New Mexico Bowl Best Bets: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State Predictions – College Football 12/16

New Mexico Bowl Preview & Free Picks: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State Best Bets

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his tips on the New Mexico Bowl being played on December 16th, between Fresno State and New Mexico State. What are his takeaways and things to watch from a betting perspective? Read below now!

It was quite a season for Fresno State.  They started 2-0, but in both games, they had a win probability of well under 50% during the 4^th quarter.  They continued to win close games and stood at 8-1 before losing their last three games, including one to lowly New Mexico. 

Jerry Kill worked wonders with New Mexico State in 2022, and did even better this season.  They went 10-4, winning eight in a row before losing in the CUSA title game to undefeated Liberty.  This should be a fun one.

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New Mexico Bowl Picks and Best Bets: Fresno State Preview

Fresno likely was overvalued for much of 2023 but that doesn’t explain their sudden three-game losing streak.  I like QB Keene, and the two RB’s have a chance at putting up some solid numbers facing an Aggie defense that played a rather soft schedule. 

Fresno is capable of running for 5.0 per carry if they decide to run the ball more often than they have been.  Their top five pass-catchers had 35 or more receptions.  Three of the top four are seniors, so Fresno has plenty of passing game experience.  Advantage, Bulldogs.

Fresno State Defensive Numbers

Fresno’s defense regressed a bit in 2023, allowing 4.55 yards per carry, corrected for sacks using my rush stat formula (I use the formula for the top five conferences, plus the Mountain West).  New Mexico state has one of the best run offenses in the NCAA and that is their edge.  In fact, the Aggies ran 170 yards or more in every game this season.  Fresno is a tough team to pass on, but a closer inspection shows that they did not face a particularly tough slate of opposing QB’s. 

The Aggies could have modest success in this spot.  Despite the slant in terms of passing first over running, Fresno boasts a +10 turnover ratio, aided by 16 defensive interceptions.  The sack ratio was mediocre at 26-30.  Two more Fresno notes.  1^st, their Power Number dropped ten points during their last seven games, indicating some weakness.  2^nd, their conversion rate offensively on 3^rd down is solid, at over 46%.

New Mexico Bowl Betting Tips

New Mexico Bowl Picks: New Mexico State Strengths and Weaknesses

The Aggies turned the corner in 2022 with a 4.5-3.95 rush ratio, and then exceeded expectations again this year with a 5.8-4.4 ratio.  They spread the wealth around, and QB Pavia is also a rush threat.  Their main goal is to keep him healthy.  He left the title game vs. Liberty. 

I chart Pavia at 17+ completions (31 attempts) for 207 yards, and another 49 on the ground.  I project one interception.  That’s not so bad for a team with a run-first mentality.  New Mexico State’s defense was fully exposed by Liberty.  Liberty passed for 319 yards (20-25), and ran for an absurd 45-393 ledger.  Needless to say, Liberty never punted in the game. 

Both the run defense and pass defense regressed from 2022, at least partly due to this game.  If Fresno’s QB has success in the pass game it will open up the run game in this spot.  New Mexico State’s sack ratio is 31-20.  The kicking game was fine (18-23).

New Mexico Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

 Head Coach Jeff Tedford will not guide Fresno in this bowl game (medical reasons).  Their LB coach will be in charge. Does that affect game planning?  Other than that, Fresno must contain Pavia and force him into pass only situations. 

I’d also run more in this spot, as the Aggies are vulnerable to a team with run-pass balance.  New Mexico State needs an early defensive stop to regain its confidence.  Stopping QB Keene will not be easy.  The Aggies forced just eleven takeaways this season in a 14-game schedule. 

If Fresno stays clean in turnovers, then I don’t see how Fresno will be stopped from scoring 30+ points.  Running effectively and controlling clock would greatly enhance New Mexico State’s win probability in the New Mexico Bowl

New Mexico Bowl Best Bets – The Free Picks & Predictions

The game is at rival New Mexico State’s home campus, perhaps a minor advantage for the Aggies.  They will be highly motivated to beat a perceived “higher profile” team, while we don’t fully know Fresno’s motivation. 

New Mexico State has the ability to run to win, but my numbers do not support the Aggies being a four-point favorite in the New Mexico Bowl.

The Pick:

With a healthy Pavia, I could see this going over the total of 51, weather permitting. Take the over on the totals in the New Mexico Bowl.

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