Hawaii Bowl Predictions : Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State Free Picks, Best Bets 12/23

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs San Jose State Spartans Best Bets: Hawaii Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky says aloha with some hot picks on The Hawaii Bowl being played on December 23rd, between Coastal Carolina and San Jose State. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?

Both Coastal Carolina and San Jose St finished 7-5, but hoped for better.  For Coastal, QB injuries derailed the new staff.  San Jose State was the victim of computers.  They lost an opportunity to compete in the Mountain West title game despite a win at UNLV.  Regardless, coming to the island to play in a bowl game seems like a nice “consolation prize”. 

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The Hawaii Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Coastal Carolina Overview

Coastal ran 4.4 per carry, up a bit from 4.1 of a year ago.  Their top RB ran just 86 times, but reserve QB Vesko projects to 55 rush yards in this spot.  Vesko looked quite sharp in his start vs. James Madison, and he may surprise some folks here. 

The run defense regressed, from 3.85 per carry allowed to 4.6.  This is an obvious concern vs. a suddenly relevant SJ St rush attack (see below).  Coastal’s pass defense improved, and has a shot to contain the Spartans, but QB Cordeiro has plenty of experience and I suspect we’ll see some success thanks to their run attack being able to set up passing situations.  Nothing else really stood out when I dug through the stat sheet.  Two kickers combine to go 16-24.  The sack ratio was 29-16.  

Hawaii Bowl Picks: San Jose State Strengths and Weaknesses

 SJ St has had seasons where they ran 4.6 per carry, but in 2022 they ran 3.4-88 yards per game while still securing a bowl berth.  This year’s team broke records with a 5.9 per carry average.  They have a fantastic one-two RB punch, with each guy typically carrying the ball ten or more times. 

QB Cordeiro has loads of experience, and used to play in Hawaii.  In 2023 he passed at 62.3%, with a great 19-4 touchdown to interception ratio.  The WR unit is decent, but their lead TE is gone.  I like the backup TE, and he could outperform his seasonal numbers. 

What hurt this team is defensive regression.  After three years living at about 3.6 yards per-carry allowed, the number soared to 4.8.   SJ St is still picked via my rush stat formula, but this remains an area of concern.  The pass defense was its usual self at 61%.  Overall, I look for Coastal to be able to run and pass on SJ St, although not to any extreme numbers.  In 2022 SJ St had a +12 turnover ratio.  There was no regression, as the 2023 ratio was +13.  Kicking remained about the same at 10-14.  Last year’s 36-40 sack ratio became 23-19. 

That confirms my thought that Coastal will be able to have offensive rhythm, but it also shows that an experienced QB, coupled with a much-improved run game can help to reduce sacks taken.  Two other notes.  1^st, while SJ State delivered 30 rushing touchdowns, they also gave up 27 of their own.  2^nd, SJ St’s left tackle will not play in this game.  That could be a minor concern.  

Hawaii Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Coastal has to slow down SJ State’s running game, and at the same time, establish their own run attack.  Will the lack of experience of their QB (Vesko) be an issue?  SJ St could give Coastal confidence if the Spartans start out lethargic.  Will QB Cordeiro thrive in his old surroundings?  Beyond that, I lack other matchup indicators to flush out.

Hawaii Bowl Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

With yet another QB out of a bowl game it was hard to put a true Power Number on Coastal, even though two of their backups have seen time when the lead guy was hurt.  I show SJ St in a 53% rush category, which clearly carries minimal weight.

The Pick: Hawaii Bowl Prediction!

It’s early enough in the bowl season that I’d rather have the dog, but to win Vesko has to have a big game.  I’m more inclined to watch how the game starts out, and if satisfied, only then consider Coastal.

Here are some alternative recommendations: QB Vesko YES TD run and over his listed rushing yardage.  Sacks won’t likely be plentiful in this game, and that gives Vesko time to survey the field and take off running, especially if his team falls behind. 

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