Baylor vs Texas Big 12 Football Picks and Odds

Baylor vs Texas Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Baylor vs Texas Big 12 Football betting preview for Saturday, October 30 from McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. At the time of posting, the Bears are a -2.5 home favorite over the Longhorns with the total sitting at 61.5 points.

Stay on top of the latest College Football updates direct from Las Vegas!

Baylor vs Texas Predictions

Baylor Bears -2.5 vs Texas Longhorns
Total: 61.5 Points
Baylor is 4-0 straight-up and against the spread so far this season.
Texas has won five of the last six meetings, but is 0-2-1 against the spread vs Baylor the last three seasons.

Lone Star State rivals are set to kick off Week 9 of the 2021 College Football campaign. The Longhorns of Texas and the Bears of Baylor have a scheduled Saturday morning matchup that has conference title game implications. The Associated Press No. #16 ranked Baylor owns a 6-1 overall mark, while the Texas Longhorns (4-3) might be the best team in the country with a 4-3 season record. Baylor defeated a game BYU Cougars squad in Waco a week ago, in a 38-24 victory behind 188 yards and three touchdowns from running back Abram Smith.

The Circa Sportsbook of Las Vegas opened this Waco venue contest at a pick. The downtown book posted and positioned the game by noon PT on Sunday, allowing resort guests, Vegas regulars, and online gamers the opportunity to take a position on the game. In less than one hour following Circa positioning the event as a pick sharp money moved the number to Baylor in the role of the Bears being a 3.5-point home favorite.

The total opened at 59.5, and in the same period that the spread showed a significant move, so did the total. At the time this Saturday’s gameday preview went to press, an inconsistent buyback on the side moved the handicap back to Baylor being a 2.5-point favorite.

Baylor was absent from last weekend’s slate of events because of a scheduled bye. The week off from the hustle and bustle of college pigskin followed the Bears’ first loss of the year to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Bears’ offense was stymied in the Saturday event versus Oki State. The Bears’ running game has been the most effective variable on head coach Dave Aranda’s offense. The passing attack has been inconsistent despite having significant advantages against opponents with soft defensive secondaries. When the Baylor offense has been good, the strength of the unit has been their ground-and-pound running game.

Bears’ Aranda has not shied away from being a pass-first offense against specific opponents this season. QB Gerry Bohanon has thrown for 1563 yards and 12 TDs against just one interception. Tailback Treston Ebner is a sturdy change of pace from No. #1 Smith in specifically designed schemes and wideouts Tyquan Thornton and R.J. Sneed have combined for 945 yards and seven receiving touchdowns.

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda was pleased with his offense in their victory over independent BYU. The Bears defense is led by linebacker and occasional offensive power Dillon Doyle (4 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 rushing TD, and TD reception). Dillon was productive in his pinch-hit duties at fullback in the victory over the Cougars scoring on a running and receiving play for touchdowns.

Aranda spoke with the Dallas and Waco media earlier this week and spoke to extra-focus pinpointed to the defense. Baylor leads the Big 12 in passing defense efficiency with 118.5 yards passing. The Bears defensive secondary has eight interceptions on the season and the unit has allowed only 198.9 passing yards per game, which is second in the Big 12. The Bears are technically sound in the defensive trenches. Baylor is allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt on the ground.

Baylor has made hay on third downs this season and that uncanny success was front and center in the team’s win over BYU. Texas has been phenomenal on third downs; which team is better on third downs will have a lot of impacts on which team wins on Saturday in Waco.

Texas was in a similar situation a year ago when they met Baylor in conference play. The ‘Horns scored 27 straight points in the 2020 matchup before Baylor could answer. The win was not only needed, it came at a time in which there is an uncomfortable silence in the locker room. Coach Tom Herman was on the hot seat and the players were hesitant to talk about anything that might render dialogue of their head coach being fired.

Longhorns’ QB Casey Thompson wasn’t sharp in his performance against Oklahoma State. Thompson threw two interceptions and one was returned for a pick-6 touchdown. Texas managed only one yard of offense in the fourth quarter of the loss to the Cowboys. When comparing the potential for both of these Big 12 offenses, players, and team schemes, the upside is with Texas.

The Horns are the more explosive unit of these two Texas programs. The Austin troupe has the potential to put points on the scoreboard fast. In contests played in a winter storm, high winds, and rain, it is the Baylor rushing attack that would attract the sharp money.

The conditions in Waco on Saturday morning are nearly perfect for quarterback-to-check down and to-receiver. The Longhorns are explosive and have the best running back in the conference in Bijan Robinson.

The Texas-run defense couldn’t overcome the lack of cohesiveness in their loss to Arkansas. The Horns lost to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in their failure to stop the run. Yes, teams have had success running on Texas.

Texas has beaten Baylor five of the past six seasons. Under Art Briles, Baylor beat Texas four or five times between 2010 and 2014. Texas’ player personnel are banging helmets for pride. The losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State torched any hope that Texas could play in a New Year’s 6 contest or the Big 12 championship game. The updated FPI for the Longhorns still points to the Texas group earning the Saturday win. The FPI metrics give the Longhorns a 55% chance of winning and do so as a field goal underdog.

This Week on ‘Cover It with @teddy_covers‘: College Football w’ @KWhiteyVegas & #NFL w’ @FinnatWagerTalk Listen live on @SportsGrid @SportsGridRadio @SIRIUSXM Channel 204 this weekend or check out the podcast versions here: https://t.co/VgnhlFZxK5 https://t.co/iNIGRgykvN

— teddy sevransky (@teddy_covers) October 29, 2021

Baylor vs Texas Analysis from The GoldSheet

The problem for Texas is that the Longhorns’ rush defense is hardly Georgia’s, and the Bears’ new-found comfort with their infantry (No. 9 in the country at 238 yards per game) could do some business with the low-slung, punishing pair of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner gaining nearly 7 yards per carry between them. Meanwhile, QB Gerry Bohannon not getting Baylor beat as he has tossed just one interception into late October. Still, Dave Aranda’s defense is likely to be stretched like it hasn’t this season, with Sark’s QB Casey Thompson a big-play dual threat who has twice thrown for five touchdown passes in a game (including vs. Oklahoma), while slashing RB Bijan Robinson still getting peripheral Heisman mention and has been gaining 100+ yards rushing every week since the early-season loss at Arkansas. With dogs cashing nicely last week in the Big 12, the Longhorns are capable of overriding the Bears’ recent home success vs. the spread.

Baylor vs Texas Video Preview

Can the Longhorns snap their two-game unbeaten streak? To do so, they’ll have to upset a Baylor team that hasn’t lost at home this season. WagerTalk college football handicappers Kelly Stewart, Adam Trigger and Dave Cokin offer their Baylor vs Texas predictions.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the College Football Week 9 moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages, including this Baylor vs Texas showdown, from your desktop or phone.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.