Louisville vs USC Free Picks: Holiday Bowl Predictions, Best Bets 12/27

Louisville Cardinals vs USC Trojans Best Bets: Holiday Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky sips on a martini on the beach and drops expert picks on The Holiday Bowl being played on December 27th, between Louisville and USC. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?

Last year at this time it was felt that USC hit a home run hiring Lincoln Riley, even with their defensive issues.  The buzz around Riley has faded, but maybe it’s because the expectations were unreasonable.  I had a “down” year in season win total success, at approximately 29-14. 

Louisville was one of my misses, and this loss was well deserved.  There were some close calls, but overall, this team earned its way to ten wins.  This is the Holiday Bowl, one of the more prestigious games each December, yet USC doesn’t care that much, and Louisville, who should be excited, has some star players opting out.  What a shame.

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Holiday Bowl Preview: The Portal Factor

Like with the previous bowl writeup. I’m compelled to analyze what effect all the missing players will have on the game.  For Louisville, they will be missing lead WR James Thrash, lead RB Jawhar Jordan, and two decent defensive players.  The next man up at RB is Issac Guerendo, who himself ran for nearly six yards per carry.  The drop-off may only be slight. 

Losing Thrash hurts more, as his 63 receptions were more than double of the next option (26).  USC has seen 16 players either hit the portal or opt out, and that number could rise.  Notable names include presumed #1 QB in the 2024 NFL draft Caleb Williams, lead RB MarShawn Lloyd, plus solid WR and deep threat Brendan Rice. 

Most of the other players lost were once high impact signees whose best days are ahead of them.  The loss of Lloyd is significant unless a new RB emerges behind decent #2 option Austin Jones.  USC has a variety of pass catchers, but depth has been compromised, and Rice’s impact may be missed. 

As for QB, I think the raw Mitch Moss will do okay in Riley’s system, but you can’t just replace someone like Caleb Williams.  USC’s defense was again subpar in 2023, but like Louisville, the losses on this side of the ball are of lower impact.

Holiday Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Louisville Overview

QB Plummer is projected to hit about 65% in this game, but must cut down his interceptions.  USC is undergoing coaching turnover, so maybe he stays turnover-free vs. a defense that intercepted just six passes. 

Louisville easily bettered my 4.4 rush defense projection, allowing just 3.55 yards-per-carry.  With Lloyd out, that frees this team to spend a bit more time defensing the pass.  QB’s faced this year pale in comparison to Caleb Williams, but give Louisville credit for allowing only 54.3%.  Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) went 22-38, tossing three defensive interceptions. 

Miami passed 24-39.  Yes, I do know that Caleb isn’t here, but USC’s scheme is good enough to hit 60% in this spot.  The key will be to force mistakes from the young replacement.  The PK was average at 18-25.  Parts of the special team unit are below par.  The 3^rd down defense was excellent during the regular season, allowing just a 28% conversion rate.  Despite the inflated odds, Louisville is the rush pick.

Holiday Bowl Picks: USC Strengths and Weaknesses

USC once again averaged over five yards-per-carry (5.15), but I think it was more scheme related rather than true RB talent, even with Lloyd.  I think we’ll see regression in yards running in this spot.  Moss has at least two solid WR targets to throw to, so it’s up to the innovative offensive staff to make this work.  Not noted above is that Louisville had a 34-29 sack ratio. 

USC’s ratio is 27-33, which is flipped from 2022.  Given USC has the “new” QB, pass protection could be an issue.  Defensively, we all know USC has issues but remember, the PAC 12 was loaded with offensive talent this season. 

Facing Washington, Oregon and UCLA to close 2023 was never going to be easy.  Still, USC allowed 34 points to an average Utah offense, and 49 points to a much-improved Cal offense, but that number shows USC’s breakdowns. 

My comps for this game are Notre Dame and Arizona.  In those two games, USC allowed 89 points, 69-332 running, and 38-55 passing.  USC’s seasonal numbers were 35 points allowed, 5.05-190.5 on the ground, and nearly 63% through the air.  I don’t see USC magically improving on defense in this short period of time, so they need to have at least one interception, plus hope that the Cardinals are not as proficient running the ball without their lead back.  USC allowed 31 pass TD’s.  WR Branch is a dynamic punt returner (now they just need to force some punts).  The PK was 10-13.

Holiday Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Will USC take this game seriously?  How will QB Moss fare?  Defend Louisville’s pass rush and there’s hope.  If not, this could be problematic.  

Holiday Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

I don’t think USC “earned” this Holiday Bowl berth.  This team is athletic, but incomplete.  Louisville maintains its rush edge with both #1 RB options out for this game.  QB Moss is the X factor.

The Pick: Holiday Bowl Prediction!

 I’ll side with a token play on Louisville, but the line of more than seven does not interest me all that much.  I wish there was a better recommendation for games like this, but welcome to the 2023 bowl season, where handicapping QB’s with virtually no playing experience is happening all too often.

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