Buffalo vs Northern Illinois MACtion Preview for Nov 17

Buffalo vs Northern Illinois Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Buffalo vs Northern Illinois MAC football betting preview for Wednesday, November 17. At the time of posting, the Huskies are holding steady as a 1-point road favorite at Buffalo with the total sitting at 59 points.

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Buffalo vs Northern Illinois Predictions

• Buffalo Bulls +1 vs Northern Illinois Huskies
• Total: 59 Points
• Northern Illinois is 11-2-1 against the spread in their last 14 road games when playing against a team with a losing home record.
• Northern Illinois is 19-9-1 against the spread in their last 29 games as a road favorite.
• Buffalo is 21-7-1 against the spread in the Bulls’ last 29 home games.

Circa of Las Vegas opened NIU as 1-point visiting favorites with a total of 63.5. At the time this game preview went to press, the handicap had come full circle. The Huskies reached a highwater mark of 2.5-point home chalk on Sunday afternoon. When Circa Sportsbook closed over-the-counter business on Monday, the NIU Huskies returned to the opening number of 1-point favorites. The total in this MACtion matchup has fallen four points, from the opening 63.5 to a current 59.5.

Weather: Kickoff temperature in Amherst, New York, is forecast to be a pleasant 62 degrees with a 40 percent chance of rain to fall at UB Stadium. A steady 10-15 mph wind from the SSE will lower percentages of passes longer than 20 yards of air being completed.

This MACtion contest offers the NIU Huskies the opportunity to clinch their first Mid-American Conference West Division championship since 2018. The Huskies own a one-game lead over Central Michigan with two regular-season games remaining. The Bulls (4-6) sit in 4th place in the MAC East and play the role of spoiler for the rest of the season. Buffalo enters this Wednesday night game, having lost consecutive games. Buffalo will need to find a 360 in terms of team form to receive a holiday bowl invite. This Buffalo squad would need to win tonight and follow a victory over NIU with a second straight positive result next week versus Ball State.

NIU leads the all-time series 12-2. However, the Bulls are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 MACtion (weekday) games played at UB Stadium in Buffalo, NY.

Northern Illinois Huskies

The Huskies are balanced offensively when they need to be. QB Rocky Lombardi has been sensational in his last three games, allowing the Huskies to control the tempo and complete a high percentage of his throws. Last week the Huskies needed all 60 minutes of the game clock and a successful 38-yard field goal to earn a 30-29 win over the Cardinals in Dekalb. Lombardi was 23-of-38 passing for 264 yards, and freshman tailback Jay Ducker exceeded the 100-yard rushing mark for a fourth straight game. Ducker carried the ball 24 times for 155 yards (6.5 average) while scoring one touchdown.

The defense has been hit and miss in November, but Lombardi and the offense have done enough to cover the points allowed by the Huskies defense. Opposing MAC foes have stacked the box against NIU’s offensive front. Still, the performances of quarterback Lombardi and wide-outs Trayvon Rudolph and Tyrice Richie have resulted in closely contested wins. The dual-threat ability of junior signal-caller Lombardi (69 carries for 376 yards and 5 TDs) has propelled the Huskies into controlling their MAC title fate.

Win tonight’s matchup versus Buffalo, win the MAC West, and the result is a 60-minute conference championship test.

Buffalo Bulls Notes

Junior running back Dylan McDuffie has been the Bulls offensive bell-cow. McDuffie leads the team in rushing with 159 carries for 857 yards (5.4 average) and ten touchdowns. He has rushed for 100 or more yards three times this season. QB Kyle Vantrease was 11-of-20 for 151 yards in the Bulls 45-18 loss to the Redhawks last week. Vantrease threw an interception and fumbled on a scramble in the first series of the beatdown by Miami of Ohio.

The Bulls defense is led by senior linebacker James Patterson who has 93 tackles, including 42 solos, with four sacks for 14 yards. However, the Buffalo stop-unit has been bulldozed by the opposition rushing attack the last two weeks. When Bowling Green and Miami University are running the ball for 200-plus yards against your defense, a bowl invitation isn’t in the future of your program.

Points won’t be at a premium in this MAC contest. Northern Illinois isn’t dynamic on either side of the ball but has earned one-possession wins six times this year, keeping their conference title hopes alive and a trip to a bowl game a virtual lock.

NIU is the more balanced offense with a bend and sometimes break defense superior to that of Buffalo. However, Lombardi does enough with his arm and legs to win this ESPN2 MACtion affair and make next week’s matchup against Western Michigan a “to be or not to be” big deal.

Buffalo vs Northern Illinois Analysis from The GoldSheet

Slumping Buffalo has seen the wheels come off its once stable defense the last few weeks, yielding 101 points and 1,020 total yards in the last two games. Now, the NIU defense has shown more than a little vulnerability to the run, allowing Kent State and Ball State to rush for a combined 606 yards (7.8 yards per carry) over the past two games. However, Buffalo’s run game has been ordinary the past four games (3.5 yards per carry) as the offense has become more reliant on the arm of QB Kyle Vantrease, who was banged around two weeks ago against Bowling Green and had a disappointing game at Miami, completing just 11-of-20 passes for 151 yards and has had turnover issues (-5 TOs the last two games). This is a revenge game for Northern Illinois, as the Bulls snapped a 12-game series winning streak with a decisive 49-30 victory in DeKalb last season. Play Northern Illinois.

Best Damn College Football Show

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WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for every College Football Week 12 game, including this Buffalo vs Northern Illinois showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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