Iowa vs Tennessee Free Picks : Citrus Bowl Best Bets, #1 Predictions 1/1

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Tennessee Volunteers Best Bets : Citrus Bowl Analysis & Massive Predictions

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers some tart picks on The Citrus Bowl being played on January 1st, between Iowa and Tennessee. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.

I admit it.  I am fascinated with Iowa football.  Maybe I was the only one, but I couldn’t stop watching their offense or their defense, clearly for vastly different reasons.  By contrast, Tennessee plays offense at warp speed. 

Sadly, I just learned that QB Milton will opt-out of this game (this preview is being written on 12/27).  Regardless, this should be a fun one to handicap.  

Find free college football best bets and bowl game coverage this postseason.

New Customers Get 15% Off ALL Premium Expert Bowl Game Picks – Get Started Now!

 All FIRST TIME customers will receive 15% OFF anything and everything in their cart on their first purchase! There is no cap or limit, including from daily to long-term, and the discount is automatic with no coupon code needed!

Citrus Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Iowa Overview

Iowa’s offensive troubles are well documented.  In Big Ten play they averaged about 14.5 points per game.  They averaged a paltry 13 1^st downs per game.  QB Hill was pressed into action at the end of September. 

He’s completed just over 49% of his passes, with five touchdowns and six interceptions.  RB Williams was strong, averaging 4.95 per carry. 

RB Johnson did not reach four yards-per-carry.  Overall, for all games, Iowa “improved” to 3.9 per carry.  This could be a problem vs. Tennessee’s improved run defense.

Iowa Defensive Analysis

Coaching continuity on the defensive side of the ball has produced consistently solid results.  Defensive interceptions were down this year, but historically, the Hawkeyes are top five in this metric.  For the 4^th year in a row, the run defense was in the 3.3 to 3.4 yards allowed per carry range.  Penn State ran 57-215.  Wisconsin ran 28-105.  

In the Big Ten Title game (where Iowa’s offense was completely outclassed), Michigan ran just 32-104, with the figures corrected for sacks.  Most other teams were held way down.  Tennessee is a step up in class and athleticism, but as you will see below, will be missing their top two RB’s.  For at least the 6^th straight season, Iowa’s pass defense was at 58% or lower. 

This year’s figure was 56%, and yards-per-reception at a fantastic number of under nine yards per catch.  Iowa’s kicker slumped to 19-27.  The sack ratio was mediocre at 27-28.  They have a solid kick returner.  Finally, they hold a +306 penalty yardage edge.

Citrus Bowl Video Picks

Citrus Bowl Picks: How’s Tennessee Look?

 Tennessee averaged 47.5 points per game in 2022, mostly with Henson Hooker at QB.  The offense was held to 31.5 points per game in 2023, and just 24 points per game in the SEC.  With Milton out, 6’6” freshman Nico Iamaleava takes over. 

He was 16-26, seeing action only in mop-up duty vs. very weak teams.  This could be an issue.  It’s too bad the top RB’s will miss this game, as the Vols ran at a 5.7 per carry clip in 2023.  I like RB Sampson (471 yards, 5.5 per carry), so let’s see what he can do vs. this solid defense, one that should not have to defend the pass quite as much without QB Milton. 

Tennessee schemes well offensively, so this will be interesting.  Once porous vs. rush attacks, Tennessee has shown great progress in this area.  They allowed just 3.55 per carry in 2022, and 3.5 this season.  It’s hard to compare SEC style rush attacks with the Big Ten.  I believe Iowa will be slowed down, but can achieve their seasonal average in this spot.  Tennessee would have had the rushing edge at full strength, but that’s not the case. 

This is the 4^th straight season where the pass defense had some issues.  The 2023 version regressed to 67%.  Luckily, this is about the bottom of the barrel for QB’s they will have faced.  UConn passed 25-42, but scored three points.  Vandy passed 21-32 and scored 24 points.  Amazingly, Iowa’s QB should have some success in this spot. 

Kicking was solid at 19-24.  The sack ratio markedly improved to 36-18.  One of their top three sack specialists is in the portal, and another is listed as playing, but did not suit up in their last game.  How fast does Tennessee run their offense? 

For the 2^nd straight season, time of possession was at -11:30.  That’s an amazing figure.  One final note.  Tennessee was penalized for 371 more yards than their opponents.  The penalty disparity numbers for these teams is quite large.    

Citrus Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Will Iowa’s low accuracy QB have success vs. Tennessee’s poor pass defense?  Can Iowa’s rush game wear down Tennessee’s defense?  What game plan will Tennessee have with the new QB, and can it be run at the same frenetic pace that they usually employ? 

How will RB Sampson fare?  Can Tennessee’s pass rush deliver, possibly at less than full strength?  Finally, is there any way Tennessee can keep this severe penalty differential in check?

The Pick: Citrus Bowl Prediction And BETTING PICK!

This chess match is one of my favorite handicaps of the bowl season.  I took Iowa +8 earlier in the week, before the news of Milton.  The line is either a soft 7, or a 6.5 pushing 7 right now. 

Taking seven points is my recommendation.  Maybe Iowa’s vanilla offense will fail, but even if inconsistent, I think one or two splash pass plays are available vs. Tennessee’s pass defense. 

Also in Iowa’s favor is their fundamentally sound defense, which will face a QB who may find the going rough.  The main worry is Tennessee’s team speed, which shows up at WR and in the pass rush.  Let’s ride old school in this game.

NCAAF Bowl Coverage: WagerTalk Has It All

Looking for even more college football coverage? Wagertalk will be provided bowl game predictions and previews for each CFB bowl game – find it here each day.

WagerTalk’s Live Bowl Game Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s college football live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books.

Track college football moneylines, spreads and betting percentages for all bowl games and monitor your NCAAF bowl games picks, including moneyline, spread bets, and totals betting.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips? Go beyond the anytime touchdown scorer picks!

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on and anytime touchdown scorer odds.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!