College Football National Championship Predictions and Odds

National Championship Betting Preview

SportsMemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Alabama vs Georgia National Championship betting preview for Monday, January 10. At the time of posting, the Bulldogs are holding a 3-point favorite over their rivals the Alabama Crimson Tide, with the total sitting at 52 points.

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National Championship	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Alabama Crimson Tide +3 vs Georgia Bulldogs
Total:	52 Points
Game Time:	8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT on Monday, January 10
Stadium:	Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV:	ESPN

National Championship Analysis

This has been a season like no others, from the likes of COVID, to teams dropping out of bowl games, to a championship game that ends up being a re-match that we just saw a few weeks prior. Dating back to 2010 this is just the 5th time that we have seen a bowl match-up be a repeat of previous opponents, and the 2nd time in the National Championship game, along with the 2nd time that in includes the Crimson Tide. The 2010 Holiday Bowl featured Nebraska & Washington, who faced off in Nebraska’s 1st road game of the year, the 2012 Liberty Bowl was a rematch of the opening weekend match-up between Iowa State and Tulsa, and the 2016 Heart of Dallas Bowl featured Army and North Texas who squared off in the first week of the year. In 2012 Alabama faced off against LSU for the title that year, which was a rematch of their November match-up that year, yet no teams in recent memory have met in twice in three scheduled weeks.

Trends Against Similar SEC Rivals

Georgia and Alabama are set to face-off again, and in both of their last two match-ups Alabama came away with the 41-24 win. While Georgia has fared better against the common foes, in the likes of Arkansas, Auburn, Florida & Tennessee. Georgia covered in all four games, holding the opponents to just 8.5 PPG, and putting up 36.5 points themselves, while Alabama on the other hand covered just one of the four games, posting 37.3 PPG but allowing 27.5 points on average to the opposition.

Combined those eight games went over the total just three times, but from the looks of it, we can be prepared for another high scoring affair between these two teams. The over is 12-8-1 in Georgia’s last 21 games on a neutral site vs. the SEC coming off a win, while the over is 26-13-2 in Alabama’s last 41 on a neutral site, and 15-7-1 on a neutral site off a win. These two teams have gone over the total in 10 of the last 12 head to head match-ups. These two teams have matched up four times on a neutral site and three of those games went over the total, with one coming in as a push. Alabama has also gone over the total in five out of the last six games on a neutral site following a game where they allowed ten or less points, and in the last three years they have held opponents to nine or less and they have gone over in nine of the following ten games. The Crimson Tide also held Cincinnati to just three points in the first half in the semi-finals, and when they accomplish that feat they have gone over in 11 of the next 12 games.

Recent History of Alabama and Georgia Against the Spread

Will the trends be right or will history repeat itself in this rematch? Georgia has been a solid rush team this year (190-230 rushing yards/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 rushing yards/game) after 7+ games into the season after allowing 100 or less rushing yards, like they did to Michigan, is 51-17 against the spread! Georgia is 51-25 against the spread on the road off one or more consecutive games under the total, and the road team is 20-8 against the spread revenging an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. Head Coach Kirby Smart is ready to attack in one of the biggest games in his tenure, and he looks to continue his 18-5 against the spread record after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a 15-4 against the spread the record after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in the previous outing, and he is 20-7 against the spread on the road following a game where they committed one or less turnover! Georgia also looks to take advantage of one of Nick Saban’s lone weaknesses, a 7-19 against the spread record in his career against a team that averages 42 or less penalty yards per game. Which is something that Alabama hasn’t seen much of, especially with all their pass interference calls against them this season.

Alabama does have some big trends on their side headed into this National Championship game as well. The Crimson Tide are 47-28-1 against the spread on a neutral site, but that falls to 22-20-1 off a win, but only in 11 of those games have they been a dog, posting a 8-2-1 against the spread record in those 11 (just 6-5 straight up). Alabama is 6-10 against the spread on a neutral site after allowing 10 or less points in their previous game, but they have covered just three of the last 12! Although, to Alabama, yardage seems to be the bigger factor, they are 11-3 against the spread after out-gaining opponents by 100+ yards in 3 consecutive games in the last two years, on top of posting an impressive 8-1 against the spread record on the road against teams allowing less then or equal to 90 rushing yards per game.

In my opinion, I expect to see another high scoring affair, I am rolling with the over, but the real question is will Nick Saban add to his 74-48 against the spread record after 3+ straight up wins? That remains to be seen.

Interested in placing a bet on the National Championship? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

🏆 Despite defeating the Bulldogs in the #SEC Conference Championship, Alabama are underdogs of a field goal, with a total of 52. Can Georgia successfully seek revenge? @teddy_covers considers the #NationalChampionship as part of his #BigGameBreakdown.
📺 https://t.co/hKnUXySQa9 pic.twitter.com/jAB0ShtIOg

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) January 6, 2022

National Championship Preview from GoldSheet

We don’t have to amplify much further on the predictable talking points that will be making the rounds thru the sports media all week for this all-SEC FBS title game at Indy, including the seven straight Tide wins over Georgia (the most-recent two by identical 41-24 scorelines since last season!) and Nick Saban’s near-spotless 25-1 straight up mark in his career against former assistants…including the Bulldogs’ Kirby Smart, against whom Saban is 4-0. Nor do we have to re-hash too much of the common knowledge that Smart has held leads on Saban’s Bama, before blowing each in all four of their head-to-head meetings beginning with the national title game four years ago in Atlanta.

We do, however, think mention of the most-recent meeting on Dec. 4 in the SEC Championship game is worth a bit further examination, partly because the dynamics last month in Atlanta were completely different from what we’ll get at Lucas Oil on Monday. Specifically, no urgency on the part of Georgia un the first meeting other than the chance to likely knock the Tide out of the playoffs; the Bulldogs’ place in the Final Four was already secure, and many SEC insiders (especially those close to the Georgia side) suggest the Bulldogs’ reaction (or non-reaction) after blowing a 10-0 lead was merely an extension of the lack of necessity to win the game.

National Championship Stat Sheet

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a comprehensive National Championship stat sheet featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on Monday’s National Championship game before diving into this FREE download.

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WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including the National Championship showdown between Alabama and Georgia, from your desktop or phone.

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