Cincinnati vs Houston Picks and Predictions

Cincinnati vs Houston Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Cincinnati vs Houston betting preview for the AAC Championship on Saturday, December 4 at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. At the time of posting, the Bearcats are holding steady as a 10.5-point favorite over the visiting Cougars, with the total sitting at 53 points.

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Cincinnati vs Houston Predictions

Cincinnati Bearcats -10.5 vs Houston Cougars
Total: 53 Points
Houston has won its last 11 games after dropping the season opener to Texas Tech. The Cougars are 4-2 against the spread away from home this season.
Cincinnati is 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games vs FBS foes at Nippert Stadium.

This conference championship may have the most on the line this weekend. Cincinnati is looking to potentially become the 1st team to make the CFP outside the power 5 conferences. Although, they will have to go through Houston, who isn’t a walk in the park by any means.

This will be the 15th time that these two teams meet, but Cincinnati holds the edge winning 10 out of the previous 14 meetings, including taking the W in 7 out of the L9. The Bearcats have been just as good ATS, w/ a 10-3-1 record, which includes an 8-2-1 record in the L11, and a 5-1-1 record in the L7. Cincy has also posted a 5-1-1 record at home (including 4-0-1 as a home favorite). Yet, in the six AAC championships that have been played, the favorite is 5-1 SU, but just 3-3 ATS.

This championship looks like it will come down to defense, seeing as the offense’s are very similar statistically (similar to many of the other games this weekend). UC is #8 in PPG (39.6), while Houston is just behind them putting up 38.8 PPG and coming in at #9 in the FBS. Both teams are averaging over 400 yards of offense, but Cincinnati has taken advantage of every play, putting up 6.81 yards per play (#7 in the country). Even though the Bearcats are #50 in rushing yards per game & #48 in passing yards per game, they rank in the top 20 in YPC & yards/pass attempt. When in comes to the defenses, both teams are in the top 10 in YPG allowed & YPP allowed.

The best way, in my opinion, to really compare these teams H2H is to take their common foes into account. UC & Houston both played Navy, Tulsa, Tulane, East Carolina, SMU, USF, and Temple. In those 7 games Houston covered the spread 4 times, behind almost 40 PPG & 436 YPG, while the defense allowed 23 PPG to the opponents and just 317 yards. Houston did DOMINATE the turnover battle in those 7 games, averaging 2 takeaways per game and losing just 3 TO’s total. Cincinnati on the other hand covered just 3 games, but they put up a similar 38 PPG on 435 yards, but the defense outplayed Houston, holding opponents to under 16 PPG on just 301 yards on average. The Bearcats did win the TO battle as well, but by a much slimmer margin, coming out of the 7 games with 16 takeaways (2 more then Houston) but they turned the ball over 11 times.

As I mentioned before, Cincinnati holds the H2H advantage ATS, and Cincy is coming into this game hotter, and more determined then we have seen them this year. UC has won B2B games ATS, while putting up almost 43 PPG in the L3W. They also have the advantage that most teams don’t on championship weekend, they are playing at Nippert Stadium, their home-field in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Bearcats are 4-1 at home against FBS opponents, and they are 4-0 as a favorite of less then 20 points, covering those 4 games by almost 13 points per game!

The Cougars are 3-2 ATS in the L5, but they do hold a 4-2 ATS record on the road. Houston has only been a dog twice this season and they split those games ATS, but they haven’t lost B2B games ATS all season. The Cougars are 4-0 after an ATS L this season as they look to bounce back from the 4.5 pt ATS L to UConn LW. Even though this Houston team has yet to score less then 21 points this season and they have only scored under 30 in two games, this very well may be the best offense AND defense Houston has seen all season.

🏆 Few of this week’s conference championships have as much potential as the #ACC Championship does. Pittsburgh is favored by a field goal over Wake Forest, with the total soaring at 73. @JMSportsCLE breaks down both sides of Saturday’s contest.
➡️ https://t.co/tm0AdH1muw

— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) December 1, 2021

Cincinnati vs Houston Analysis from The GoldSheet

Dana Holgorsen’s team has lost just once in 2021, falling way back on Sept. 4 in a game they led early against Texas Tech. The only one-possession games they’ve played have come against Navy, East Carolina and SMU, which is fortunate since all of those games were played at home. Only one of Houston’s road games came against a team that ended up with a .500 record (Tulsa), and the rest of their hosts (Rice, South Florida, Temple, UConn) went a combined 10-38. That means the Cougars will have to overcome a great team and a hostile atmosphere for the first time. Since getting a heroic kickoff return from Marcus Jones late in the fourth quarter to snap a 37-37 tie against the Mustangs, Houston has barely been challenged, so Holgorsen will have to get his team ready for the best defense they’ve run into all season.

The Bearcats have come out of their lull in which they failed to cover spreads against Navy, Tulane, Tulsa and USF by blowing out SMU (48-14) and East Carolina (35-13). Desmond Ridder hasn’t had a strong enough season to be in the Heisman conversation but the senior quarterback has still been productive and became the AAC’s all-time leader in passing yardage and touchdown tosses against ECU. Although U of H wasn’t on UC’s schedule this season, the teams did meet in both 2019 and ’20, so we’ve got a pair of meetings between Holgorsen and Luke Fickell to examine.

Cincinnati vs Houston Video Preview

After a couple shaky performances, Cincinnati has gotten things back on track over the past couple weeks en route to big wins. Now, can the Bearcats close out the perfect regular season with a win over the Cougars in the AAC Championship? WagerTalk college football handicappers Ralph Michaels, Drew Martin and Rob Veno offer their Cincinnati vs Houston preview.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for all of the college football conference championship games, including this Cincinnati vs Houston showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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