College Football Championship Recap – Bowl Game Betting Lookahead

College Football Betting Recap For Championship Weekend

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Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his college football championship weekend betting recap as well as his lookahead to bowl season kicking off on December 16th What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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College Football Bowl Betting Preview

This week’s article is all about bowl game preparation. I’ll discuss some of the areas that I find to be important when preparing to write about and handicap the college bowl season.

Let’s start first with a look back at last week’s conference championship action, and what was learned.

College Football Championship Weekend Recap

Defense isn’t sexy, but it wins championships

SMU was forced to play with a backup QB for the first time all season. I usually find that teams rally under these circumstances, as I said in a couple of podcasts last week. Tulane capitalized on an early fumble to lead 7-0 (one-yard drive), but after that SMU dominated defensively, and won 26-14.

Florida State did the exact same thing in their victory over Louisville, who actually was favored by kickoff. Holding Louisville to six points was an underrated accomplishment.

Let’s not forget Michigan, who pitched a shutout over Iowa. Yes, we all know that Iowa has a terrible offense, but what I like about this performance is that Michigan’s offense held its own against Iowa’s fine defense, and never gave the Hawkeyes an opportunity to dictate field position.

Unfortunately, defense isn’t sexy enough to sell tickets and sway committee members

SMU went 11-2, but Liberty got the invite to the New Year’s Six game despite the 133rd and last ranked strength of schedule. Liberty is an offensive machine, but SMU is the better team.

While Florida State is NOT a better team as compared to Alabama, going 13-0, and 2-0 vs. the SEC was not enough. It’s political, yes, but in this day and age where offense sells tickets, the Seminole’s didn’t score enough points.

True handicappers know that matchups matter

The casual observer would not guess that if Washington played Oregon a 3rd time, they would still be an underdog. The same is true if Alabama would rematch against Georgia. That’s what the Power Numbers would say (not just mine, but those who set the lines). But matchup analysis matters, and in both cases, there were reasons to like the underdogs.

Texas is for real

I expected Texas to look good against a below average Oklahoma State defense, but the way they effortlessly took care of business was impressive. Only a last second loss on neutral ground to Oklahoma prevented this team from being the #1 seed.

College Football Bowl Game Betting Advice

Handicapping bowl games is generally far different than handicapping games played during the regular season. While some of the early bowl games seem more like extensions of the regular season, the majority of the games have to be looked at using more than just simple matchup analysis.

Below I will list some of the important points I consider as part of my bowl game preparation.

Motivation matters

Bowl motivation can be defined in various ways, and in all cases, must be one of the first factors to consider. In the last decade, Texas, Oregon and USC (last year) saw their playoff and/or national title game dreams crushed in conference championship losses. Most teams who fit this narrative come out flat during bowl preparation, especially if they are not playing a named opponent.

Another example is when a bowl team hasn’t met their seasonal expectations. Teams used to playing in higher profile bowl games are not going to have the same motivation when tasked to play in a lower level bowl game. This is especially true when a Power Five program faces off vs. a lower-level conference foe.

Some teams are thrilled to be in a bowl game, especially if they haven’t been to a bowl in a few years. As long as they are not overwhelmed by the new experience this could lead to positive results on game day

Site of game can be important

Playing close to home can be a blessing or a curse. Home underdogs in bowl games have fared well, but there are cases where the players don’t “feel” like it’s a bowl game when there’s no travel involved. This is where fan support can come into play.

There are rabid fan bases who will travel anywhere for bowl games and fan bases who do not travel. You can find sites that show which schools returned unused tickets and which schools sold out their allotment and want more tickets.

I’m not advocating a bet be made solely on whether the site of a bowl game appeals to fans of a school, but young college players get motivated by where they are playing, who they are playing and the body language of the staff and the fans, so it is wise to at least read the local papers to see what’s being said.

Not all coaching changes are created equal

Every bowl season brings us games where coaches are either fired, or have left for another job prior to the bowl game. We have several this season, with Syracuse (coach fired) and Oregon State (coach took another job), just to name a few.

Interim coaches can win bowl games, so there is no angle or formula to follow. Instead, I look at the whole picture, and decide if there is an edge to be had.

Did the assistants stay or go? Which coach is in charge for the bowl game, and is he committed to the program or leaving as well? Maybe the Head Coach is staying, but a key coordinator is leaving.

Last year Wisconsin had an interim coach but the Badgers were undervalued because Oklahoma State had numerous players enter the transfer portal, including their veteran QB.

Some key Wisconsin assistants stayed committed to their players. Meanwhile, Hugh Freese had mentally checked out on Liberty during November of last year, and then took the Auburn job prior to their bowl game. Motivation was low for their bowl game.

Speaking of coaches, study their approach to the bowl game

Some coaches will use the extra bowl practices to insert some of the younger players into the lineup, giving them valuable instruction for next season. Other coaches want the players to have fun, and treat the bowl game as an exhibition game more than a must win affair. Any edge you can get from press conferences, practice reports, etc. can be helpful.

Be ahead of the game with regard to player opt-outs

Some players opt out early, while others take part in bowl practices, but decide at the last minute to sit out. Last year’s Pittsburgh vs. UCLA bowl game is an example of trying to get as much intel as possible for both teams, as once word that a QB or another key player would skip the game was known, the odds would shift.

Last year Florida saw numerous key players opt-out, and the Gators were soundly beaten by Oregon State. The year before it was Oregon, and there are countless other examples.

I try to anticipate what players my opt-out before it happens. Players to watch this year include Drake Maye (North Carolina) and Calab Williams (USC), and that’s only a start.

Data matters!

The college game has changed quite a bit since I first became serious about handicapping. Games are still won at the line of scrimmage, but my coveted rushing data model does not work for all regular season games like it used to, especially in a world where coaches change jobs far more frequently, and therefore schemes change.

What I like however, is that the model has mattered in bowl games, and has in fact been even more predictive these past few seasons. Combining line of scrimmage data with other key factors can enhance the overall analysis. My point here is simple. Do not stray from the data as you handicap these games.

Early line movement can matter, but late line movement can be unpredictable

This is not an exact science, but early line moves for bowl games can be somewhat predictive. This is true because word gets out on who is playing and not playing.

The odds could also move as an early correction to an opening line set. My team Power Ratings can usually give me a heads-up on what the line movement will be, but careful consideration has to be given to adjusting Power Numbers based on what players will miss the game.

What I’ve found interesting is that late line movement, especially on games at the end of the bowl cycle, does not mean the movement will be on the right side of the game.

I’ve never been afraid to go against the line moves on New Year’s Day if that movement creates value based on my matchup analysis. In addition, unless its weather related, I’ve also found that late line movement on totals can create value. This is something to keep in mind.

The points made above represent a good starting point. Bowl games are unique in that there are more variables to consider, yet past performance, and line of scrimmage matchups remain important.

One more thing. Special team play is magnified during bowl season. With a majority of teams having three weeks on up to five weeks since their last game, kick and punt coverage units are not always reliable.

Study the return specialists as big plays from this unit tend to occur in bowl games more frequently than they do during the regular season.

NEXT WEEK: I’ll provide writeups and analysis for two of the early bowl games.  

SPECIAL NOTE: The preview will come out on Tuesday, December 12^th of next week instead of the usual Monday.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and to find my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris on Tuesday and Jeff Dawson on Friday, where I discuss NCAA content as well as NFL content.

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