Boise State vs UCLA Predictions: LA Bowl Best Bets, Picks – College Football 12/16

LA Bowl Preview & Free Picks: Boise State vs. UCLA Best Bets

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his tips on theLA Bowl being played on December 16th, between Boise State and UCLA. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now!

Boise made a coaching change during the season and excelled down the stretch going 4-0, which included a Mountain West title game victory.  UCLA showed amazing improvement defensively but their prolific run game regressed mid-season after a spectacular start. 

Both teams are dealing with coaching and player turnover.  This is a weird one to handicap, as UCLA stays in its own backyard, playing close to home. 

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LA Bowl Picks and Best Bets: Boise State Preview

Boise turned to QB Green almost exclusively down the stretch, but both Green and QB Madison helped the offense score 30 or more points in ten of their final eleven games, with the other game resulting in a 27-19 victory over Air Force.  Boise’s rush ratio was 5.45-4.15, and the yardage differential was 219-132.  Boise has two very experienced RB’s, and both are playing (thus far) in this bowl game. 

Air Force’s run defense is really good, and Boise was “held” to 37-184 in that game.  UCLA’s run defense is even better, and who wins this battle may help decide the game.  The bigger issue now becomes the pass game.  While Green was not a prolific passer, he showed improved accuracy and the ability to escape the pocket and buy time.  Both Green and Madison are OUT for this game. 

The new QB will never have taken a snap for the Broncos.  My take is that this puts tremendous pressure on Boise’s defense to overperform. 

Boise State Defensive Numbers

For the season they allowed 25 points per game, but the unit was better down the stretch.  The run defense was acceptable but weaker than in 2022.  The pass defense was definitely weaker, coming in at 60% (51% in 2022). 

I project UCLA to exceed 60% in this game.  Boise boasts a 36-14 sack ratio.  Will pass protection be compromised with the raw QB?  I’ll discuss UCLA’s sack ratio and situation below.  Kicking was solid at 21-24 but some parts of the return game are below standard and could be of concern.

LA Bowl Best Bets And Betting Advice

LA Bowl Bowl Picks: UCLA Strengths and Weaknesses

Chip Kelly knows offense. The soft non-conference schedule produced a 7.75 per-carry average, but the rush figures in just the PAC 12 games came in at a more modest 4.8 per carry, dropping the seasonal per-carry figure to 5.15.  UCLA did not play Oregon or Washington this season.  My preseason projection was 5.3 per carry, so UCLA performed about as expected. 

Good Team, But Bad Kicking and Questionable Motivation…

What I didn’t expect was a 2.85-83 yards allowed per game rushing defense.  Utah ran just 46-116.  Oregon State ran 27-142, but the Beavers had situational edges in that game and were “expected” to win.  USC ran for just 23 yards via my rush formula.  California ran for just 127 yards.  UCLA limited many of their opponents well below their seasonal rush averages.  This matchup vs. two solid RB’s is a good one.  While Boise rushed for 32 TD’s, UCLA only permitted three TD’s on the ground.  T

he Bruin’s used three QB’s in 2023 and will turn to Ethan Garbers for this matchup.  Garbers hit 66% and was clearly not as turnover-prone as departed freshman QB Dante Moore.  UCLA has two capable WR’s, but after that its more hit or miss.  I believe Garbers will have passing success in this game (projected 19-28) but could be sack prone.  Any Chip Kelly RB room is solid, but there’s a chance lead RB Carson Steele may not play. 

Check the newswire closely on this one.  Defensively, UCLA loses their one-year coordinator, amazingly to rival USC.  They also are set to lose Laiatu Latu, who had 13 of their 41 defensive sacks this season, along with three DB’s who played plenty of minutes.  The early question is how seriously will UCLA take this game? 

For the season, UCLA’s sack ratio was 41-42.  It’s hard to fathom how far UCLA’s kicking game has fallen.  Their two kickers were a combined 8-17, going 2-4 from 20-29 yards, and 1-6 from 40 yards on out.  

LA Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Can Boise run the ball, or will UCLA shut down the run, forcing a raw QB to win via the pass?  What’s the effect of UCLA losing their defensive coordinator, their leading pass rusher, and three DB’s?  Will UCLA’s offensive line hold up vs. a decent Boise pass rush? 

Is Boise going to be vulnerable to UCLA’s pass attack if they can’t win via the pass rush?

LA Bowl Best Bets – The Free Picks & Predictions

This one is clearly tricky.  I only project Boise’s two RB’s to run 29-110, but that could be low considering all the defensive changes.  If it’s accurate, then UCLA’s QB advantage will likely be enhanced.  Boise gets an added benefit if UCLA’s leading rusher does not play. 

At full strength, UCLA has the rush advantage.  I show kicking favoring Boise, and I might add that motivation is on Boise’s side as well, with one exception.  I have no current lean in this game, but that could change.  I do like QB Garbers in this spot, but his OL has to protect him in order for the pass game to have maximum effect.

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