Myrtle Beach Bowl Predictions: Georgia Southern vs Ohio Picks & Best Bets – College Football 12/16

Myrtle Beach Bowl Preview & Predictions: Georgia Southern vs Ohio Best Bets

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his tips on The Myrtle Beach Bowl being played on December 16th, between Georgia Southern and Ohio. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now!

Georgia Southern returns to a bowl game but is going 6-6 all that great?  Ohio had a solid season, going 9-3, but rival Miami edged them out in the standings.  Bowl season kicks off with six Saturday games.  

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Myrtle Beach Bowl Picks and Best Bets: Georgia Southern Preview

At first glance, Georgia Southern’s overall profile isn’t that much different from the 2022 version.  A closer look reveals that the team has made improvements defending the run.  Last year they allowed 240 rush yards per game, at a very poor 5.75 per carry.  

Numbers like that often spell doom for a bowl team, and Georgia Southern lost outright (favored by 4) to Buffalo.  This year, the run numbers are 4.55 allowed per carry, and just 155 yards allowed per game.  Two areas have declined.  The Eagles allowed over 62% through the air to opposing QB’s, after allowing 59% a year ago. 

Georgia Southern’s Players Are Almost All Playing!

Sacks allowed are way up, from a spectacular seven allowed in 2022 to 29 allowed this year.  As of this writing, most, if not all of their starters are expected to play, a theme that will NOT be present throughout this bowl season. 

I’ve studied QB’s for over 30 years.  QB Brin is one of the most turnover-prone players I’ve ever covered.  He’s thrown 40 interceptions in the past three seasons (34 games).  RB White did not play in their season finale.  I project a 15-60 stat line for him, so Brin has to be more accurate in this game.  There’s enough talent in the pass game to make Ohio have to cover several pass targets. 

Myrtle Beach Bowl Best Bets – The Video Preview!

Georgia Southern Myrtle Beach Preview – Key Stats

Here are some other key stats: Georgia Southern allowed a too high 26 rushing TD’s.  The overall turnover ratio was -5.  The overall sack ratio was 23-29.  They do possess an excellent kick returner, and with time off between games, I need to remind people that the return game tends to play an important role in bowl game analysis.

Myrtle Beach Bowl Picks: Ohio University Strengths and Weaknesses

Ohio U notes: Ohio became much more of a defensive team in 2023.  Last year’s point ratio was 32-28.5.  This year’s ratio is 23-15.5.  Last year’s rush ratio was 4.7-4.25.  This year’s rush ratio is 3.75-3.35.  The pass D% this year is a modest 61.2%, and that’s the area Georgia Southern is best suited to try and exploit. 

Bad News for Ohio U – Who’s The QB?

Here’s the bad news for Ohio.  QB Rourke will not play in this game, and their top two RB’s are in the transfer portal.  As a reminder, some players in the portal do play in bowl games, so check the local beat writers for last minute information.  One of their top two WR’s is also in the portal. 

What does this all mean?  Parker Navarro is slated to start at QB.  He threw ten passes in 2023, all in mop-up duty.  I project him to have issues throwing the ball with consistency, but he could be the leading run threat in the entire game!  In fact, the leading rusher left on the roster had a season total of 22 yards. 

The good news is that most of the defensive players are playing, and the defense produced 31 sacks in addition to stopping teams from running the football.  Here are some other stats of note: Ohio had a plus 7:11 time of possession edge. 

That edge will likely disappear some with the new backfield.  The 3^rd down defense was stout.  The return game numbers are substandard.  Kicking fell off, as they made just 17 of 26 field goal attempts.  Ohio’s offensive line allowed just 15 sacks, but that too could change with the Navarro at the helm.

Myrtle Beach Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Georgia Southern needs to take care of the ball.  The defense needs to force Ohio’s new QB to pass the ball.  Even with Ohio having a precarious RB situation, the Eagles must prove they can defend the run.  Ohio needs to dig deep and find a RB in order to take the pressure off their raw QB. 

If Ohio can pressure Brin, it could lead to good results.  That pass rush will be critical.  Finally, Ohio has to be careful in the return game.  Georgia Southern has the edge in special team play.

Myrtle Beach Bowl Best Bets – The Free Picks & Predictions

If lead RB Bangura played, his stat projection was going to be 21-120.  Given Ohio’s fine defensive numbers, that would have been enough to project a win and cover for the Bobcats in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.  Without him, this comes down to QB play and special team play.  Will Brin remain turnover-prone vs. a better than average Ohio defense?  Will Navarro exploit Georgia Southern’s better, but still not ideal run defense with his legs?  Can Georgia Southern break off a long return this Myrtle Beach Bowl? 

The line opened Ohio minus about 2.5 but has completely flipped to the point that Georgia Southern is now the four-point favorite. 

The Pick:

The total for the Myrtle Beach Bowl has moved from the 54 range down to 48.  I personally played the under (53) early, based on Ohio’s defense and the expected loss of their QB.  I still think the under carries slight value, and I lean with Ohio at +4.  Much depends on QB Brin.  I think he makes a mistake or two that gives Ohio a win shot, but the Bobcats need to find a run game and not give up a big special team play. 

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