Camellia Bowl Picks and Predictions | Ball State vs Georgia State
Camellia Bowl Betting Preview
WagerTalk college football handicapper Las Vegas Cris, with the assistance of Ron W, offers his Georgia State vs Ball State Camellia Bowl betting preview for Saturday, December 25. At the time of posting, the Georgia State Panthers have climbed to a 6-point favorite over Ball State, with the total at 51 points.
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| Camellia Bowl | Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Georgia State Panthers -6 vs Ball State Cardinals |
| Total: | 51 Points |
| Game Time: | 2:30pm ET / 11:30am PT on Saturday, December 25 |
| Stadium: | Crampton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama |
| TV: | ESPN |
Camellia Bowl Analysis
Ball State was never going to replicate last year’s fine record. They beat Buffalo to get this invite at 6-6. Georgia State had a nice season, finishing 7-5. They won six of their last seven, many in convincing fashion. Left to accomplish? Winning a bowl game.
Ball State Cardinals
Ball State was somewhat consistent no matter the opponent. The overall point ratio was 24.5-26.5, and their point ratio vs. 2021 bowl teams was 23.5-29.5. QB Plitt has tons of experience, but surprisingly was less accurate, hitting around 60.5% after a two-year 65% output. He’s careful with the football.
The run game was a bit below par at just under 4.0 yards-per-carry, but they have an emerging RB. Carson Steele ran 93-401 in just the last four games. Georgia St has a tough run defense, so I don’t have him topping 100 yards in this game. Ball St has three solid WR targets. They need to stretch the field more than they have been. Thanks to Plitt, the turnover ratio is +9. Kicking is solid at 16-21. The sack ratio is 23-21.
Georgia State Panthers
The Panthers could not compete in September against Army, North Carolina and Auburn, but later in the year they upset Coastal 42-40 and lost a close one to Sun Belt champ UL Lafayette 21-17. They also finished with a slightly negative point ratio. QB Grainger hit 58% with a 16-4 ratio but the team fared better when they featured the run. They ran the ball 545 times this season, utilizing two highly efficient RB’s. Grainger also runs effectively, giving Georgia St the edge in this facet of the game.
Ball St has a decent enough run D to slow them down, but if the chains keep moving, fatigue could set in. Ball St’s pass D is not good, at 65.3%. Georgia St might be tempted to throw more, but the ideal stat sheet would read something like 16-25. Georgia St tends to ignore their RB’s when throwing the ball, and they spread the ball around to as many as six WR’s/TE’s. The Panthers have a decent 34-24 sack ratio and their kicker was 10-12.
Keys to the Game
Ball St has to force Georgia St to pass. That sounds strange given their high pass D%, but Georgia St is far more comfortable using the run to establish the pass. Plitt needs to rise above his 2021 #’s and display his full skill set. Can RB Steele exceed my expectations? Georgia St should stick to what they do best. The defense might have some work to do when stopping veteran QB Plitt. Who will win that battle, as Plitt has the experience, but Georgia St has a decent defense?
Camellia Bowl Prediction
It’s a bit unusual to recommend a favorite in these types of games, but given the level of opponents faced, I’m surprised that the Panthers have the coveted rush numbers in their favor. I think Ball State’s Plitt is the better QB, but my studies show Georgia St as having the better defense. Ball St rose to the occasion as a bowl underdog last year. Maybe they can do so again, but in a close call, I’ll put this one at 27-20 in favor of Georgia State. Watch the weather report closely. I have a lean to the under 51 total if the weather is not ideal.
Can the Hokies impress new head coach Brent Pry in next week’s Pinstripe Bowl? Join Drew, Ralph and Rob for the Best Damn College Football Show. https://t.co/UGRtNXvXYR
— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) December 22, 2021
Camellia Bowl Preview from GoldSheet
Camellia Bowl Video Breakdown
WagerTalk college football handicappers Tony Finn, Dave Cokin and Teddy Covers offer their Camellia Bowl betting preview.
Camellia Bowl Stats
College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Camellia Bowl before diving into this FREE download.
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