College Football Weekend Preview | CFP Overview

Expert college football analyst Ron Marmalefsky looks at his updated College Football Playoff ratings heading into Week 14 of action!

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How College Football Playoff Seeding May Shake Out

1. Winner Oregon – Ohio State

2. Winner Georgia vs. Texas or Texas A&M

3. Winner SMU, MFla or Clemson

4. Big 12 winner

5. Loser Oregon – Ohio State

6. Penn State

7. Notre Dame if beats USC

8. Texas or Tennessee

9. Texas, Tennessee or Georgia

10. Indiana

11. Loser SMU or Miami Fla if they finish 11-1, then 11-2

12. Boise State

Conference by Conference Look

1. ACC: 2 bids for now.  It’s a one bid league if second place team has more than 2 losses 
2. Big 12: 1 bid league
3. SEC: 3 bids unless Notre Dame loses to USC, or the ACC second place team falters (or Indiana loses)
4. Big 10: 4 bids unless Indiana falls to Purdue
5. Group of Five: Boise the frontrunner, with Tulane and UNLV up next if Boise falters

Independent: Notre Dame is in with a win over USC, but may lose their spot to a 9-3 SEC team if they lose to USC.

Forecasting CFP Seedings After Conference Title Games

1. Ohio State (Beats Oregon in Big Ten title game)
2. Georgia (Wins over Texas or Texas A&M)
3. SMU (Beats Cal and them Miami in the ACC title game)
4. Colorado (Someone has to represent the Big 12.  I’ve blindly put Colorado here, but they may not make title game
5. Oregon (Clear 5^th seed if loses to Ohio State)
6. Penn State (Just one loss on resume, to Ohio State)
7. Notre Dame (With a win over USC, should have done enough to host a playoff game)
8. Texas (Seems like a steep fall if their losses are only to Georgia twice.  Might be far worse if loses to A&M)
9. Tennessee (Now firmly in playoffs as long as they defeat Vanderbilt, outside shot at hosting in the first round)
10. Indiana (Belongs in playoff picture, but has to avoid a letdown in finale vs. Purdue)
11. Miami Fla (Seeded third if wins ACC, but with recent SEC losses, gets into playoffs if they win this week)
12. Boise State (Win the Mountain West and at 12-1 with a close loss to Oregon, they firmly gets into the playoffs)

What the first round of the playoffs would look like under this scenario

#12 Boise St at #5 Oregon: Rematch of a great 37-34 Oregon victory earlier in the season

#11 Miami at #6 Penn State: Explosive Miami offense vs. a solid Penn State team in a game that is very intriguing

#10 Indiana at #7 Notre Dame: This matchup is LONG overdue and the committee would be wise to make it happen.

#9 Tennessee at #8 Texas: Debatable as to who might host, but this newly formed SEC matchup would be another good one

What could happen if upsets occur this weekend?

1. Clemson gets into the ACC title game if SMU loses to California.  Clemson has to win that game to get a playoff bid.
2. Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU, and a few other schools could steal the Big 12 berth and the #4 seed. 
3. Texas A&M is in the playoffs as the #3 seed or maybe even the #2 seed if it beats both Texas and Georgia.
4. Alabama or Mississippi can still make the playoffs (as a 9, 10, or 11 seed) if the ACC is a one-bid league and/or if Notre Dame loses by margin at USC.  They would still need A&M to lose (Texas would be in ahead of them).  It’s a longshot, but another path would be if Indiana was upset by Purdue.
5. UNLV looks like the favorite to win the #12 seed if they win out, including beating Boise State in the title game.
6. Tulane is my highest rated Group of Five team, but can only get in they have quality wins over Memphis and Army (American Conference title game), AND have Boise lose to either UNLV or preferably to Colorado State in the Mountain West title game.  They may not rise above UNLV if the Rebels run the table.

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