2024-25 College Football Playoff Preview | NCAAF Week 7

The first edition of the 2024-25 College Football Playoff rankings is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, November 5. Which teams are in good shape for the first-ever 12-team playoff, and who has a lot of work to do? Betting analyst Ron Marmalefsky shares his thoughts on each Power 4 conference, plus some darkhorses that can crash the party.

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ACC Outlook

Projected number of teams to make the playoffs: Two
Projected teams to make the ACC title game: Clemson and Miami Florida

Miami is now -300 to make the playoffs thanks to close, and yes, lucky wins over Virginia Tech and California. They’ll get the rest edge before heading to Louisville in a potentially tossup game, with the only other likely tough games being at Georgia Tech and at Syracuse.

Clemson is only -110 to make the playoffs, but it can be argued that the Tigers are the top team in the ACC. They likely need only to go 2-1 in November games hosting Louisville, at Virginia Tech, and at Pittsburgh to make the title game.

Other contenders: Pittsburgh, SMU

Recommendations: I like Clemson at -110, and as a longshot, I’d consider SMU, but they will need to win the ACC (not just get into the title game) by virtue of their loss earlier this year to BYU.

Big XII Outlook

Projected number of teams to make the playoffs: One or two
Projected teams to make the Big 12 title game: Too close to call

Seven teams have either zero or one loss, but as conference play heats up, I expect this very evenly matched league to start beating each other up. As a result, I think only the winner of the Big 12 title game gets in, unless strange things happen in the Big Ten and SEC.

Let’s quickly look at the possible contenders.
BYU: 3-0 in the Big 12 and still underrated. Only the emotional rivalry game at Utah could see them as a true underdog.
Iowa St: Is this the year they meet or exceed lofty expectations? Their remaining schedule is likely the toughest of these five.
Kansas St: Shocked at BYU, they can’t afford another slipup if it’s to a contending team. The closing game at Iowa St may decide things.
Utah: The Committee might cut them some slack for losing at Arizona without their starting QB, but first they need to reach the title game. The November schedule is tricky.
West Virginia: With two losses outside of the conference, they must get in and win the Big 12 title game. Their rest of October schedule is challenging.

Texas Tech is 3-0 in the Big 12 but I have them as a longshot to make the title game.
Colorado is 2-0 in the Big 12 and if their defense holds up, could be elevated to my contender list.
Both Arizona and ASU could surprise, but each has a loss and might need to run the table.

Value Play: I’m not sure there’s any value right now with so many contenders, but FanDuel lists Kansas State at +500 to win the Big 12, which might be the way I’d lean.

SEC Outlook

Projected number of teams to make the playoffs: Four or Five
Projected teams to make the SEC title game: Georgia and Texas

Three teams, Alabama, Tennessee, and Missouri lost last week, making the SEC race tighter, and more importantly, creating the perception that the SEC may not really deserve as many as five bids, which was going to be almost a given until last weekend.

Texas hosts Georgia 0n October 19th. Win that, and they will have a 98% chance at making the SEC title game. Bitter “old” rivals Arkansas (rested) and Texas A&M won’t be easy games, but a win vs. Georgia will still get them to the SEC title game.

Georgia will host Tennessee, but has to go to Texas and Mississippi. Unless the tiebreaker is solely with Alabama, I think Georgia can still get in with two losses. Even if they do NOT make the SEC title game, 10-2 gets them into the 12-team playoff.

Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt is not good on the resume. 10-2 still gets them into the 12-team playoff in my opinion. 9-3 might have done the same, but not with one of the losses being vs. Vanderbilt.

I personally feel Mississippi is a top 5-6 NCAA team. That home loss to Kentucky hurts, considering the game at LSU is in a very unfavorable situation, and hosting Georgia won’t be easy, not to mention that they can’t afford to look past Arkansas the week before (road game).

LSU’s path is difficult, but there’s a way for them to make the SEC title game. If they do so with just one loss, then they could sneak into the playoffs.

Missouri’s path likely closed with the loss to Texas A&M. The schedule strength is just not there. They need to run the table.

Tennessee’s loss to Arkansas hurt their chances. They’ll need to split games vs. Alabama and at Georgia, and win all the other games to make a case.

It’s possible that A&M can get into the SEC title game, as they avoid Georgia and Alabama. The finale at Texas could be quite meaningful. They can’t afford three losses however, and would likely lose tiebreaker status due to their loss to Notre Dame.

Recommendations: Using Bet US, FanDuel, and Draft Kings (check other sites for best odds), here’s three considerations.

Alabama to miss the playoffs at +450
Missouri to miss the playoffs at -400
Texas A&M to miss the playoffs at -150

Besides Georgia and Texas, I think Mississippi has the schedule strength to get into the playoffs, and LSU would be a factor if they upset Mississippi this Saturday. While Alabama is the likely 4th or 5th choice, +450 seems like value, especially if Tennessee pulls off an upset. The path for five SEC teams could still be there, but it depends on Notre Dame, plus Big Ten results.

Big Ten Outlook

Projected number of teams to make the playoffs: Four
Projected teams to make the Big 10 title game: Ohio State and either Oregon or Penn State

Assuming Ohio State beats Michigan (home game), a split of games at Oregon and Penn State easily gets them into the Big 10 title game. They could lose both and still get into the NCAA playoffs.

The same is likely true of Oregon, but Penn State, who they do NOT play, might complicate matters.

This week Penn State goes to USC. Later, they travel to Wisconsin. Like with Ohio State and Oregon, they can finish 10-2 and secure a berth into the 12-team playoff. Two losses however may cost them a spot in the Big 10 title game.

I think a 4th team from the Big Ten will make the NCAA playoffs, with that spot completely up for grabs. I wouldn’t rule out Iowa, who has a favorable road schedule. They’ll need to run the table however. The same is now true for USC, who if they can get on a roll, face Notre Dame in their finale. Indiana is 6-0, but will face a massive upgrade in opponents moving forward. Still, I love the job their coaching staff has done.

Recommendations: None at this time, but if you can find odds on making (not winning) the Big 10 title, consider Penn State if the price is right.

Notre Dame / Group of Five

It’s quite automatic that Boise will get in if they run the table. Their toughest remaining game is at UNLV, but Boise will get a bye prior to that game. Hosting Oregon State is not nearly as daunting as in the past (34-17 loss in 2022). The Beavers are a completely different team. That’s their next toughest game remaining on the schedule.

Other contenders:
UNLV’s only blemish is an overtime loss vs. Syracuse. If they beat Boise (likely twice, once in the Mountain West title game), they would be a very likely participant.

Liberty’s strength of schedule is about dead last in the NCAA. They need to go undefeated, and hope other teams suffer losses.

Army and Navy are great stories, but I’m not sure they can sustain their great level of play. The next in line (after Boise, UNLV, or an undefeated Liberty team) would be a 12-1 conference winner (Sun Belt, MAC, AAC).

Like Alabama, Notre Dame took a damaging home loss, this one to Northern Illinois. Luckily for them, the rest of the schedule is quite manageable. 11-1 gets them in. They may be double-digit favorites the rest of the way until they play at USC in the season finale.

Recommendations: I’d be willing to consider a YES on Notre Dame making the playoffs (-120 at FanDuel). It’s possible that they run the table, creating either a hedge or middle opportunity as a road favorite at USC.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with Las Vegas Cris, Ted Sobel and Jeff Dawson.

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