  The pass defense also regressed, to 66% allowed.  That makes it somewhat surprising that the Jayhawks allowed 27 or fewer points eight times. 

A couple of potent offenses were held below normal scoring averages.  Their sack ratio stayed decent at 25-15.  Kicking was average at 11-15.  The biggest issue with personnel is along the OL.  A freshman will start at left tackle, and two other OL have injury concerns.  

Guaranteed Rate Bowl Picks: UNLV Strengths and Weaknesses

UNLV was showing signs of life in 2022 and only missed a bowl game due to a late season slide.  I thought the staff could have been given one more year to build on 2022’s “success” but Odom was an upgrade and UNLV never looked back.  The rush ratio actually stayed flat, but UNLV has three capable RB’s whose rotation tends to vary from week to week. 

QB Maiva became more efficient (63%) and this is not a daunting challenge, facing a Kansas defense that still is a work in progress.  Yes, UNLV’s schedule was not all that difficult, but they scored 24 or more points in all but one regular season game (Michigan).  Kansas and their rush attack will be problematic.  UNLV for the season allowed 4.4 per carry, which is decent for them, but vs. Air Force and SJ St, two very powerful rush teams, the total was 101-579. 

UNLV’s pass defense (61%) was acceptable.  Fresno passed 27-41.  SJ St passed 19-26.  Those are my two comparisons, which means Kansas could have decent success in the pass game, complementing their run game.  UNLV has one of the best return specialists in the nation.  They also have a kicker who was 25-27.  In more good news, the sack ratio was 25-19.  The other concerns include a pass defense that allowed a way too high yards-per-completion figure, and a somewhat undisciplined team with a -200 penalty yard differential.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Will either team stop the run?  Which team will have more success in play-action passing, knowing that the defenses have to cheat up vs. the run?  Will UNLV’s special team edge make a difference?  

Guaranteed Rate Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

Kansas has the better QB and the best RB in this game, while UNLV has the best WR (White) and the better kicking game.  My Power Ratings suggest that the spread of 12.5 is fairly accurate (my number is 11), but the rush and point data suggest UNLV is the right side. 

Part of me feels like Kansas will hardly have to punt in this game, as QB Bean is pretty good, and the run game is way too efficient to have an issue, but I can’t discount the data, and it says UNLV will move the ball as well.  I’m slightly worried that QB Maiva could throw in a poor outing, but even with a big lead this matchup is suited to enable UNLV to backdoor cover.

The Pick: Guaranteed Rate Bowl Prediction!

 I’ll take UNLV to cover the spread, but predict Kansas gets that elusive bowl win.

NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All

Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game – find it here each day.

WagerTalk’s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s college football live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books.

Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your NCAAF bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips? Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on and anytime touchdown scorer odds.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!