Birmingham Bowl Picks and Odds | Auburn vs Houston
Birmingham Bowl Betting Preview
Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Auburn vs Houston Birmingham Bowl betting preview for Tuesday, December 28. At the time of posting, the Tigers from the SEC are holding steady as a 2-point favorite over the Cougars from the AAC, with the total at 51 points.
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| Birmingham Bowl | Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Auburn Tigers -2 vs Houston Cougars |
| Total: | 51 Points |
| Game Time: | 12:00pm ET / 9:00am PT on Tuesday, December 28 |
| Stadium: | Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama |
| TV: | ESPN |
Birmingham Bowl Analysis
There may not be a team, and/or game in this bowl season that has been effected by more players opting out of their game then this Birmingham Bowl. This list of Auburn players opting out nearly looks like the Cleveland Browns COVID list the past couple weeks.
The Tigers are missing three legitimate defensive threats, including Zakoby McClain, Roger McCreary, and Ladarius Tennison. Combining for 33 games played (including 24 starts), 166 tackles, 14.5 TFLs, while McCreary leads the team in pass breakups and interceptions and McClain leads the team in tackles and comes in at No. 2 for pass breakups. When you look at McClain and McCreary together, they account for 20 pass breakups this season, while the rest of the team combines for 21 total, which eliminates some major threats in the pass game.
Houston is only missing one major player for the bowl game, NFL prospect Marcus Jones. Yet, Jones may be the single most important piece that is the puzzle of Houston. He took home multiple 1st team honors (American’s ST POY, Paul Hornung Award, ESPN 1st-team AA, AP 1st-team AA, & CBS 2nd-team AA for CB &KR), as well as leading the nation in punt return avg in 2020 (19.8 yards) and punt return yards in general.
Jones also holds two of the four longest plays of the season for the Cougars, but he has been a part of every game this season, playing in all 13 and starting in 10 of those 13. Not only is he a top kick-returner, but he is also the fifth-leading tackler on Houston, on top of sitting at the No. 2 spot on the team in INT’s (5 – second place has just 2) and in pass breakups (13 – second place has 8), as he exemplifies the most versatile title that comes with the Hornung Award.
The biggest edge that Auburn holds is their strength of schedule this season, sitting at the #2 spot in the country, so you can’t argue that Auburn has played better competition. They have been one of the best teams in the country stopping the run, allowing under 128 yards per game, and holding opponents to just 3.46 yards per carry. Yet, their pass defense has struggled slightly thus far, even though they are in the top-50 allowing just 7.1 yards/pass attempt, they have allowed over 240 yards per game through the air. While there offense has been middle of the pack year round.
Houston holds the definitive disadvantage in strength of schedule, as I mentioned above, but they have put up numbers in all categories and sit in the top 26 through the air, defending the pass, and defending the run. They are one of just 11 teams in the nation holding teams under 110 rushing yards per game, and one of only 26 teams allowing less then 200 passing yards per game. They have been solid through the air all season, and they have been able to get the yardage they need when it matters the most, coming in as the #1 team in the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage.
Against the spread, the story isn’t the same as it is with the stats. Houston has been up and down, even though they have won a lot of games this year. On the positive side, Houston is 4-1 ATS off a loss, but there are multiple trends looking from the other side. Houston is just 1-2 ATS as a dog this season, while splitting their games away from home, posting a 4-4 ATS record and posting a 1-7 SU record w/ a line between +/- 7. When it comes to bowl games they are 0-4 SU & ATS in their L4 bowl games and AAC bowl dogs of less then 7 points are 0-13 ATS.
Auburn can look at things from a definitively different view point in terms or trends and angles. When you look at this season, it isn’t all rainbows and sunshine for the Tigers, they are 1-3 ATS in their L4 games, where they have posted just 19 PPG, they are 1-3 in the L4 games as a favorite, on top of a 2-3 ATS record away from home. Auburn is coming in to this bowl w/ a 1-4 ATS record in their L5 bowls, but in the Birmingham Bowl specifically, the favorite is 6-2 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up loss, the favorite has also covered 4 of the L6 overall but an SEC bowl favorite of less than 5 points is 3-9 ATS in the L12 match-ups.
Interested in placing a bet on this afternoon’s Birmingham Bowl? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
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Birmingham Bowl Preview from GoldSheet
The last time the Tigers faced an AAC team in a bowl game, UCF pulled off a Peach Bowl stunner as a 10-point underdog to current head coach Gus Malzahn. A lack of motivation was to blame, per excuse-making SEC nation, but the truth is Auburn was simply outplayed. In the three bowl games since, Auburn has defeated Purdue 63-14 and dropped games against Minnesota and Northwestern where it ended up being out-toughed and failed to cover either spread. Bryan Harsin is on board now so there’s a clean slate following the previous regime’s failures.
The Cougars were defeated soundly by Cincinnati in the AAC title game, failing to even secure a backdoor cover, so they’ll want to go out on a positive note to secure a 12-win season.
This Birmingham Bowl should definitely have an Auburn feel, and Harsin wants to set a winning tone in his first postseason game. Bo Nix transferred out of the program, so this is also an opportunity for TJ Finley to solidify his place as the Tigers’ quarterback going forward. It will definitely help his cause that the Cougars won’t have top DB Marcus Jones, a lockdown corner who doubled as the nation’s most dangerous return man all season.
Birmingham Bowl Stats
College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Birmingham Bowl before diving into this FREE download.
College Football Daily
Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Tony Mejia and Bryan Leonard for College Football Daily as we preview this week’s bowl slate. In this episode, we’ll break down Purdue vs Tennessee (Music City Bowl); Pittsburgh vs Michigan State (Peach Bowl); Arizona St vs Wisconsin (Las Vegas Bowl); Rutgers vs Wake Forest (Gator Bowl).
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Birmingham Bowl showdown between Auburn and Houston, from your desktop or phone.
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