Fenway Bowl Free Picks : Boston College vs SMU Best Bets, Predictions 12/28

Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs Best Bets: Fenway Bowl Predictions & Analysis

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers spicy picks on The Wasabi Fenway Bowl being played on December 28th, between Boston College and SMU. What are his takeaways and things to watch when considering betting? Find top free picks and best bets here.

Boston College started 3-3, with five of their six games being decided by three points or less. 

At 6-3, they lost their final three games by the combined score of 117-58.  SMU went 11-2, winning their final nine games.  Why is this game interesting?  SMU “bought” their way into the ACC for 2024 and beyond.  These schools will soon become conference rivals, like it or not.

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Wasabi Fenway Bowl Predictions and Best Bets: Boston College Overview

Boston College (BC) was night and day better running the ball in 2023.  One year after going 2.55-76 yards per game the Eagles ran 4.7-193.  The QB ran for 957 yards and eleven touchdowns, and their lead RB was up and down, but ran 4.6 per carry. 

Running won’t be easy vs. SMU, but I suspect they will have modest success, as long as they can avoid the pass rush.  The pass game was more cold than hot.  Castellanos hit just 56%, with a below par 15-13 ratio.  The WR/TE unit is adequate, but lacks a star. 

The biggest challenge for this game is avoiding sacks.  BC was only sacked on 19 occasions, but SMU had 47 defensive sacks. 

BC Can’t Stop Anyone!

Defensively, BC hoped to improve on their 4.55 per carry allowed last year but that didn’t happen.  They allowed a very poor 5.65-195.5 yards per game, stopping absolutely no one! 

One issue was the lack of pressure, with just twelve defensive sacks.  The pass defense held steady at just under 60%, but clearly this defense is not their strong suit.  Kicking was 10-12.  BC has few opt-outs, but has sustained some late season injuries.  They have one negative situation heading into this game.

Fenway Bowl Picks: SMU Best Bets

SMU’s point ratio was 40.5-15.5.  Preston Stone had a fine season, but got hurt in his final game.  As an aside, his injury, like with Florida State’s QB injury, may have kept this team from achieving the group of five bowl bid.  Stone’s best trait was limiting turnovers.  New QB Jennings was 19-33 in his start vs. Tulane, but threw two interceptions.  How will this game shake out? 

Given the competition, the 4.45 per carry run offense seems modest, but it did improve over last year’s numbers.  They run more by committee, and it “appears” that Jennings can run as well.  They will likely meet or exceed 200 rush yards in this game. 

Like BC, not many players are missing this game.  The run defense markedly improved, as they allowed just 3.15-111 yards per game.  BC has the type of QB to exceed these numbers, but the rush data strongly supports the Mustangs.  The pass defense remained stout at 57.5% and will present some challenges for the Eagles. 

One more offensive nugget: With just 15 sacks allowed, the new QB should have a clean pocket.  Kicking was 20-26.  

Fenway Bowl Best Bets – The Keys to The Game:

Can BC’s OL protect against SMU’s stout pass rush?  Will their QB be elusive enough to make a big play out of a scramble?  Will SMU’s Jennings be turnover-free?  Will BC be able to stop the run?  

Fenway Bowl – The Free Picks & Predictions

I give out advice at the start of every bowl season.  Taking money line dogs in early bowl games can be quite profitable.  By my count, we’ve had ten outright upsets in the first 17 games (I write this on 12/24).  Does that begin to shift now? 

SMU is the pronounced rush pick in a decent category, but is also a 10 to 10.5 point favorite as of this writing. 

The Pick: Fenway Bowl Prediction!

Showers, and rainy conditions are expected.  In clear weather, I’d take a SMALL position on SMU.  They win if they keep turnovers down.  Not all big favorites have proper motivation but I believe SMU wants to prove that they belong in the ACC.

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