Quick Lane Bowl Predictions : Bowling Green vs. Minnesota Free Picks, Best Bets 12/26
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Best Bets: Quick Lane Bowl Preview & Prediction
Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers fast picks on The Quick Lane Bowl being played on December 26th, between Bowling Green and Minnesota. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top predictions here.
It looks like Bowling Green (BG) is finally turning the corner with their program. Maybe their patience is paying off, as the Falcons won five of six down the stretch, losing only by a single point to Toledo. As for Minnesota, their program took a step or two down in 2023.
In fact, they were the last team “earning” a bowl bid, qualifying at 5-7. Normally a Big Ten vs. MAC matchup would see one-sided odds. We’ll see if conference affiliation matters after a study of the matchup analysis.
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Quick Lane Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Bowling Green Overview
BG went bowling last year with a 24-33 point ratio, a 3.1-4.2 rush ratio, a 65% pass defense, and a 37-36 sack ratio. There was improvement everywhere in 2023. The point ratio was 26-23.5. The rush ratio was 4.2-3.9. The pass defense allowed 60%. The sack ratio was 38-25. QB play was decent, with transfer Connor Bazelak hitting 61.2%, but with a modest 11-7 touchdown to interception ratio. I chart him at 19-30 in this spot. RB Stewart ran for 6.1 per carry, but did not play in the final three games.
There’s almost nothing behind him, and this alters what might happen in the game. As of 12/20, he was called a “gametime decision”.
Past Minnesota teams would have had a field day (300 rush yards) vs. past BG teams. See below for my projections, but this is an area the Falcons have cleaned up. The Gophers will have a raw QB for this game, and BG should contain him most of the time, although there are two legitimate pass catching targets to worry about. They will be down one starting CB. Kicking was 12-17. There are two areas the Falcons will need to shore up. 1st, the team is penalty prone. 2nd, the 3rd down conversion rate offensively is certainly below par.
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Quick Lane Bowl Picks: Minnesota Strengths and Weaknesses
Minnesota has lived with rush figures around 4.9-200 yards per game. They fell well below this mark, with their lowest totals in about a decade at 4.0-152. Freshman RB Darius Taylor is the one to watch, as he ran for 5.75 per carry, but missed the past five games. There’s some talent behind him, but not enough to make as big an impact as Taylor could if he plays.
Passing was difficult for this team in 2023. Head Coach Fleck wants better, so he’s been working the transfer portal. The 2023 starter is gone, leaving unknown Senior QB Cole Kramer in charge. Kramer has thrown 14 passes in his four years at Minnesota (0-1 this season). Way back in 2019 he showed some run skill. The WR’s and TE on the team have some ability, but it remains to be seen if they will have a QB who can get them the ball.
More Bad Defense!
After two years showing a 3.95 per carry run defense the Gophers regressed to 4.9 allowed. The final three games saw them allow 123-840, which is 6.8 yards-per-carry. BG, even with RB Stewart would be an easier foe, but this is still a problem area. I expected 61% allowed through the air, a jump up from the 57.4% allowed in 2023.
The Gophers were not that good, coming in at 63%. Not many players will miss this game due to the portal/opt-out method, but their defensive coordinator is now at Michigan State. The Gophers allowed a too high % of 3rd down opportunities to be converted, but did not hurt themselves with penalties. Drives bogged down in 2023, leading to many field goals, which were nicely converted (22 of 26). The sack ratio was a modest 23-21.
Quick Lane Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:
Who has the RB edge if Stewart and Taylor both sit out with injuries? What can be expected of Minnesota QB Kramer? Is this too much of a step up in class for BG, or is Minnesota just a below average team that will be disinterested in this game? Will the loss of their defensive coordinator affect game planning for the Gophers.
Quick Lane Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions
Welcome to 2023 and the ever-changing world of college football. The story is that Minnesota QB Kramer intends to transfer, but was paid $30K to remain and play in this bowl game.
The Pick: Quick Lane Bowl Prediction!
If RB Stewart plays, I’m on Bowling Green.
If not, the playing field is leveled, but I’d still lean with the Falcons. P.J. Fleck is an intense coach and he’ll do his best to get Minnesota fired up, but if Stewart plays, the on-field matchup analysis cannot be ignored.
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