2022 AAC Football Betting Preview | Marc Lawrence’s Playbook
AAC Football Predictions and Betting Odds
Football fans have been using Marc Lawrence’s Playbook to prep for upcoming football seasons for the last 30 years. Marc shares his thoughts on the 2022 AAC football season with key stats and betting angles to keep an eye on. WagerTalk offers the best NFL picks today every single day!
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Upcoming AAC Realignment
In one of the biggest conference “trades” in NCAA history, three current American Athletic Conference teams – Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF – will be leaving for the Big 12 before the 2023 academic year.
Six C-USA teams replacing them (FAU, UAB, Charlotte, Rice, North Texas, and UTSA) would do so at the same time, to prevent the AAC from dropping to just eight teams.
The buyout for the AAC schools is going to be $18 million each. That’s the standard $10 million buyout fee, plus another $8 million each to leave early. The buyout will be paid over 14 years.
Meanwhile, lawyers with billable hours are still working out further details on the new incoming schools.
With it, the American will compete as a 14-team league in football after the transition next summer.
2022 AAC Championship Odds
Odds below courtesy of DraftKings as of Wednesday, June 29:
| Team | AAC Championship Odds |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati | +180 |
| Houston | +240 |
| UCF | +360 |
| SMU | +1000 |
| Memphis | +1200 |
| East Carolina | +2000 |
| Tulsa | +3000 |
| Tulane | +4500 |
| South Florida | +5500 |
| Navy | +8000 |
| Temple | +25000 |
AAC Football Betting Notes
- Since the AAC formation in 2014, the conference has dominated as favorites when coming off consecutive losses, going 40-22-1 ATS overall, including 27-11-1 ATS against foes who surrender 30 or more points per game.
- Over the same span, AAC teams have struggled in bowl games, going 21-30 ATS overall, including 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS when facing greater than .666 opponents.
- Warning: AAC favorites coming off a SU favorite loss are 9-25 ATS against avenging foes since 2014, including 1-11 ATS in the last 12 occurrences.
AAC Football Team Previews
Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2022 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – on sale at Barnes & Noble and Books A Million bookstores nationwide or PlaybookSports.com.
A breakdown of the numbers includes the team’s national recruiting ranking, of 131 teams, by 247Sports as well as the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The number listed alongside the team name designates its preseason projected win total.
CINCINNATI – FEELING FICKLE – 9.5 W – 8 / 5
The Bearcats have averaged 11 wins per season over the last four years. Only Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia have more. With it – in college football’s biggest trade ever – next season Cincinnati will move on to the Big 12 as a member of the Power Five, along with Houston and UCF from the American Athletic, to be replaced by Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA from the Conference USA. The Bearcats ride a 16-0 conference record the past two seasons as proud as a peacock after being the first-ever of the Group of Five programs to crash the College Football Playoff last season. It should be quite a swan song this season for Luke Fickell’s crew.
PLAY AGAINST: at Tulsa (10/1)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Luke Fickell is 3-14 ATS as a favorite versus foes coming off a SUATS loss.
EAST CAROLINA – CARDIAC PIRACY – 6.5 W – *7 / 8
Unfortunately, East Carolina was one of 10 teams to have their bowl game canceled last season when the Pirates’ Military Bowl game with Boston College had the plug pulled due to COVID protocols. “It was painful to digest,” said head coach Mike Houston. “We were crushed.” Along the way, they managed to post their first winning season since 2014 thanks to four one-score wins by a total of 11 points – while also dropping three one-score defeats. Hence, it was a pacemaker-type season for Houston’s swashbucklers. With plenty of returning experience – only Tulane had more freshmen make starts than ECU in the conference – look for a real bowl game to surface this season.
PLAY ON: vs. UCF (10/22)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After going 1-26 ATS against conference foes with a winning record from 2010-19, the Pirates are 13-3 ATS vs. the same since.
HOUSTON – ACID REFLUX – 9 W – *7 / 6
The Cougars were another team that leaped from 3-wins to a dozen last season, and with it pangs of regression loom large in 2022. For openers, the Cougars have recorded double-digit win seasons eight times in their school history dating back to 1949. They averaged 6.5 wins per season the following campaigns while degenerating an average of 4.4 wins. That’s what you call regression. To top it off, they have their eye focused on joining the Big 12 next season. Dana Holgorsen realizes it, which is why he was super-active in the transfer portal in the offseason. However, the loss of RB Alton McCaskill (964 yards, 16 TDs in 2021) to an ACL is crushing.
PLAY AGAINST: at Navy (10/22)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams are 7-22 ATS with rest, including 1-12 ATS when coming off a loss.
MEMPHIS – ATTRITION MISSION – 7.5 W – *7 / 6
The Tigers’ 7-year bowl streak came to an end last season. The culprit was the Tigers’ shoddy 5-7 mark ‘In The Stats’ (ITS) as they now stand 10-13 ITS in all games under Ryan Silverfield, including 2-7 away. This pales in comparison to the 34-20 ITS mark in the Mike Norvell years from 2016-2019. Thus, you can see where erosion is occurring. Despite seniors making 145 of the 260 overall team starts last season, they will line up with a good amount of returning experience this season. With four of its first five games this campaign against foes with losing records in 2021, a fast start is imperative if Memphis is to revisit the alleys this season.
PLAY AGAINST: at Mississippi State (9/3) – *KEY
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 0-9 ATS away under head coach Ryan Silverfield.
NAVY – BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES – 4.5 W – *6 / 6
After struggling throughout most of the 2021 season, the Middies closed the campaign on a high note with a pair of wins, including a takedown of Army as a 7-point underdog. In the process, Navy maintained possession of the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy despite fielding one of its youngest teams in recent memory in 2021. Due to injuries, the Mids had nine different starting combinations along the offensive line with ten freshmen and 19 sophomores combined on the offensive and defensive depth charts. Through it all, they improved their stats clear across the board on both sides of the ball even though Navy’s twelve opponents finished the year with a combined 94-48 (.662) record, which was the third-toughest schedule in the country. Clear the deck. The swabbies are back!
PLAY ON: at Cincinnati (11/5)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Eleven of Navy’s twelve opponents in 2021 played in bowl games, which was the most in the country.
SMU – 50 LASHES – 7 W – *6 / 7
New head coach Rhett Lashlee led what should have been a mess of a Miami offense to a top-50 rank in points-per-drive last season while developing young star Tyler Van Dyke in the process. His reward was landing the top spot with an SMU squad that has gone 25-10 the past three seasons under Sonny Dykes, who now takes over the reins at TCU – an hour down I-30 in Dallas. Lashlee was a quarterback at Arkansas from 2002-05 where the Hogs won 23 games and played in two bowl games. He’s worked under Gus Malzahn for a good portion of his college coaching career and looks to be a good fit for the Ponies.
PLAY ON: at Tulsa (10/29)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mustangs are 10-2 ATS at home versus greater than .600 opponents the past five seasons.
TEMPLE – WAKE UP CALL – 2.5 W – *7 / 6
If a huge personnel turnover from last year’s three-win unit wasn’t bad enough, the Owls ranked only ahead of Tulsa in the AAC’s transfer portal this offseason per 24/7 Sports. New head coach Stan Drayton has won college national championships at Florida and Ohio State and coached at the NFL level. He was an associate head coach at Texas with Tom Herman and Steve Sarkisian for the Longhorns. For a team that fizzled out at 0-7 SUATS in its final seven games last season, a fast start is imperative. Facing five losing foes in its first five contests could be just the magic elixir that Drayton and the Owls need.
PLAY ON: vs. Rutgers (9/17)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls averaged 0.6 points in the first quarter last season, the worst of all FBS teams.
TULANE – RIDE THE WAVE – 6 W – *9 / 8
The Wave came up a ripple short of toppling a Top-10 ranked team for the first time since 1973 when they fell inches short in a 40-35 loss at Oklahoma the opening week of last year’s campaign. It put their power rating into immediate disarray for the next two months when they went 0-5 SUATS in FBS contests before sucking it up, and closing out on a 4-1 ATS run to conclude the season. The culprit was the Wave’s 0-5 SUATS mark in one-score contests in 2021. With a boatload of experience returning in 2022, expect Willie Fritz to make hay in a “mission season” this campaign.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Memphis (10/22)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Green Wave was one of only 10 teams last season that saw underclassmen tally 60% of their overall team starts.
TULSA – BLOWIN’ IN THE WIND – 6 W – *6 / 6
Despite earning bowl berths each of the last two years, Phil Montgomery knows they cannot risk another 0-3 start like last year, not with Ole Miss and Cincinnati lurking on deck. Veteran QB Davis Brin and his top four wide receivers are back, but not much else. Seniors made a whopping 198 of the 287 team starts in 2021. With only one commit coming in via the Transfer Portal, another slow start looks to be in the offing. And speaking of slow starts, the Hurricane have performed more like a calm breeze early on in games the past two seasons, averaging a mere 2.9 PPG in the 1Q as opposed to 7.8 PPG in the second stanza.
PLAY AGAINST: at Memphis (11/10)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Golden Hurricane are 31-9-1 ATS in games in which they score 30 or more points, including 16-1 ATS as a dog.
UCF – WORN TREAD – 9 W – *9 / 8
This wasn’t how it was supposed to play out. Not with offensive guru Gus Malzahn coming over from Auburn, and then watching the Knights blow out four tires behind an offense that fell off the planet when it regressed 163 yards and 10 points per game. Were it not for a staunch defensive effort that witnessed a 124 YPG improvement, UCF would have had a lot of ‘splaining to do. Winning six of their final seven games, while holding foes to 17 or fewer points in each of the victories, quieted the faithful. Malzahn immediately hit the Transfer Portal while landing the top transfer class in the AAC. He’ll need all the help he can get.
PLAY ON: vs. Louisville (9/9)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Gus Malzahn is 16-0 SU and 14-2 ATS coming off consecutive SUATS wins when facing sub .888 foes.
USF – BEAM ME UP, SCOTTY – 2.5 W – *10 / 9
It’s been a slow start thus far for Jeff Scott during his two-year term at South Florida. With only three wins to show for his efforts, Scott knows this is likely his last go-round with the Bulls, and with it he’ll rely heavily on a unit that is well stocked with returning starters (19) and “super seniors” (12). USF is loaded with returning production, including five starters on the OL, everyne 300 pounds, who’ve made 136 starts. And add to the mix former Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon (10-2 as a starter) joining the team as one of a conference-high 15 commits from the Transfer Portal. Beware of the Bulls.
PLAY ON: vs. UCF (11/26)
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulls are 0-8 SU but 8-0 ATS under Scott when coming off a SUATS loss.
Meet the Experts: Marc Lawrence
Lawrence Prezman sits down with Marc Lawrence to discuss his career in the sports betting business. Marc has been a professional handicapper for over 40 years, and is celebrating the 30th anniversary of his Playbook preseason guide in 2022.
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Meet the Author
A contrarian by nature, Marc Lawrence loves ferreting out lives dogs that stand a good chance of winning the game. His “Woody Hayes” approach to handicapping is simple: Hayes’ contention was that when you pass the ball three things can happen, and two of them are bad. In the same vein, when you bet on a favorite three things can happen and two of them are bad. Hence, when you bet on a live dog three things can happen and two of them are good. Marc is a 45-year veteran of the sports betting industry, having won more documented top-10 handicapping achievement awards than anyone in the nation – including winning the Stardust Football Invitational in 2005.
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