Clemson Football Predictions, Betting Tips & Team Preview 2023: WagerTalk Best Betting Guide

Clemson Football Predictions & Preview 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Tigers chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on Clemson football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Clemson football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Tigers this season.

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Clemson Football Preview 2023: Clemson Picks for Betting

Everyone thinks Clemson has disappeared, but even with a pair of new coordinators, the Tigers went 11-2 before losing in the Orange Bowl. 

Only a surprising home loss to South Carolina prevented a potential return trip to the playoffs.  Still, no one has patience these days, and the Tigers have changed offensive coordinators again despite scoring 30 points or more in 11-13 games.  What’s the prognosis look like for 2023?

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Clemson Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

QB DJ Ulagalelei has been essentially farmed out in favor of Clint Klubnik.  He’s not a sure thing, and how he performs early on must be charted. 

Last year’s new offensive coordinator lasted one year.  TCU’s Garrett Riley is here to install the latest and greatest “new age” offense.  The run game should excel.  The pass defense percentage has steadily regressed, after years of top tier efforts.  I expect improvement this year.  Their long time PK graduated.  Close game kicking is now a must watch.

Clemson 2023 Predictions, Clemson Schedule:

he ACC schedule is tougher than last year, and Clemson could be vulnerable a few times.  The opener on Monday Night at Duke is highly interesting. 

So is their game vs. improved FSU.  It’s a home game and winnable, but my focus as usual will be on how they respond the following week when they travel to Syracuse to face a team they have had some trouble with in the recent past. 

Games 7-9 represent a tough three-game stretch.  They travel to Miami (supposed to be improved), stay on the road to face NC State (close games at their site) and come home to face Notre Dame.  Do they escape unscathed in this sequence?  Clemson dominated UNC in the ACC title game.  The rematch is at home.  Clemson has (rare) revenge when going to South Carolina.  It had been since 2016 since the Tigers had lost a home game. 

Clemson Football Bottom Line:

10-2 or 11-1?  I think they start 2-1 in ACC play, while the “safe” projection is 2-1 in games 7-9. 

7-1 in the ACC should equate to a title game appearance, while 6-2 might be tricky.  With this schedule, 11-1 could get them into the final four..

Clemson Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

My rush stat formula has been solid at isolating hidden value over the years.  I no longer use it for all games, but it does come into play for about 10-15 games a week after four games have been played. 

The sample sizes are in the thousands, and updated yearly, conference by conference (as some conferences are consistently strong in this area) and checking for recency.  As an example, hidden value can occur if team A is a rush stat pick (based on the spread) despite playing a significantly tougher schedule than team B. 

Other examples are new coaches who are not rush picks are historically play against material (177-116 last nine seasons, with a total sample size over 1,100), and rush picks combined with line value (3.5 points or more difference in my Power numbers vs. the line) are over 60% in success rate for underdogs, and 56.5% for favorites. 

Despite inflated spreads, Clemson is 37-15 in that role over the years, and 20-6 lately, including 5-2 in their last two “down” seasons.  I wouldn’t want to go against them when a rush pick...

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