Boca Raton Bowl Picks and Odds | App State vs Western Kentucky

Boca Raton Bowl Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his App State vs Western Kentucky Boca Raton Bowl betting preview. At the time of posting, the Mountaineers from the Sun Belt are holding steady as a 2.5-point favorite over Conference USA’s Hilltoppers, with the total sitting at 66 points.

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Boca Raton Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	App State Mountaineers -2.5 vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Total:	66 Points
Game Time:	11:00am ET / 8:00am PT on Saturday, December 18
Stadium:	FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida
TV:	ESPN

Boca Raton Bowl Analysis

The first full day of holiday bowl events is Saturday, December 18th, with a terrific six-game slate of college football at its best. First, the Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-3, Sun Belt) check-in as field goal (3-point) betting favorites in a matchup against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5, C-USA).

This year’s version of the Boca Bowl is a clash of video vs. traditional football. The top passing offense in the college ranks squares off against one of the best defensive schemes in the FBS. The two programs kick-start Saturday’s huge slate of holiday games on the FAU Stadium grass of FAU Stadium for a can’t miss must-see TV event.

The combination of Florida weather in December and the picturesque Florida Atlantic campus backdrop sets the stage for a full slate of Saturday College Football, Holiday Bowl Football at its best.

Boca Raton is one of the planet’s most perfect spots for fun in the sun while watching quality college football. The Sun Belt and Conference USA representatives will charge out of the FAU tunnel on Saturday morning for a college football fight for the right to the title of Boca Bowl champs.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Conference USA has had the most appearances in the Boca Raton Bowl, and the conference is a perfect 5-0 in the Boca Bowl.
Western Kentucky, the Conference USA runner-up, finished 8-5. The Hilltoppers won the East Division, featuring former App State non-conference opponents Marshall (2020 and 2021) and Charlotte (2018, 2019, and 2020).
Western Kentucky was 1-4 to start the 2021 season, but the Hilltoppers won seven straight games en route to the title game rematch with the Roadrunners. WKU’s last loss is coming from eventual CUSA champion Texas-San Antonio.
The tradition-rich Western Kentucky football program has been a head coaching stop for the likes of Willie Taggart (Oregon and Florida State, currently Florida Atlantic), Bobby Petrino (Arkansas and Louisville), as well as Jeff Brohm (Purdue).
Western Kentucky quarterback Bailey Zappe is the conductor of the Hilltoppers’ offense. Zappe threw for 5,545 yards and 56 touchdowns while completing 69 percent of his passes.
Zappe has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Jerreth Sterns and Mitchell Tinsley. Sterns was on the receiving end of 1,718 yards and 14 touchdowns. Tinsley recorded 1,299 yards with 12 scoring catches.
The Hilltoppers All-Conference quarterback, Zappe, threw for 577 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions in the conference championship game. Sterns and Tinsley combined for 352 yards receiving.
Senior rush end DeAngelo Malone recorded eight sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss. The defensive secondary of the Hilltoppers had four-player personnel in the secondary with at least two interceptions.
The Hilltoppers averaged 43.1 points per game via the team’s pass-heavy offensive scheme. WKU averaged 528 total yards of offense, with 434 of those coming via the pass.
The Western Kentucky “D” surrendered just under 29 points per game, including an average of 422 total yards. The yards allowed per game by the Hilltoppers had a market share of 261 yards passing and 161 rushing.
The Hilltoppers were money at the sportsbook window. WKU was the third most profitable FBS program against the spread with a 9-3 mark this season.
Six of the Hilltoppers’ last seven wins carried 20 points or larger margin of victory.

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Appalachian State was one of the most profitable programs against the bookmakers’ numbers this season. The Mountaineers were 8-4 against the spread.
App State and Western Kentucky have one common opponent this season, Marshall. The Mountaineers beat the Thundering Herd, 31-30, on Sept. 23. However, the Hilltoppers beat them in the regular-season finale, 53-21.
Appalachian State Mountaineers are making their seventh straight bowl appearance.
The Mountaineers were 10-3 overall this season. Two of the team’s three losses came at the hands of the Louisana Ragin’ Cajuns, with one of those defeats being the Sun Belt Championship Game.
A pair of the App State against the spread failures came in the team’s final two games. Two non-covers, the first against Georgia Southern in the program’s regular-season finale, followed by a straight-up and ATS loss to Louisiana in the already mentioned Sun Belt title game.
The Appalachian State offense wasn’t as dynamic as that of Western Kentucky. The Mountaineers offense averaged 34 points per game that were berthed from 428 yards per game. App State averaged 240 passing yards and 188 rushing yards per game.
The Mountaineers stop-unit allowed 19 points and 326 total yards per game. App State threw for an average of 206 yards through the air and 120 by ground.

Boca Raton Bowl Prediction

As capable and football elite as the App State Mountaineers defense is, the offense isn’t dynamic to make up for any glitches in the coaching staff’s game plan. Once Zappe and the Hilltoppers offense start playing downhill, Katie Bar the Door. The pick to click in the Boca Raton Bowl is a play on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers plus the points.

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Boca Raton Bowl Preview from The GoldSheet

Conference USA’s unblemished record in this game based down in South Florida is on the line. The league wasn’t involved in last year’s game, which featured Zach Wilson-led BYU blowing out UCF, but host school Florida Atlantic has won a couple of times, while UAB and Marshall have joined Western Kentucky in winning once. Every C-USA team has prevailed by at least 20 points and every one of these Boca Bowls has come by double-digits.

Bailey Zappe has had an amazing season for the Hilltoppers, throwing for 5,545 yards and 56 touchdowns, which has left him within striking distance of the single-season records held by Texas Tech’s BJ Symons (5,833) and LSU’s Joe Burrow (60). The Mountaineers will look to keep him from reaching those milestones on their watch and have fared decently against the likes of Miami’s D’Eriq King, ECU’s Holton Ahlers, Coastal’s Grayson McCall and Marshall’s Grant Wells, all very accomplished playmakers. Despite that, dealing with the “Air Raid” is a different animal and it doesn’t sound like they’ll get help slowing WKU’s attack from Mother Nature since it should be too early in the morning for showers to be a factor.

Appalachian State should be able to make inroads through its highly effective ground game and will need veteran QB Chase Brice to produce without being careless. Humid temperatures in the 80’s will test the stamina of both defenses, so the top play here is definitely to ride the high side and expect a shootout.

Boca Raton Bowl Video Breakdown

Conference USA has won every Boca Raton Bowl that it’s been invited to. Can Western Kentucky keep that run going over the Sun Belt’s App State? WagerTalk college football handicappers Dave Cokin, Bryan Leonard and Tony Mejia offer their Boca Raton Bowl betting preview.

Boca Raton Bowl Stats

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Boca Raton Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Boca Raton Bowl showdown between App State and Western Kentucky, from your desktop or phone.

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