2022 Big 12 Football Betting Preview | Marc Lawrence’s Playbook

Big 12 Football Predictions and Betting Odds

Football fans have been using Marc Lawrence’s Playbook to prep for upcoming football seasons for the last 30 years. Marc shares his thoughts on the 2022 Big 12 football season with key stats and betting angles to keep an eye on.

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Three’s Company – Big 12 Departing Coaches

When Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley jumped ship and headed west to USC, he was one of three departing head coaches in the Big 12 conference this season.

In addition, former TCU head coach Gary Patterson and Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells were pink-slipped at the conclusion of last season.

Patterson is now the special assistant to head coach Steve Sarkisian at Texas, while Wells is a new offensive assistant at Oklahoma under new head coach Brent Venables.

2022 Big 12 Championship Odds

Odds below courtesy of DraftKings as of Tuesday, July 12:

Team	Big 12 Championship Odds
Oklahoma	+170
Texas	+290
Oklahoma State	+550
Baylor	+600
TCU	+1600
Kansas State	+1600
Iowa State	+1600
West Virginia	+3500
Texas Tech	+4500
Kansas	+30000

Preseason All-Big 12 Team

Stormin’ In Norman reports only two Sooners on the Preseason All-Big 12 Team, including QB Dillon Gabriel and P Michael Turk.

The number of Oklahoma players named to the All-Big 12 Preseason Team is down considerably from what it has been in recent years. A year ago, nine Oklahoma players (five on offense, four on defense) were named to the Preseason All-Big 12 Team. Five Sooners were named to the 2020 All-Big 12 Preseason Team and six from OU in 2019.

Kansas State led all Big 12 teams with six players on the 2022 Preseason All-Big 12 Team, followed by Baylor with five, West Virginia with four, and Oklahoma State, Texas, and Iowa State with three each.

Big 12 Betting Notes

• Only two teams in the Power 5 return less production than the defending champion Baylor Bears this season. It just so happens both of those teams also play in the Big 12 – Iowa State and West Virginia.

• In the past 14 seasons, Oklahoma State has 3.5 times more 10-win seasons (7) than they do seasons with fewer than eight wins (2). It seems no matter what the team loses, the Pokes are in the mix.

Big 12 Football Team Previews

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2022 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – on sale at Barnes & Noble and Books A Million bookstores nationwide or PlaybookSports.com. The amount of returning starters on offense and defense are listed with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The number listed alongside the team name designates its preseason projected win total.

BAYLOR– READY. AIM. FIRE – 7.5 W –  6 / 6

With only two wins in 2020, the Bears were picked by the experts to finish in ninth place in the Big 12 last season. Little did they realize that second-year head coach Dave Aranda had other plans.

Behind a retooled coaching staff and a 7-1 start – the best in school history since 1942 – the Bears clawed their way to a Big 12 championship when they upset Oklahoma State in the title game. With it, Baylor won a school-record twelve games, and its third Big 12 championship in nine years.

“We’re still working like we’ve got something to prove,” Aranda said, “because we’re going to have a target on our backs this year.” Ya think? It’d be unfair and unrealistic to expect a repeat of the 2021 Baylor defense. However, the Bears return all three defensive linemen from a year ago.

PLAY AGAINST: at Iowa State (9/24)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bears have produced six winning records in the last 26 years in conference games.

IOWA STATE – PURDY DISAPPOINTING – 6.5 W – 5 / 3

Last season was difficult for the Cyclones on quite a few fronts. For openers, expectations were off the charts with twenty returning starters.

Along with Oklahoma, Iowa State was one of two schools in the Big 12 to appear in the College Football Playoff poll each of the last previous four seasons. Making matters worse for head coach Matt Campbell is the fact that the Cyclones were hit hard with graduation losses, including 4-year starting QB Brock Purdy.

His replacement will be 6-3, 235-pound sophomore Hunter Dekkers. He was one of the most prolific prep passers in Iowa history and completed 20-of-31 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns in four games in 2021.

PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma (10/29)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Matt Campbell is 24-8 ATS as a conference dog, including 16-3 ATS versus foes coming off a win.

KANSAS – LEAPING LEIPOLDS – 2.5 W – *9 / 8

When Lance Leipold arrived late in Lawrence at the end of spring camp last season the team was a mess. It wasn’t until August when his hastily assembled coaching staff settled on a roster, and as a result, they failed to beat an FBS team until mid-November.

But when they did it was a lollapalooza, downing Texas, 57-56, as 31-point underdogs in Austin – arguably the biggest upset of the season. Then, they damn near did the same in their final two games of the season in near-upsets of TCU, and West Virginia.

Safe to say, with some real depth on this team, confidence is at an all-time high in Lawrence these days, especially with their most exciting QB in years in Jalon Daniels.

PLAY ON: at Oklahoma (10/15)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Lance Leipold is 23-9 ATS at home in his career as an FBS head coach, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 7 points.

KANSAS STATE – KLIEMAN NEW HEIGHTS – 6.5 W – *7 / 7

Kansas State has seven “super seniors” returning in 2022, and for the second year in a row, the Wildcats will welcome in five Division-1 transfers, including QB Adrian Martinez, who started 38 games at Nebraska, setting 17 school records.

Meanwhile, Chris Klieman’s 76.0% career winning percentage ranks third among current FBS coaches, trailing only Dabo Swinney (80.6) and Nick Saban (80.0).

The K-State defense switched from a four-man front to a three-man front in 2021, and the change paid off in spades, as the Wildcats trimmed 11.2 points and 100.0 yards per game allowed off their averages from the year prior.

PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma (9/24)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Over the last 22 years, KSU leads the nation in Kick/Punt Returns for a TD with 58 – 21 more than runner-up Alabama.

OKLAHOMA – YIN AND YANG – 9.5 W – 5 / 5

With Lincoln Riley packing his bags and headed west, Brent Venables is the first outside hire for the Sooners since 1999.

Then again, not really, as he coached at Oklahoma from 1999-2011 before being offered the Brinks truck to coach up the defense at Clemson. Nonetheless, Venables is the polar opposite of Riley, and he’ll miss a Sooner attack that led the nation in Red Zone Offense last season.

He must also replace portal transfer QBs Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler. Those are some mighty big shoes to fill, and hopefully UCF transfer QB Dillon Gabriel’s “chucks” can do just that. And if you think the fan base is down then think again – 75,360 showed up for the Sooners’ spring game!

PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma State (11/19)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Sooners are 35-2 SU in games when coming off a loss since 2005.

OKLAHOMA STATE – TURNING UP THE HEAT – 8.5 W – *7 / 4

The 2021 season was a feather in the cap for head coach Mike Gundy. The 12-win campaign equaled the most in school history, as they have averaged more than 9 wins a season since 2015.

Joining the fray in 2022 is new defensive coordinator, and former Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason, who earned his stripes coordinating defenses at Auburn and Stanford. The Cowboys will need to replace six of their top eight tacklers, including star LB Malcolm Rodriguez.

Mason will have his hands full, as both returning production and the Transfer Portal came up woefully short. The heat is suddenly back on Gundy.

PLAY ON: at Baylor (10/1)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Mike Gundy is 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS against sub .200 opponents.

TCU – OPERATION MUTUAL CONSENT – 6.5 W – *10 / 7

For the first time in more than 20 years, the Horned Frogs will start the season with a new head coach. Former coach Gary Patterson’s 21st stint, and 4th losing season in his tenure with TCU, ended in a quasi-mutual divorce.

Patterson has won 22 national Coach of the year honors. Filling his shoes is veteran Sonny Dykes, a fan favorite, and popular among players. Dykes brought two four-star recruits from SMU with him, and a starting offensive lineman.

An offensive guru, Dykes will need to first patch a defense that was simply miserable last season, ranking 122nd against the run while allowing 222 RYPG. Five defensive transfers and new DC Joe Gillespie from Tulsa should help.

PASS

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: TCU is 1-15 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points when coming off a SU underdog win.

TEXAS – 12 STEP PROGRAM – 8 W – 7 / 7

Every time someone hints at Texas being “back”, the Longhorns seem to take 12 steps back. Marred by a terrible defense, the Longhorns were a dysfunctional mess going 5-7 in Steve Sarkisian’s first year in Austin.

Making matters worse, Texas is losing some key players, including QB Casey Thompson and TE Cade Brewer. But Heisman contender Bijan Robinson at running back, and breakout star Xavier Worthy at receiver return.

Texas signed the No. 5 recruiting class in the country, including former five-star quarterback Quinn Ewers in the transfer portal from Ohio State. Suddenly, this roster has the makeup of a Big 12 champion. The rest is up to ex-12 stepper Sarkisian.

PLAY ON: at Kansas (11/19)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Texas lost six games in a row last season for the first time since 1956.

TEXAS TECH – KNOCK, KNOCK – 5.5 W – *6 / 6

Joey McGuire is the least-known name on the long list of head coaching hires for 2022, but he is a damn good one. He cut his teeth in the state of Texas, becoming an extremely well-regarded coach among Texas high school players.

McGuire is a terrific recruiter, and that’s important in Lubbock. The former Baylor assistant also made terrific hires in assistant coaches, grabbing WKU’s Zach Kittley as offensive coordinator and Oregon’s Tim DeRuyter as defensive coordinator.

The linebackers are crazy-good, the offensive line is stout, and if a healthy Tyler Shough really is the next-level QB he’s expected to be, this team could be knocking on a huge upturn in 2022.

PLAY ON: vs. TCU (11/5)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Red Raiders are 36-71 in conference games since Mike Leach’s departure in 2010. They were 47-33 in Big 12 games with him.

WEST VIRGINIA – PUT UP OR SHUT UP – 5.5 W – 7 / 5

After three consecutive double-digit win seasons with Troy, head coach Neal Brown has now posted just one winning campaign and has an overall record of 17-18 in his three years with the Mountaineers.

Gone are the halcyon days of West Virginia’s explosive air raid offense, as they’ve averaged an underwhelming 24.1 points per game under Brown.

The good news is that quarterback J.T. Daniels has transferred to Morgantown with two years of eligibility remaining, selecting WVU over Oregon State and Missouri. This is the third stop in Daniels’ career after stints at USC and Georgia. New OC and QB coach Graham Harrell is a huge boost as well.

PLAY ON: as a dog at Texas Tech (10/22)

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Neal Brown is 10-2 ATS in games when coming off a loss of 14 or more points.

Meet the Experts: Marc Lawrence

Lawrence Prezman sits down with Marc Lawrence to discuss his career in the sports betting business. Marc has been a professional handicapper for over 40 years, and is celebrating the 30th anniversary of his Playbook preseason guide in 2022.

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Meet the Author

A contrarian by nature, Marc Lawrence loves ferreting out lives dogs that stand a good chance of winning the game. His “Woody Hayes” approach to handicapping is simple: Hayes’ contention was that when you pass the ball three things can happen, and two of them are bad. In the same vein, when you bet on a favorite three things can happen and two of them are bad. Hence, when you bet on a live dog three things can happen and two of them are good. Marc is a 45-year veteran of the sports betting industry, having won more documented top-10 handicapping achievement awards than anyone in the nation – including winning the Stardust Football Invitational in 2005.

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