Cincinnati vs SMU AAC Football Picks and Odds for Nov 20

Cincinnati vs SMU Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Cincinnati vs SMU AAC football betting preview for Saturday, November 20. At the time of posting, the Bearcats are an 11-point home favorite over the Mustangs with the total sitting at 65 points.

Stay on top of the latest College Football updates direct from Las Vegas!

Cincinnati vs SMU Predictions

• Cincinnati Bearcats -11 vs SMU Mustangs
• Total: 65 Points
• Since 2019, SMU is 5-1 against the spread as an underdog.
• Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.

This is definitely a game that Cincinnati has had on their radar, sights locked in. Although, any team that is outside of the Power-5 conferences that wants to make the playoffs has to take things one game at a home. It has seemed as though Cincinnati’s biggest “competition” to make it in the College Football Playoff is themselves, they are sitting right around the No. 100 ranking in strength of schedule, with the only two “resume building” wins coming against Notre Dame and Indiana.

This game was shaking up to be a battle of the unbeaten teams, and one of the more competitive AAC match-ups. Even though this game doesn’t hold quite as much potential as the Bearcats would have hoped, it still is, without a doubt, the toughest game left on their regular season schedule. Now this Bearcats team gets to head home and prove their worth, they have been a powerhouse team in Nippert Stadium especially, and Saturday is dedicated to it’s seniors and I expect them to show up and win a big one for the senior class.

When it comes to strength of schedule, as I mentioned above, even though SMU isn’t going to be fighting for a CFP spot any time soon, their SOS isn’t much better then Cincinnati but their stats don’t tell the same story. The Mustangs actually are ahead of Cincinnati in a surprising number of statistical categories, especially against conference opponents. Against AAC competition SMU is No. 26 in yards per game differential, out-gaining opponents by 81.5 yards per game, posting 465 yards of offense & allowing just 383. All those yards have definitely led to some high scoring affairs for SMU, they are averaging 40.7 points per game while allowing 27.8, resulting in the No. 18 ranking in points per game differential against the conference (+15.7). They are averaging over 6.5 yards per play this season, while allowing the opposition to put up just 5.54 yards per play.

SMU has also struggled a little to keep possession of the ball, sitting at (-3) in the turnover battle against the conference, losing eight turnovers in six games, while forcing just five, although they are positive in the sack differential column. This season as a whole SMU has sacked the opposition 26 times in 10 games (2.6 sacks per game), including 19 of those coming against conference foes, while they have allowed just 11 sacks on the season (which all came in conference play). One of the most impressive parts of SMU’s offense is their ability to make big plays happen. In ten games the Mustangs have put up 250 plays of 10+ yards (148 in conference play), but their defense does give up the same big plays, allowing 200 in their 10 games (109 against conference foes).

Some have questioned Cincinnati’s abilities and have been a hot topic in the discussion of playoff teams, and this is one of their last chances to prove if they deserve it or not. I do think UC will win the game, but with this big of a line, I’m hesitant to give out UC against the spread. But as I said before, this is one game where Cincinnati can’t stop the pressure that they put on this SMU team because they are no joke, and did spend a decent chunk of time in the top-25 this season.

The Bearcats have definitely been an offensive power house thus far (especially at home, outscoring opponents 227-65 at Nippert Stadium), but their defense is top caliber, especially against the AAC. One of the most impressive aspects of this UC team is the fact that they are sitting at +13 in the turnover battle, forcing 26 turnovers (+8 against conference foes), along with sitting with a (+8) differential in the sack column as well, with 17 sacks against the AAC, but only getting sacked 9 times against the conference.

Kudos to the offense and the defense for the TO numbers & sack numbers, all while out-gaining opponents by 102.5 yards per game (No. 19) , outscoring opponents by 22.5 points per game (No. 5 in the country) and out-gaining opponents by over 2.25 yards per play!

In my opinion, one of the best ways to make a head-to-head comparison is to compare the common opponents and these teams have multiple common foes this season. There are four teams that SMU and Cincinnati have both faced: South Florida, Navy, Tulane and Central Florida. SMU played Navy on the road, w/ the other three coming to them, while Cincy played UCF at home, and traveled to the other three teams.

TEAM A = 45.4 points per game while allowing 23.75;, 527.5 yards per game while allowing 334.5; 3 takeaways (4 lost turnovers); and 13 sacks while allowing just three.
TEAM B = 39.75 points per game while allowing 20.25; 401 yards per game while allowing 307.5; 9 takeaways (8 lost turnovers); and nine sacks while allowing six.

At this point you can probably guess which is which, Cincinnati definitely under performed in comparison to SMU. The Mustang won all four games and covered three out of four, while UC won all three games, but only covered one.

While Cincinnati has shown to be the better team so far this season, against the spread is a little bit of a different story, although SMU hasn’t pulled ahead by much. SMU maybe ahead in the ATS overall record, but all four of those losses came on the road, including losing the last three where they are putting up almost 35 points per game on the road (but they are allowing 33.4). The Bearcats on the other hand started the season 5-1 ATS, but even though they have yet to lose a game straight-up, they have lost four straight games ATS, along with four-straight as a double-digit favorite.

Cincinnati and SMU definitely know how to put up some points, but they have both gone back and forth this year on the total. I don’t have much of an opinion on this aspect just because of the back and forth trends and the question marks behind these defenses, although it is a relatively high total for this Bearcats team, even with the two offenses, I would lean under, but hard to say.

While both defenses are pretty impressive statistically, this should be the hardest offensive threat for both units. Cincinnati has gone under the total in three out of their last four games but this is noticeably the biggest total Cincy has gone up against this season. These teams have faced off five times, and all five of those games have stayed under the total.

🔥🤑 College football, basketball and the NFL, OH MY! Check out who’s been running HOT in each and all sports over at https://t.co/W41QI6Q2p4..! pic.twitter.com/lL2e5WaNKo

— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) November 17, 2021

Cincinnati vs SMU Analysis from The GoldSheet

Since the Mustangs dropped games at Houston and Memphis in a two-week stretch, this isn’t going to be the blockbuster we envisioned it might be as the end of October rolled around. Cincinnati hasn’t played well over the past few games either, failing to cover the spread in any of its last four games. Wins over Navy, Tulane and Tulsa were all in question into the fourth quarter, so even though they’re still in the College Football Playoff chase and could sneak in if they remain undefeated, the quest for style points hasn’t exactly gone according to plan.

The Bearcats will play their final regular-season home date here although they would host Houston in the AAC Championship game even if the teams tie with 8-0 records due to a higher CFP ranking. A loss here would likely mean they would be on the road for that game, not to mention ending their dream of competing for a national title. Outside of a win at Notre Dame, this will be Cincinnati’s toughest test of the season until the conference title game, so looking past the Ponies isn’t a concern.

SMU lost at home to the Bearcats last season 42-13 as two-point favorites but smashed UCF 55-28 to snap its skid, setting a program record with 35 first downs and generating over 600 yards of total offense. Top WR Danny Gray, safety Trevor Denbow and tackle Marcus Bryant all left the win over the Knights due to injuries. Cincy racked up over 500 yards of offense against USF and overcame early turnovers and a 7-0 deficit in rolling 45-28 as tight end Josh Whyle had a big night alongside QB Desmond Ridder. The Bearcats will need their veteran QB to play well down the stretch since this game should be up for grabs in the final 10 minutes.

College Football Daily

SMU presents one of Cincinnati’s last remaining tests this season. Can the Mustangs provide any resistance on the Bearcats’ march to an undefeated season? Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Bryan Leonard and Adam Trigger for College Football Daily as we preview the marquee College Football Week 12 matchups, including Pitt vs Virginia; Cincinnati vs SMU; and Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for every College Football Week 12 game, including this Cincinnati vs SMU showdown, from your desktop or phone.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!