Washington vs Michigan Free Picks – Winner & Spread Prediction, Player Prop Picks & Best Bets
Washington Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines Best Bets : Best Prop Bets & Free Picks – UPDATED!
Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers some the ultimate betting picks on the College Football Championship being played on January 8th, between Washington & Michigan. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? It’s go time!
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After two extremely exciting semifinal games we’ve reached the end of the 2023 NCAA football season. It’s 14-0 Washington vs. 14-0 Michigan for the right to claim the trophy. Let’s look at some possible player prop bets, recap last week’s action and then analyze this matchup.
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Washington vs Michigan Player Props Top Picks
- WR Odunze OVER 89.5 receiving yards : 1 unit
- QB Penix YES interception (+175, numerous shops) ½ unit
- RB Edwards OVER 14.5 receiving yards ¼ unit
Follow me on twitter@ronacesports for any additional player prop recommendations, as I am waiting for certain additional offerings to be listed.
Washington vs Michigan Championship Game Predictions and Best Bets: Will Washington Win?
The big story in this game could be Michigan’s pass rush vs. Washington’s OL, which has allowed just eleven sacks this season. I project Penix to attempt 40 or more passes, especially if Dillon Johnson is unable to recover from his injury, which occurred while the Huskies were attempting to wind down the clock.
Even if he plays, I have Johnson going for under 45 rushing yards, and it’s possible that number will be quite a bit lower.
There’s so many strong WR targets on this team that the Huskies might get away with the lack of a balanced attack. Like with the last game, I have Odunze over 100 yards, and I expect at least two big pass plays of 30+ yards in this game.
Washington vs Michigan Ultimate Video Preview
Washington Defense – Can It Handle Michigan?
Defensively, Washington must prepare for Michigan to attempt to run repeatedly in this game. As I noted in last week’s preview, RB’s Corum and Edwards did not run to their 2022 numbers. Washington did a nice job of defending the pass in 2023, and did a nice job last week.
They will not face the same quality of WR/TE talent in this game (Texas clearly has more talent in this aspect than does Michigan), but they will face an accurate QB in McCarthy.
Winning defensively on the early downs will be critical. I do not expect Washington to have much success in their pass rush. I find it perplexing that the Huskies only produced 19 regular season sacks, as the talent is there.
College Championship Free Picks and Bets – Can the Wolverines Win?
Michigan will be facing a vastly different offense in this game. The Wolverines only allowed seven pass TD’s (regular season), but this will be challenging. They will try to blitz (at times), but when the blitz fails, Penix is likely to make Michigan pay.
It all comes down to Penix and if he gets in rhythm. My projection is that Michigan will run in excess of 200 yards in this game. I noted last week that backup RB Edwards ran for 7.1 per carry in 2022, but just 3.5 per carry this season.
He ran four times for eleven yards last week, and did not catch a pass. He caught 30 passes for an 8.5 per reception average during the season.
He averaged 11.1 yards-per-reception in 2022. I give Edwards a 50-50 shot to break off a long run or pass play in this game based on Washington’s defensive profile, but something is going on with the offense, as both RB’s did not produce nearly the number of splash plays this past season as they did in 2022.
How Much will Michigan Pass the Ball?
Michigan has several competent WR’s, led by Roman Wilson. TE Colston Loveland is decent as well. They can have success in this matchup if the run game works as expected. While I expect McCarthy to attempt at least a couple of deep passes, Michigan’s dream scenario is that McCarthy passes no more than 25 times.
Finally, there was no evidence that Michigan would have special team issues coming into last week’s game. Their performance vs. Alabama should translate into spending additional time on special team fundamentals.
College Football Championship Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:
The biggest battlelines are Washington’s pass protection vs. Michigan’s pass rush, and Michigan’s attempt to establish and dominate in the run game vs. Washington’s vulnerable run defense.
Other Washington keys are getting Penix in rhythm (requires help by Washington getting off the field on 3rd down and/or having Penix throw some easy short passes to get him going) and winning defensively on early downs. Other Michigan keys are preventing the big pass completion to one of Washington’s WR’s (and their TE), and fixing last week’s special team miscues.
CFP Championship Picks & Predictions
My Power Numbers have this Michigan by 7. My rush numbers also favor Michigan, as do my point stat indicators. Is this a sign that Jim Harbaugh gets that elusive trophy? It’s the title game, but forty years of doing this has me well grounded in NEVER forcing a play.
Would I be surprised if Washington won or covered? Not at all, as their offensive attack is something Michigan rarely sees, and their coaching staff is quite innovative. Underdogs to Oregon twice and to Texas once, they can play the disrespected card yet again.
We could know early on if Washington’s run defense isn’t up to the challenge, and/or if Michigan is unable to contain Washington’s aerial attack.
The Pick: College Football Title Expert Betting Pick!
I’m looking at Michigan minus 4 as the play.
Michigan vs. Alabama Quick Takeaways:
After a really shaky start, Michigan bore down and got itself back in the game. I felt they were slightly outplayed, with Alabama moving the chains by running the ball against Michigan’s front four. It took some highlight reel catches to get this game to overtime, and once there, an ill-advised Alabama play call in overtime to seal the victory.
QB McCarthy regained his confidence and accuracy in the 2nd half, finishing 17-27, with three pass TD’s. Blake Corum runs hard and finishes, but was held in check until overtime. Michigan was facing a stout Alabama run defense, and while they ran 30-133, the regulation numbers were 28-108. Michigan allowed 16 of 23 pass attempts to be completed, but only for 116 yards.
Alabama QB Milroe was much more comfortable running the ball, and he would have tallied over 100 rushing yards if you take away the sacks. Michigan was ferocious in their pass rush, leading to a 6-1 sack advantage. Kicking, and for that matter, special team play overall was substandard. That needs to be shored up.
Washington vs Texas Analysis Recap:
While there were some scary moments, I felt Washington was the better team most of the way. Michael Penix was laser sharp, and was in rhythm for most of the game. As I said in their preview, when he’s in rhythm, that offense is nearly unstoppable.
He completed over 75% of his passes for 430 yards. WR Odunze is an elite target, and he had help, as the Huskies have four capable targets. RB Johnson was held to just 49 yards on 21 carries. I applaud Washington for sticking to the run game, and he did rush for two TD’s. Texas allowed 24-43 through the air (318 yards).
The percentage was held down a little more than expected, and while yardage was high, Texas had its own outstanding stable of WR/TE targets. Washington allowed 28-180 on the ground, and three rushing touchdowns. It was unrealistic to think Washington would shut down Texas, but some of the yardage was attained too easily. Washington’s sack ratio was 2-0. This OL is great in pass protection, which is a good sign. Kicking was 3-3.
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