UNC vs West Virginia Free Picks: Mayo Bowl Predictions, Best Bets 12/27

North Carolina Tarheels vs West Virginia Mountaineers Best Bets: Mayo Bowl Preview & Prediction

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky slathers on some expert picks on The Mayo Bowl being played on December 27th, between UNC and WVU. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting?

North Carolina once again started quickly, but once again, they faded down the stretch.  West Virginia’s Neal Brown was on the very warm seat entering the season, and players were leaving the program.  They exceeded expectations at 8-4, proving again that Brown can coach.  Now, if only the players cared about this game, we would have something special going on in Charlotte.

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Mayo Bowl Preview: The Portal Factor

The Portal Factor: This is one of a few upcoming games where I feel compelled to discuss my take on who will NOT be playing in this game. 

Let’s start with North Carolina.  They will be missing impact players such as QB Drake Maye, WR Tez Walker, Center Cory Gaynor, plus leading tackler and number two pass rusher Cedric Gray.  Other key players out (some due to injury) include their #2 WR, top TE, a starting CB, and two other defensive players who made decent contributions. 

Freshman Connor Harrell threw six passes in 2023.  Offensively, I think North Carolina will still find running holes with RB Hampton being one of the better players in all of the NCAA.  The pass game will suffer.  Defensively, North Carolina was hardly great to begin with, so the losses will hurt.  I see a bit less of an impact, but we’re talking around 15 players that may miss this bowl game.  

As for West Virginia, they will be without their fine center, and two decent DB’s.  They have ten players in the transfer portal (as of 12/21) but the overall impact will not be felt as much.  Depth at WR and at safety are the two areas most affected.

Mayo Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: UNC Overview

You’ll always get North Carolina’s best effort in a bowl game.  With the raw QB, I think RB Hampton will be relied upon in the run AND the pass game.  The Tar Heels rushed for 28 touchdowns.  The run defense was always going to be challenged in this spot no matter who stayed and played. 

On paper, West Virginia should run in the neighborhood of 230+ yards, and clearly over five yards-per-carry.  I also expect around 60% allowed through the air, which could be worse if team depth is compromised.  On the plus side, their PK was 18-19.  On the negative side, their kick return defense was suspect.  As an aside, teams with so many opt-outs can see regression in punt and kick protection, especially with all the time off.

Mayo Bowl Video Picks

Mayo Bowl Picks: WVU Strengths and Weaknesses

West Virginia was already a proven run team (4.85 in 2022), but they exceeded expectations this year with a 5.45-238 yards per game figure.  Lead back C.J. Donaldson was excellent early on but then was hurt and his production dropped.  In his place came 5’7” true freshman Jahiem White, who ran wild in November and finished averaging over eight yards per carry.  Not to be outdone, QB Greene averaged over six yards per carry and contributed 13 rushing touchdowns. 

With time to heal, it’s unclear if Donaldson will reclaim the starting job but it does seem likely that West Virginia will have plenty of success in the ground game. 

For the season Greene was only 53%, but with a stout 15-4 ratio.  The goal is 60% here, but also to run much more than pass.  My expectation was that this team would allow 4.6 yards-per-carry, and that was nearly the case (4.5). 

Put all the numbers together and despite West Virginia’s prolific rush offense, the data favors North Carolina.  I suspect that if both teams were at full strength, there would be no real rush pick edge. 

Kicking was solid, at 14-17.  West Virginia had just 26 defensive sacks, but allowed a mere nine of their own.  Despite a decent pass D%, they did allow 25 passing TD’s.  Like North Carolina, the kick return defense was suspect, although the punt return defense was perfect.  Using their rush attack, the Mountaineers had about a six and a half minute time of possession edge.

Mayo Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Can North Carolina pass the ball effectively without its star QB and a depleted pass-catching unit?  Will that help West Virginia prevent the big pass play?  Can West Virginia do a better job vs. the run, or will RB Hampton have a big game, helping to reduce potential time of possession issues?  

Mayo Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

The current line is now West Virginia by 6.5/7.  That’s probably fair, as there’s a potentially big drop-off between a QB who looks to be a top five NFL pick and a true freshman.  My lean is still to take the points, only because Mack Brown is a proven coach with points, and there’s a chance this team can go toe to toe in the run game even with Drake Maye out.  

Bowl season 2023 is different than any other, and edges are tougher to find. 

The Pick: Mayo Bowl Prediction!

RB Hampton OVER his combined pass and rush yards, and a token play on OVER the total points (54 so far).

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