Tulane vs Virginia Tech Free Picks: Military Bowl Predictions, Best Bets 12/27
Tulane Green Wave vs Virginia Tech Hokies Best Bets: Military Bowl Preview & Prediction
Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his service to some expert picks on The Military Bowl being played on December 27th, between Tulane and Virginia Tech. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?
Tulane is an interesting case study into what happens when things start to go right. Winning can be contagious, and even though the 2023 Green Wave team was clearly weaker as compared to the 2022 version, they still won 11 games.
Virginia Tech needed a season ending win over rival Virginia to reach 6-6. The Hokies will take that, as they hope to build this program back to its former level under the 2nd year coaching staff.
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Military Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Tulane Overview
Tulane went through a stretch of games where they barely survived. They won four straight games by a total of 14 points, all vs. lower-level opponents. 2022 was a magical season, capped off by a thrilling bowl victory over USC. This year, points scored went way down (27), the rush attack was way down (4.1 per carry, 5.15 in 2022) and the pass game was not as efficient.
They enter this bowl game with massive changes to their roster. Head Coach Willie Fritz left for Houston, and many of his coaching staff will join him. In an interesting twist, his support staff is staying behind to coach in this bowl game. Offensively, QB Pratt, lead WR Brazzell and TE Bauman will not play. Tulane has a solid RB in Hughes (1,290-5.3 per carry) that may need to do the heavy lifting in this spot.
I project him to exceed 100 yards vs. a Virginia Tech run defense that can be vulnerable (see below). The concern is trotting out a raw QB, as 6’5” Justin Ibieta is actually the 3rd stringer and attempted one pass in 2023. Tulane allowed 27 sacks this season, but faces a Hokie defense that achieved 38 defensive sacks. This is task #1 for the offensive line.
Tulane Defense Analysis:
Defensively, Tulane improved mightily vs. the run, allowing just 3.05 per carry (not adjusted for sacks via my formula). Almost every team on their schedule was held below seasonal averages. This is a good sign.
The pass defense secured 17 interceptions, but the pass percentage allowed went from 58.5% up to over 65% this season. Virginia Tech has a capable (not elite) QB who will have success here, especially with the Green Wave missing a trio of defensive starters.
Kicking was decent at 19-24. Tulane had 34 sacks of their own this year, but will be missing two of their four most prominent pass rushers. Tulane has the edge in the kick return game, with a solid specialist going against a vulnerable KR defense.
Military Bowl Picks: Virginia Tech Strengths and Weaknesses
The Hokies weren’t perfect, but clearly improved as the season went along. They stood at 3.45 rushing per carry until a more than solid 35-209 outing vs. Florida State’s excellent defense. The final per-carry average was 4.8, with QB Drones helping to lead the way. I see Virginia Tech trying to establish their improved rush attack vs. Tulane’s fine rush defense. They have modest receiving talent, but although Tulane may be vulnerable vs. the pass, the best path for winning might be if Drones attempts fewer than 30 passes in this game.
Virginia Tech – The Kicking Game Return Defense is a Weakness
The run defense stayed flat (4.1-160 yards per game). Pittsburgh ran just 24-60. Syracuse ran 28-42. Louisville ran 38-231. These are my comparisons, which adds up to 90-333. I think Tulane’s fine RB might be more successful, but the Hokies might be able to pay more attention to stopping the run with Pratt not playing.
As I write this (12/21), only TE Wright may miss this game for the Hokies. Virginia Tech’s sack ratio was 38-23. Kicking was great at 20-22. As noted above, their kick return defense is not very good. They do have a good return game offense.
Military Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:
Can Tulane’s offensive line protect for a raw QB, given Virginia Tech’s fine pass rush? Who wins in the run game? Virginia Tech’s last seven weeks saw them run the football with highly successfully (255-1,478). Tulane allowed 3.05 per carry. What can we make of Tulane’s coaching situation?
Military Bowl Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions
Those backing Virginia Tech will point to the Hokies being at full strength for this game, both in players and on the coaching front, although I believe having most of the Tulane staff stay for the bowl game may not be all that negative.
Of course, Virginia Tech backers will point to Tulane’s QB situation and their seasonal improvement as other reasons to be excited. Tulane backers hope that their RB will have a big day, and that their run defense will hold up well in this spot. It’s also possible that they win in the return game and show enough in their own pass rush to slow down the Hokies.
A “normal” line for this game would have been less than three points. With Pratt out, the line ballooned to Tulane -8. As of 12/21, Tulane is favored by 10.5. I have two negative situations against the Green Wave, but yes, here we go again with trying to predict how a team will fare using a QB with virtually no experience.
The Pick: Military Bowl Prediction!
Lean Virginia Tech with the points, but I’d be more comfortable watching a series or two to see how the QB responds, and if satisfied, play the Hokies in-game.
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