College Football Week 5 Betting Notes

College Football Week 5 Betting Preview

WagerTalk handicapper Dave Cokin offers analysis on games that just missed his College Football Week 5 betting card. Each week on Twitter, Dave shares the games that fell just outside his comfort zone. Here, he expands upon those games with reasons why he was drawn in a particular direction, and why ultimately he decided to pass.

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NCAAF Week 5 Notes

Again, just to reiterate: As of Friday afternoon, these are games that I have not bet. I am simply sharing some of my notes that may, perhaps, assist in your handicapping as you break down the College Football Week 5 card.

Utah State +9.5 vs BYU: I definitely feel that the Aggies can compete with BYU, but my required number was +10.5 and I am not willing to settle for anything less.

Clemson -14.5 vs Boston College: I expect the Clemson defense to control the Boston College offense, but I can’t back the Tigers with their anemic offense. Clemson also has some injury issues. That’s enough to keep this in the “added opinion” category.

Troy +6.5 at South Carolina: Should have played this Sunday night at +8 or better. I can’t back the Trojans at +6.5, but this is an upset possibility. I thought this line might rise with Troy off a very bad loss to UL-Monroe, but that didn’t happen.

This week’s free play college football vid is here. The written version and everything else is now up at @WagerTalk https://t.co/crCpGZvtUv pic.twitter.com/bTO8Hl48Kr

— Dave Cokin (@davecokin) September 29, 2021

Penn State -12.5 vs Indiana: This is a serious revenge spot for Penn State, and Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. is struggling. I missed the -10.5 earlier in the week and won’t lay two points more than that. It’s simply a bad wagering strategy to accept beat-up lines.

Eastern Michigan +1 at Northern Illinois: My target number was +3, and it never got there. The Eagles are the slightly better team on my numbers, but +1/+1.5 is not bet-able value, in my opinion.

San Jose State -27.5 vs New Mexico State: The Spartans should obliterate hapless New Mexico State, but their offense just isn’t clicking enough for me to feel comfortable with them as massive chalk.

Georgia -18 vs Arkansas: Surprising Arkansas has matchup issues here and the Bulldogs should cruise, but the Razorbacks’ defense might be good enough to keep this from getting out of hand. Laying -17 was my ceiling.

Texas A&M -7 vs Mississippi State: The Aggies’ outstanding defense should contain the Mississippi State air attack, but I simply cannot lay this number with how poorly the A&M quarterback has performed.

Liberty +2 at UAB: I’ve got the Flames -1.5 on my ratings, so I was hoping for +3 but it’s not there. This is also the first home game for UAB in its brand new stadium, and Liberty is coming off a very tough loss. It’s not an ideal scenario for the Flames.

College Football Week 5 Analysis from The GoldSheet

Each week, the GoldSheet posts their stat logs for the prior week’s games to help you find statistical anomalies. Here are some things to note from last week’s games:

• Oregon beat Arizona by 22 points, but the Wildcats had an astonishing 14 more first downs than the Ducks.
• Army won (and covered) vs Miami (Oh) last week despite not completing a pass.
• Utah fumbled six times (lost three of them) vs Washington State.
• West Virginia fumbled three times vs Oklahoma and didn’t lose any of them, while North Carolina fumbled three times vs Georgia Tech and lost all three.
• Alabama returned two kickoffs for a touchdown last week vs Southern Miss.
• Kentucky out-gained South Carolina by 116 yards and had ten more first downs, but lost the turnover battle 3-0.
• Nebraska out-gained Michigan State by 186 yards and had 14 more first downs…and lost to Michigan State.
• Old Dominion out-gained Buffalo by 136 yards and had ten more first downs, but lost outright to the Bulls.
• Charleston Southern had TWENTY more first downs than East Carolina last week (34-14).

College Football Daily

Arkansas has been the talk of the SEC so far this season with upset wins over Texas and Texas A&M. The Razorbacks still find themselves as 19-point underdogs on the road in Athens on Saturday against the No. 2 Bulldogs. Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Ralph Michaels and Teddy Covers for College Football Daily as we preview the marquee College Football Week 5 matchups, including Stanford vs Oregon; Clemson vs Boston College; Georgia vs Arkansas; and UCLA vs Arizona State.

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WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track college football moneylines, point spreads, first half spreads, team totals and so much more from your desktop or phone.

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