College Football Conference Championship Picks and Preview

Expert college football analyst Ron Marmalefsky gives his college football betting preview heading into conference championship weekend including Clemson vs SMU, Penn State vs Oregon and Texas vs Georgia and more!

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ACC Championship: Clemson vs SMU

Clemson RB Mafah is a threat in the run game (5.4 per carry) and at 230 pounds, is tough to bring down
QB Cade Klubnik (64%, 29-5 ratio) has improved dramatically from a year ago
My corrected for stats rush formula has Clemson allowing 4.8 yards-per-carry, their worst figure in quite some time
Conversely, their pass defense continues to impress
SMU’s offense is one of the most balanced offenses in all of the NCAA
RB Smith has barely been slowed down all year (1,157-6.0 per carry, 14 TD’s rushing, 29 catches, 3 more TD’s)
It may surprise some, but SMU is more of a run first team.
Clemson must win to make the 12-team playoffs. Barring a lopsided loss, SMU should make the playoffs.
My numbers show no edge, but Clemson has a decent team-oriented situation. I slightly favor the under.

Big 12 Championship: Iowa State vs Arizona State

I’m not surprised at Iowa State’s modest run numbers. My projection was 4.25 per carry; they ran 4.45 per carry, adjusted for sacks and kneel downs using my rush formula.
Two WR’s exceeded 1,000 receiving yards. The two seniors are very reliable.
Iowa State’s pass attack will be challenged by an ASU pass defense that exceeded expectations.
It’s been since 2016 since Iowa State had this bad a run defense. The average from 2017-2023 was under 4.0 yards per carry. This year’s squad allowed 5.2 per carry.
ASU QB Sam Leavitt not only stretches the field, but also limits interceptions (5)
Unfortunately, his leading WR, Jordyn Tyson will miss this game. He had 1,101 yards and ten TD’s.
The next best WR had but 17 receptions. Only their TE had more than three TD receptions.
Instead, ASU may ride near elite RB Cam Skattebo, who put up 1,498 rush yards, with 17 TD’s.
One area of concern for ASU is kicking. They made just eight of sixteen field goal attempts, including one of their last six attempts.

Big Ten Championship: Penn State vs Oregon

Oregon’s skilled position players are having outstanding seasons.
In addition, the OL is opening up big holes while at the same, time, allowing just twelve sacks.
The defense hasn’t let down. They have 39 sacks, and performed above expectations both vs. the run as well as the pass.
Oregon has two dangerous kick returners.
As per usual, Penn State’s stat sheet is top ten worthy.
Like Oregon, Penn State is solid at all the skilled positions, and their sack ratio is 32-11.
Penn State TE Warren is elite and is NFL ready.
The biggest issue for Penn State is coming up bigger in marque games. They fell short once again vs. Ohio State, and were all out to barely defeat a mediocre USC team, the second-best opponent on their schedule.
The two teams have not met since 1995

SEC Championship: Texas vs Georgia

This is a rematch of the game played on October 19^th. Texas hosted Georgia as a five-point favorite and lost 30-15.
In that game, Georgia built up a 23-0 halftime lead. Carson Beck (Georgia) survived three interceptions and Georgia held on for the win.
Texas has the more impressive running resume. In his last seven full games, RB Quintrevion Wisner has run for an average of over 105 yards per game.
Both QB’s were slowed down on October 19^th. As these defenses defend the pass well, it could happen again.
Georgia has by far the more accurate kicker.
Georgia easily won the sack battle in that first meeting 7-1. For the season there is no edge for either team.
Excluding the 30 points scored by Georgia, Texas allowed only 110 points in their other eleven games.

Mountain West Championship: UNLV vs Boise State

This matchup is included because the winner is the most likely participant in the new 12-team playoff format. In addition, there’s still a possibility that if Boise wins with style, they will be rated ahead of the Big 12 title winner, which would be a massive accomplishment. If that happens, Boise would have a first-round bye.

This game is at Boise. The two teams played at UNLV on October 25^th, in a game won by Boise, 29-24.
In that game, the rushing data was almost identical. The passing stats were also very close.
Boise had a near 8-minute time of possession figure in that game.
Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty ran 33-128, with one TD. UNLV did a great job limiting his effectiveness.
UNLV’s overall rush attack may be even harder to stop (over Boise). They ran 5.85 per carry in 2024.
Boise’s sack ratio was 45-11. UNLV’s was 36-24, but Boise won the sack battle, 6-0 in that last meeting.
Both teams score frequently when entering the red zone, but UNLV settled for 21 field goals (Boise 9).

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