Independence Bowl Best Bets, California vs Texas Tech Picks – College Football 12/16

Independence Bowl Preview & Free Picks: California vs. Texas Tech Best Bets

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his tips on the Independence Bowl being played on December 16th, between California and Texas. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now!

Texas Tech went 7-5 in 2022 and expected to be even better in 2023.  Instead, they finished 6-6, needing three wins down the stretch to achieve bowl eligibility. 

California (Cal) needed to overcome early adversity, as they blew two winnable games and stood at just 3-6 for the season.  Their 33-7 win over UCLA got them bowl eligible.  Cal is happy to return to a bowl game, but how much will a bowl game in Louisiana inspire either fan base?

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Independence Bowl Picks and Best Bets: California Preview

Cal’s only signature win came vs. UCLA.  They had both Auburn and USC beat and lost both, with the Auburn game being a comedy of special team errors.  The good news is that Cal fixed their kicking game and went 8-9 with the new PK. 

The bad news is that for whatever reason, he’s in the transfer portal.  Fernando Mendoza hit 62.4% with a 13-7 touchdown to interception ratio.  I project 20 or 21 completions in 34 attempts for close to 220 yards here.  I’m exciting to see the RB matchup in this game, and fervently hope both Jaydn Ott and Texas Tech’s Tajh Brooks play.  Ott ran for 1,260 yards and 11 touchdowns and caught 21 passes.  I have him at 20-99 in this game.  I like the WR unit, and TE Endries is solid as well. 

There’s partial buzz that a WR or two may skip the game, but so far, they plan to play.  The only offensive negative is losing their fine one-year coordinator, who got a huge pay raise to jump ship (Baylor).

California Defensive Numbers

Playing in this year’s PAC 12 was no bargain for any defense.  I projected Cal to allow 4.25 vs. the run and 63% vs. the pass.  The seasonal numbers ended up at 4.15 and 63% so my numbers were accurate, and not a sign that Cal’s defense was regressing. 

They will play yet another offensive-minded team in this game, and do so without some key players, including their leading tackler.  Cal had a modest 23-18 sack ratio. 

Independence Bowl Best Bets & Betting Advice

Independence Bowl Picks: Texas Tech Strengths and Weaknesses

Texas Tech scored 33 points per game in 2022 and surprisingly regressed to 27 per game this season.  They were competitive in every game this year until the 57-7 blowout loss at Texas.  QB Morton hit 62% with a 12-7 ratio. 

Unfortunately, his 155 completions went for just 1,498 yards.  Based on quality of opponent, I show him having a solid game vs. Cal, projecting 22-33 for 240 yards.  Of course, check weather reports before game time.  RB Brooks ran 268-1,443, carrying the ball 30 or more times in four games.  I have him going 25-133 in this one. 

It’s quite common to see this team have a variety of pass-catching options.  Two of their top three WR’s will be missing from this game.  The only other noticeable loss is their left tackle.  Tech allowed just 23 sacks this year, down from 39 in 2022.  Luckily for them, Cal is not a real good pass rushing team.

Texas Tech Defense

Cal is a solid run team as noted above, but Texas Tech’s run defense was at 4.1 per carry prior to their last three games, all vs. even stronger run teams (Kansas, UCF and Texas).  One of Tech’s best DL will miss the game due to injury. 

For the season, Tech had a -8 turnover ratio (17 offensive interceptions with their three QB’s), 22 defensive sacks, and a modest kicking game (14-19), but their PK did make three kicks in excess of 50 yards.  Tech has a huge return game edge, and could break off a big return in this game.

Independence Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Will Cal regress in the kicking game, and could there be an issue in the return game?  Can Cal’s defense help win the battle of turnovers? 

Will Cal’s experience playing against the PAC 12’s elite slate of QB’s pay off in this spot?  Will Texas Tech’s experience playing against some elite RB’s and run games pay off in this spot?

Independence Bowl Best Bets – The Decision & Predictions

In a surprise, Cal comes in as the rush pick, and the category is decent.  The portal count is basically a wash, with the exception being at kicker. 

Yes, Cal is the rush pick, but I lean Texas Tech due to site of game (I doubt Cal will travel or be all that excited), the loss of their kicker, the loss of their talented offensive coordinator, who transformed this offense in just one short season, and the possibility that Texas Tech makes good on their return game advantage.  Cal and Texas Tech fans might not be all that excited, but I can’t wait to see these two RB’s in action.

The Pick

Edge goes to Texas Tech, take ’em moneyline, possibly spread.

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