Alamo Bowl Picks and Predictions | Oklahoma vs Oregon
Alamo Bowl Betting Preview
WagerTalk college football handicapper Las Vegas Cris, with the assistance of Ron W, offers his Oklahoma vs Oregon Alamo Bowl betting preview for Wednesday, December 29. At the time of posting, the Sooners from the Big XII have climbed to a 6.5-point favorite over the Ducks from the Pac-12, with the total at 60.5 points.
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| Alamo Bowl | Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 vs Oregon Ducks |
| Total: | 60.5 Points |
| Game Time: | 9:15 pm ET / 6:15pm PT on Wednesday, December 29 |
| Stadium: | Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas |
| TV: | ESPN |
Alamo Bowl Analysis
Oklahoma finished 10-2, losing road games at Baylor and Oklahoma State. They had many a close call, and no statement win. Oregon went 10-3. They took care of Ohio St early before losing to Stanford and to Utah twice. The Stanford game was a fluke, with a very strange last two minutes and overtime. The losses to Utah were incredibly one-sided, by the combined score of 76-17. Lincoln Riley is now at USC and Mario Cristobal is in Miami. I guess these programs aren’t big enough?
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma’s 5.45-4.1 rush differential came close to my projections. Lead RB Brooks is a force and should get his yards. QB Williams took over for Rattler midway during the season and put up more than decent stats. He has run ability as well, although his totals in the final three games were below par, perhaps due to the high quality of teams they faced. No WR took off in the stat sheet this season. While a few of the WR’s won’t be playing in this game, there’s still targets to choose from.
Charting Oklahoma’s defense is tricky. The run D exceeded expectations but four players in the front seven will miss this game. The Sooners lose their top three tackles-for-loss guys and their leading tackler. 20.5 of their 30 defensive sacks are from players who will miss this game. The secondary is still intact, but not only will they miss the pressure put on by their front line, the team already was below par, allowing 65.7% through the air.
They face a capable QB in Oregon’s Brown, but not a true pass 1st threat. Still, I expect issues. Oklahoma’s kicker was 19-25. The sack ratio with at full strength was 30-33.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon didn’t quite score as many points as did Oklahoma, but the point defenses were exact. I projected (in August) a 5.5-4.0 rush ratio. The final tally was 5.4-3.85. RB Dye was fantastic, even going a combined 21-110 in the blowout losses to Utah. He’ll carry twenty times here if the score is close. QB Brown hit 63.7% with a modest 15-6 ratio. He ran for 637 yards. If the pass rush of Oklahoma is indeed weakened, 19-29 is a realistic goal, as would be 40+ rushing yards.
Like Oklahoma, Oregon will be without some WR’s. In Oregon’s case, the losses are significant, and depth is an issue. As expected, Oregon’s top DL (a top three NFL draft choice) will not play in this game. In addition, a top CB has opted-out. Oregon allowed about 60% on the season. As an aside, their offensive coordinator will remain here just for the bowl game. I don’t have the updated information about the defensive coordinator. For a change, kicking was good at 22-25. The sack ratio is 23-21.
Keys of the Alamo Bowl
The game is being played on a fast track in San Antonio, so the depleted defenses will need to adjust, even with WR’s on both sides opting out. Oklahoma must contain Dye and produce one or two off-platform plays in the pass game with their emerging QB. Oregon has to contain the run game (Brooks and QB Williams), and make do in the secondary without James. As an added perk to this game, retired former Head Coach Bob Stoops will lead Oklahoma in this game. Will he ground and pound with Brooks, or have massive fun and air out the football. Read the press clippings closely!
Alamo Bowl Prediction
Short of doing further research on Bob Stoops and all the replacements, my 1st look is to the dog. I don’t see a standout team or a standout situation. Both had disappointing last game results. Both lost coaches. Both lost WR’s. Both lost impactful defensive players. Finally, both teams still have their coveted RB’s in play. In a 50-50 game, let’s go Ducks for now.
LATE UPDATE: It’s been reported that Oregon will be without over 30 players for this game. This will need further vetting out, but the list seems to include a few OL, along with a large number of defensive players. The odds are now Oklahoma -7 in most shops, and could rise again once the betting public gets full wind of the story. I’m still interested in Oregon, but I’d advise everyone to take a closer look at how many starters are impacted. The total for the game has stayed about the same. The lean might be to go over the total depending on how many defensive players are impacted.
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Alamo Bowl Preview from GoldSheet
OU hasn’t had the problems with players, jilted by the departure of a head coach, flooding to the transfer portal (such as at Virginia Tech). In a delicate dance, the Sooners appeared to have retained the services of virtually all their key players, at least for the moment.
Oregon turned out to be a pretender, after opening the door to a bid in the National Championship Playoff with a win at Ohio State early on, they lost 3 weeks later at Stanford. The resilient Ducks then crawled back to a point that they still had a shot at the playoff heading into the Nov. 20 game at then No. 23 Utah. Unfortunately, the Webfoots were routed in that game and then again against the same Utes in the Pac-12 Championship in Las Vegas.
Oregon transfer QB Anthony Brown (from Boston College) was a bit up and down, but his numbers speak for themselves, as he completed 64% of his throws for 2692 YP with a 16-6 TD-int. rate, while being the 2nd leading rusher on the team with 637 YR and 9 TDs on the ground. Travis Dye was a pleasant surprise when he came in for an injured CJ Verdell and gained 1118 YR (5.8 ypc) and scored 15 TDs.
The Duck D was only marginally better than that of Oklahoma, with both giving up around 25 ppg, but Oregon will be without one key figure in that unit, and that is DE Kayvon Thibodeaux. Thibodeaux is projected to go in the top 5 in the NFL draft and has decided to guard his future and not risk playing against the Sooners. That’s a big loss, especially facing a prolific passing game with a very mobile QB like Williams.
Alamo Bowl Stats
College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Alamo Bowl before diving into this FREE download.
College Football Daily
Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Tony Mejia and Bryan Leonard for College Football Daily as we preview this week’s bowl slate. In this episode, we’ll break down Purdue vs Tennessee (Music City Bowl); Pittsburgh vs Michigan State (Peach Bowl); Arizona St vs Wisconsin (Las Vegas Bowl); Rutgers vs Wake Forest (Gator Bowl).
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Alamo Bowl showdown between Oklahoma and Oregon, from your desktop or phone.
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