Music City Bowl Free Picks : Auburn vs Maryland Best Bets, #1 Predictions 12/30

Auburn Tigers vs Maryland Terrapins Best Bets : Music City Bowl Analysis & Massive Predictions

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers some tuneful betting picks on The Music City Bowl being played on December 30th, between Maryland and Auburn. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.

Auburn’s claim to fame in 2023 was losing close games to Georgia and to Alabama, the latter due to a final play miracle TD. 

They finished 6-6, with exactly ZERO signature wins.  Maryland finished 7-5, but closed the season with a 2-5 record. 

This team was built to make some noise in 2023, so the result has to be a bit disappointing.  The matchup itself is a bit interesting, but players, coaches and fans may not be quite as enthusiastic.  

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Music City Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Auburn Overview

Lead QB Thorne was 62.6% with a 15-9 ratio.  Players are going to be missing on Maryland’s defense, but as of 12/26, I’m only projecting 15-26, for 170+ yards.  He brings a rushing dynamic to the table and I expect 30+ rushing yards in this game. 

RB Hunter (865.5.9 per carry) needs to be a very important part of the game plan.  Maryland’s run defense surprisingly improved in 2023, so this will be a nice battle to watch unfold.  There’s not been much trust in the WR unit, but two targets are capable of making plays in the short to middle range of the field. 

Auburn has had five weeks to get over the Alabama loss, and needs to unwrap this offense more than what they have done.

Can Auburn’s Defense Hold Fast?

Defensively, the Tigers had a dismal performance vs. the run in 2022.  They only slightly improved this year, to 4.65 allowed per carry.  I suspect Maryland will try and establish the run due to their opt-outs (see below), so here’s another run game challenge. 

Auburn’s pass defense was average, which was a slight disappointment.  It might improve here, but only due to Maryland inserting a raw QB.  Kicking was perfect at 13-13.  The sack ratio was 28-21.  The 3^rd down defense was stout, but two CB’s are in the portal.

Music City Bowl Video Picks

Music City Bowl Picks: Maryland Strengths and Weaknesses

Every year I publish a bottom five coaches list.  By the end of the year at least two of them are fired, and most are fired the following year.  Few coaches EVER ascend out of that list.  I

I’m a fan of Maryland’s coach as a recruiter but not a fan on game day.  Tua’s brother Taulia was a reliable QB for years, but he’s opted out of this game.  New QB Edwards had one start last year but completed four passes for two yards this year. 

If forced to throw much, this would be advantage, Auburn.  RB Henby (4.9 per carry) projects to 16 carries (77+ yards) in this game.  I also project him to be a part of the aerial game.  Maryland’s top three WR’s have been ultra-consistent all season long. 

I’m not sure how they’ll fare with Edwards at QB but I do expect the same type of usage.

Despite losing all four DL from 2022, Maryland’s run defense and pass rush improved.  These two run games chart out about equal. 

Like Auburn, Maryland is likely going to be without two starting CB’s.  Auburn has the less dynamic WR unit, but has the more experienced QB.  I’m starting to believe that these teams grade out very similar for this game.  Kicking was not great, at 12-18.  The sack ratio was 31-26.  Even with Taulia, time of possession figures were below average.  The kick return defense is not good.

Music City Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Who establishes the run game?  Maryland has to or else their young QB is projected to have turnover issues.  Auburn must do the same, as otherwise the pass rush could impact things, plus their WR’s are not as dynamic. 

Will Auburn’s special team edge (kicking, kick return defense) matter?  What’s an accurate adjustment to make for Maryland’s QB change?

Music City Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

On 12/19 the line was Auburn -2.5/3.  With Taulia out, the line has moved up to -7 in many spots.  I missed the move, and honestly, did not anticipate Taulia would be the type of QB to skip the game.  I’ll pass now.

The Pick: Music City Bowl Prediction!

Recommendations: Take a look at potential rushing yards OVER for Hunter and Hemby (no posted totals yet), and consider YES, on QB Edwards to throw an interception.

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