Citrus Bowl Picks and Odds | Iowa vs Kentucky

Citrus Bowl Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Kevin Dolan offers his Iowa vs Kentucky Citrus Bowl betting preview for Saturday, January 1. At the time of posting, the Wildcats from the SEC have climbed to a 3-point favorite over the Hawkeyes from the Big Ten, with the total sitting at 44 points.

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Citrus Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Kentucky Wildcats -3 vs Iowa Hawkeyes
Total:	44 Points
Game Time:	1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT on Saturday, January 1
Stadium:	Camping World Stadium in Orlando
TV:	ABC

Citrus Bowl Analysis

This Saturday afternoon, the 10-3 Iowa Hawkeyes travel to the Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida to take on the 9-3 Kentucky Wildcats in the New Years Day Vrbo Citrus Bowl.

The Hawkeyes enter the January 1st clash against Kentucky coming off a crushing 39 point loss to the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Championship Game early last month and will look to rebound here on Saturday with their first Bowl victory since 2019’s Holiday Bowl win over the USC Trojans.

However, that will be easier said than done as Kentucky have shown themselves to be an almost complete team this season on both sides of the ball.

The Wildcats rank 1st in the SEC this season on rushing offense, clocking up an impressive 215.5 ypg on the ground on average this year, including 282 ypg over their last three starts as well (4th best in the nation), as they continue to hammer RB Christopher Rodriguez Jr. through opposing run defenses this season to the tune of 1,272 yards total.

And it’s not only on the ground where Kentucky have found success this year, with the Wildcats passing for 2,593 yards through the air off the arm of QB Will Levis, with favored target WR Wan’Dale Robinson putting up 1,164 yards and six touchdowns as well this season as Kentucky continue to pose a serious dual threat to opposing defenses this year.

The danger for the Iowa Hawkeyes ahead of this one is that their run defense got blitzed for 211 yards on the ground against Michigan back in the Big Ten Championship Game, giving up an average of 6.2 yards per rush attempt in that game, almost twice their season average. Wisconsin also managed to hang 166 yards of rushing offense on Iowa as well in a 27-7 loss for the Hawkeyes back in late October, and against another elite level rushing offense here on Saturday in the Wildcats, it’s hard to see Iowa being able to stop Kentucky in this one, especially with the fact that the Wildcats have a much more competent passing game than the Badgers as well this season.

The Wildcats always raise their game against high-level opposition as they’ve gone an impressive 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 versus a team with a winning overall record on the season, while the Hawkeyes are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games coming off a blowout loss of more than 20 points in their previous game.

Take the Kentucky Wildcats minus the short number on Saturday to win and cover in Orlando against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the New Years Day Citrus Bowl.

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Citrus Bowl Preview from GoldSheet

That these sides seem to mirror one another is pure coincidence, but at this stage we suspect the Wildcats just do what the Hawkeyes do a little better…run, and stop the run. Especially the former, as UK hits the postseason with a head of steam after punishing rival the ‘Ville with 362 rush yards and 7 TDs (!) on the ground in a 52-21 wipeout of the Cards on “ACC-SEC Weekend” as slashing jr. RB Chris Rodriguez, Jr. (1272 YR in 2021) posted his fourth straight 100-yard effort to close the season.

Making a school-record sixth straight bowl appearance, UK did it with a bit more style this season, at least compared to a year ago, as Penn State transfer QB Will Levis, while not WKU’s Bailey Zappe, provided something of an aerial diversion with almost 2600 YP and 23 TDP, which would have been a dream for last year’s offense and limited QB Terry Wilson.

Speaking of Wilson, Iowa QBs Spencer Petras and Alex Padilla bear a resemblance, as they barely completed 50% of their passes between them this term for a non-explosive Iowa aerial game. Worse yet, top rusher and main Hawkeye offensive threat RB Tyler Goodson (1151 YR) has opted out of the festivities in Orlando. Against a rugged 17th-ranked Cats rush defense, Goodson could have come in handy. But Iowa’s limitations, even with Goodson, were exposed at midseason when first Purdue and then Wisconsin battered the Hawkeyes, who in the end backed into the Big Ten West title after Minnesota upset the Badgers on the final Saturday (Nov. 27) of the regular season.

With only two spread covers in its last seven games, and outclassed by Michigan in the Big Ten title game, Iowa wasn’t providing great spread value past Columbus Day, either, as a defense that looked robust in September began to crack from the burden heaped upon it by the pedestrian offense. By season’s end, Kentucky simply looked a better version of what Iowa was advertised to be. Play Kentucky.

Citrus Bowl Stats

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Citrus Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

College Football Daily

Join Joe Raineri, Ralph Michaels, Steve Merril and Adam Trigger for College Football Daily as we preview this week’s bowl slate. In this episode, we’ll break down Oregon vs Oklahoma (Alamo Bowl); Georgia vs Michigan (Orange Bowl); Cincinnati vs Alabama (Cotton Bowl); and South Carolina vs North Carolina (Duke’s Mayo Bowl).

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Citrus Bowl showdown between Kentucky and Iowa, from your desktop or phone.

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