Baylor vs Oklahoma State Picks and Odds

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Kevin Dolan offers his Baylor vs Oklahoma State betting preview for the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, December 4 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. At the time of posting, the Cowboys have opened as a 5.5-point favorite over the Bears, with the total sitting at 46.5 points.

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Baylor vs Oklahoma State Predictions

Baylor Bears +5.5 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
Total: 46.5 Points
Oklahoma State won the regular season meeting 24-14 despite being -3 in the turnover battle.
Oklahoma State is 9-0-1 against the spread in the Cowboys’ last ten games.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are aiming for their first Big 12 Championship since 2011 as they face a team they’ve already conquered this season in 10-2 Baylor.

Baylor had a chance to win that first meeting between the pair back on October 2nd as the Bears made an 84 yard drive with just 12 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter to get within 3 points of the Cowboys in that game.

That was as close as they came however as Oklahoma State eased away with a touchdown 2 minutes from time to put a 10 point sheen on the final score in that one.

That ‘sheen’ however was well deserved as the Cowboys dominated the stat counter in that game from start to finish, owning a 24-10 first down advantage in that game, had over 9 minutes more time of possession than the Bears did and outyarded Baylor 401 to 280 also, with Sanders 3 interceptions allowing Baylor to hang around longer in that game than they perhaps should have.

Oklahoma State enter Saturday’s Big 12 clash coming off a huge 4th quarter rally to see off the Oklahoma Sooners last week in Stillwater. Two touchdowns in the 4th quarter gave the Cowboys the edge in that game and that kind of momentum swing will be a huge confidence booster for them ahead of this weekend’s Big 12 Championship clash against Baylor.

The Cowboys are one of only three FBS teams this season, the others being Georgia and Alabama, with at least four wins over AP Top 25 ranked opposition at time of game this season, and they’re only continuing to get better as the season wears on.

Despite last week’s close call against the Sooners, Oklahoma State have beaten their last five opponents by a combined 202-56 scoreline and rank as the #3 best defense in the entire country this year on total opponent yards per game allowed (#2 on the road). Along with that the Cowboys lead the nation in total sacks, tackles for loss and 3rd down defense this season also, so Baylor will need to be at their absolute best here on Saturday in order to turn this Cowboy’s team over and claim their first Big 12 Championship win since 2014.

Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening here on Saturday as Oklahoma State continues to be the cream of the Big 12 class this season and they should win this one by a touchdown plus.

Take the Oklahoma State Cowboys in AT&T Stadium on Saturday to win and cover by margin against the Baylor Bears and deliver another Big 12 Championship title to Stillwater.

What can Oregon do differently to reverse the drubbing they received from Utah two weeks ago? Join Joe, Dave, Adam and Bryan for College Football Daily as we preview this weekend’s NCAAF conference championship games. https://t.co/wRkrItY6DY

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 30, 2021

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Analysis from The GoldSheet

Baylor hasn’t been notching many style points the past two weeks, but the Bears don’t care that their wins over Kansas State and Texas Tech were less-than-artistic; avoiding a letdown after the Oklahoma upset on Nov. 13 was all that mattered to get the Waco bunch into the Big 12 title game. Now, however, merely careening out of trouble won’t be enough if Baylor wants to reverse its 24-14 loss at Stillwater on October 2.

Admirably, the Bears have kept ticking since QB Gerry Bohanon went down with a leg injury in the Nov. 20 win at Manhattan, with frosh backup Blake Shapen proving serviceable enough to outscore the Wildcats and Red Raiders (barely so on the latter). Shapen has avoided the big mistakes the past two games, but we suspect the Bears are going to need a bit more to dent Jim Knowles’ Buddy Ryan-like Cowboy defense that leads the nation in sacks (49) and tackles for loss (99).

OSU also proved a handful for then-healthy Bohanon back in early October, with the Bears’ offense doing minimal damage through the air (Bohanon 13-of-27 with no TDs), and the offense pretty much limited to Abram Smith’s 55-yard TD burst in the third quarter that temporarily cut the lead to 14-7. But OSU had assumed command of the game in the first half when outgaining the Bears 256-99, and aside from Smith’s long run, Baylor’s jarring infantry (ranked 8th nationally at 227 ypg) was not much of a factor vs. the Knowles defense.

Meanwhile, rest assured Coach Gundy will remind QB Spencer Sanders to be a bit more careful than the first meeting when his three picks kept the Bears closer than they should have been. Sanders was guilty of a couple of more picks last week vs. OU, but also did plenty of damage with his legs (93 yards rushing), while Mike Gundy’s offense has had a ground diversion all season with RB Jaylen Warren (1134 yards rushing; 125 in first clash vs. Baylor) and Sanders adding another 510 yards rushing.

Simply not enough evidence to suggest to us that Baylor is ready to reverse the earlier result, especially if forced to go with a frosh QB making only his second start, and Ok State perhaps a result or two elsewhere on championship weekend to make the Final Four if it can win at Arlington Let’s also not forget the Cowboys haven’t dropped a spread decision since Week 2 vs. Tulsa (9-0-1 last ten)! Play Oklahoma State.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Video Preview

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is likely to generate a lot of attention this week as the college football coaching chess pieces begin to move. How will that affect the Bears’ prep for the Big XII title game? WagerTalk college football handicappers Dave Cokin, Bryan Leonard and Adam Trigger offer their Baylor vs Oklahoma State preview.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for all of the college football conference championship games, including this Baylor vs Oklahoma State showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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