Iowa State vs Memphis Free Picks: Liberty Bowl Massive Predictions, Best Bets 12/29

Iowa State Cyclones vs Memphis Tigers: Liberty Bowl Super Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his free analysis of The Liberty Bowl being played on December 29th, between Iowa State and Memphis. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?

Iowa State (ISU) was trending down after a rough couple of seasons.  7-5 doesn’t sound like much but the Cyclones did a few things right and there’s renewed hope moving forward.  Memphis and Cincinnati are similar to me. 

Both have more than just good football programs and in fact, have had historic runs in basketball.  Timing is everything, and Cincinnati made it to the Power Five.  Memphis had a strong year at 9-3, but no one is talking about them.  This is an interesting game.

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Liberty Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Iowa State Overview

ISU Improved from 3.85 yards-per-carry to 4.65 yards-per-carry.  It should be noted that they stood at just 4.05 prior to the finale at Kansas State.  RB Samu emerged, and could see workhorse action here.  I’ve charted him rushing 20-115, which is fluid depending on who plays alongside him (some injuries and two portal entries).  Freshman QB Becht (63.5%, 20-8 ratio) was consistent all season long. 

I’ve charted him at 18-28 for 225 yards, but am concerned that the Cyclones may pass too much in this game.  All WR’s are slated to play, as are the starting five along the OL. 

Liberty Bowl Picks: Iowa State Has a Solid Defense and Good Kicking

The defense was decent (4.0) vs. the run and surprisingly strong against the pass (projected 61%, achieved 54.5%).  The two areas which stood out are allowing just 11 rushing TD’s, and securing a +8 interception ratio. 

They’ll face a highly experienced QB and will likely allow 60+% in this spot. There are some injuries in the secondary that might affect team depth.   ISU had a modest 21-12 sack ratio.  Kicking was decent at 19-24.  WR Noel has a strong kick return presence.  The return defense is excellent.  

Liberty Bowl Best Bets – Take a Look at Memphis

Memphis is the home team in this matchup, which can be a positive indicator, especially since they get to host a Power Five school.  ISU does travel well however, and in bowl games, tickets are distributed differently.  QB Henigan has passed for over 10,000 yards in his career.  Playing at home has to be a perk.  I have him throwing for over 270 yards in this spot. 

Memphis has put quite a few RB’s in the NFL.  2023 transfer RB Watson has over 3,000 career yards on the ground and he ran 5.9 per carry this season, with 14 TD’s on the ground, and he also caught 50 passes for another three TD’s.  ISU could slow him down, but is unlikely to completely stop him.  Two starting OL are in the portal. 

If they do not play, that might slightly lower expectations.  Defensively, only the secondary will be impacted by injury and the portal.  The DL is unaffected, but the rush defense slumped a full yard this past season to 4.75 allowed per carry (not adjusted for sacks). 

The pass defense slightly improved, to 60.8%.  Both teams might be able to move the ball in this game.  Memphis had a modest 21-19 sack ratio.  Their main kicker was 9-11.  Their 3^rd down success ratio was strong (offense and defense).  

Liberty Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

ISU prevented rushing TD’s, while the Memphis offense produced 30 rushing TD’s.  Who wins this battle?  Memphis has the more experienced QB, but overall, the slightly weaker defense.  The defensive gap might be more pronounced when one considers the strength of opponents faced.  Can Memphis stop a Power Five team?

Liberty Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

The data is close enough that any slight edge (Memphis) is not by itself meaningful.  Home field bowl dogs are generally decent plays, but as noted above, ISU travels well.  What I like about Memphis is their experience at QB and in the WR/TE room, coupled with a strong run-pass balance.

The Pick: Liberty Bowl Prediction!

I like the progress ISU made this year and I like the staff, but I’ve never been a big fan of laying over a touchdown with this team.  I’m going to take the points (currently 9.5) and see what happens.

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