Alabama vs Ole Miss Predictions and Betting Odds (10/2)

Alabama vs Ole Miss Betting Preview

Lane Kiffin and Nick Saban have had this one circled for a while. Alabama vs Ole Miss takes center stage on Saturday afternoon from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. At the time of posting, the Crimson Tide are a 15-point home favorite over the Rebels, with the total sitting at 79.5 points. WagerTalk Director of Content James Bunting offers his Alabama vs Ole Miss SEC Football betting preview.

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Crimson Tide vs Rebels Prediction

Before we dive into Saturday’s Alabama vs Ole Miss showdown, let’s take a real quick look at the rest of the College Football Week 5 card. There are a lot of “trendy underdogs” on the NCAAF betting board this week. Normally, the betting public is drawn toward betting on favorites. Betting is more fun when you have the better team, right? Not this week.

As of Friday evening, a quick look on the WagerTalk Live Odds screen shows significantly more money has been bet on Boston College (+14.5) over Clemson; Rutgers (+14.5) over Ohio State; Arkansas (+17) over Georgia; and Ole Miss (+15) over Alabama. It’s rare that to have that kind of money coming against, what was once thought to be, the top four teams in the country. This feels like one of those weekends where the betting public might be trying to get a little too cute. Don’t be shocked if a couple of those under-appreciated favorites roll. Will Alabama be one of them?

It’s painful to type these letters considering last year’s game featured 111 points and nearly 1,400 yards of offense, but I’m looking toward the under. Since losing to Hugh Freeze in 2015, Alabama has scored 48, 66, 62, 59, and 63 against Ole Miss. Sounds like a great game to bet the under in, right?!? It’s not going to feel good when you click “submit,” but I do think this Alabama defense is capable of slowing things down.

Let’s start with the Ole Miss offense. Corral is not being asked to take as many deep shots down the field, and instead, they are running a more conservative offense (they’re just running it really, really well). Corral’s average depth of target was 10.9 yards down the field last year. This year it’s 8.6 yards per attempt. His average depth of target in last year’s game against Alabama was 10.3 yards. So Kiffin and Corral are dialing some things back in order to play smarter and limit mistakes. This is Ole Miss’ first true road game this season, so there’s still some question marks around their ability to run their offense in front of 101,000 opposing fans.

On the Alabama side, the Crimson Tide should have no interest in getting into a shootout like last year. Alabama currently ranks No. 100 in plays per minute. Bill O’Brien and Co. are not in any kind of rush on offense. I played Alabama -7 in the second half last week against Florida, and I was sitting there in my recliner thinking, “C’mon guys, can we speed this up a little bit? I need some points.”

So the first part of the equation is pace of play, and the second part of the equation is explosive plays. Like Corral, Alabama quarterback Bryce Young hasn’t been asked to push down the field at a high rate. Throws to John Metchie III, Slade Bolden and JoJo Earle have an average depth of target at 6.5 yards this season. Young has completed 33 passes behind the line of scrimmage. Now, both teams have athletes on offense that are WELL capable of turning those two-yard screen passes into 45-yard touchdowns, but the point remains: Neither team is really pushing the ball aggressively down the field. I’ll put myself of looking foolish in a game that could hit the century mark once again, but I’m looking at under 79.5 points in Saturday’s Alabama vs Ole Miss clash in the SEC.

Nick Saban doubles down on wanting Bryant-Denny Stadium packed out for Ole Miss game.https://t.co/5mEzRbodPe

— Touchdown Alabama (@TDAlabamaMag) October 1, 2021

Alabama vs Ole Miss Analysis from The GoldSheet

Still apparently steamed at losing a couple of times to the Hugh Freeze Ole Miss in the middle of the past decade (or perhaps losing to Freeze on the golf course), Nick Saban has taken out his frustrations on Ole Miss since, scoring at a better than a point-per-minute clip in the past four meetings. We’re sure Saban has no less disdain for Lane Kiffin, who was unceremoniously moved out as Tide offensive coordinator on the eve of the national title loss to Clemson five years ago (Kiffin had just taken the FAU job). Last year in Oxford, the Rebels were almost able to trade points in a game that more resembled a summer passing league scrimmage, with 111 points and nearly 1,400 yards of offense. Ole Miss played a few of those types of games last season, but if there’s a difference in 2021, it’s that Kiffin has a bit more of a defense nowadays, thanks perhaps to new defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. This new-look unit is allowing under 21 points per game and a mere 31-percent conversions on third downs, the latter ranking among the top-30 nationally. That’s not exactly Johnny Vaught-in-his-heyday type stuff, but a suggestion that Kiffin doesn’t need to turn every game into a track meet. Though, if he does, Matt Corral’s arm and legs (385 yards per game of total offense ranks 3rd in the nation) give Ole Miss a puncher’s chance and highlights the other supporting storyline regarding a possible early-season Heisman showdown vs. Alabama’s Bryce Young. Our recommendation: Play Ole Miss +14.5.

College Football Daily

Will we be hearing “Roll Tide” or “Hotty Toddy” on Saturday evening in Tuscaloosa? WagerTalk college football handicappers Drew Martin, Kevin Dolan and Bryan Leonard offer their Alabama vs Ole Miss betting preview.

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