Cotton Bowl Picks, Predictions and Odds

Cotton Bowl Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Alabama vs Cincinnati Cotton Bowl betting preview for Friday, December 31. At the time of posting, the Crimson Tide from the SEC are holding steady as a 13.5-point favorite over the Bearcats from the AAC, with the total sitting at 57 points.

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Cotton Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Total:	57 Points
Game Time:	3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT on Friday, December 31
Stadium:	AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
TV:	ESPN

Cotton Bowl Analysis

Every summer before the late August campus contests begin a four-month journey down the mythical yellow brick road strength of schedule is discussed, debated, and thrown around without regard. The month of November arrives, and the strength of schedule is seemingly the last variable that figures into who the committee will select. The most common denominators in who is and isn’t a part of the January Four is total losses and if a Group of Five program is worthy of being part of the dialogue.

The College Football Playoff four-school bracket has been largely dominated by Alabama and Clemson. The 2021-22 version of the CFP once again includes Nick Sabon and who better to welcome the tournament’s first Group of Five members to the annual party than Nick Saban and Roll Tide.

The Cincinnati Bearcats (13-0, American) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1, SEC) kickoff the championship bracket with a scheduled start time of 3:30 pm ET in Arlington, Texas on the AT&T Stadium turf. In just over a week Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana will host the winners of the two semifinal matchups today and crown the eighth CFP National Champion.

The eight January Four brackets, that have placed a select group of college football programs in a fraternity that is as hard to reach as it is cherished by those that do, welcome what will sooner than later a Cincinnati Bearcats squad that will be historic. Cincinnati is the first team outside of the Power Five to have a shot at winning the national title and that opportunity kicks today.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET in Arlington and when the matchups were announced for this season’s pair of semifinal college football championship events Westgate of Las Vegas opened Alabama as 13-point Cotton colored chalk. The over-under for total points scored was set at 59. When this game preview went to press the odds for this afternoon’s Cotton Bowl found the ‘Bama 13.5-point favorites with a total that had fallen a point-and-a-half to 57.5.

As difficult as it has been for a school outside of the Power Five and Independents to break into the January Four every December it gets more difficult to be the Alabama Crimson Tide and the greatest coach in the history of football, not just the college realm, that being Nick Saban. As ridiculous as that statement might read it’s an absolute. The Bearcats will go down in history as the team that broke the pigskin color barrier. As challenging a feat, the Bearcats tackled and conquered there is no school year-in and year-out with a larger bullseye on the back of their jersey than Saban’s Tide.

After dropping a conference matchup against the Texas, A&M Aggies in combination with Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs had a near-perfect season in the biggest and bad-assed conference in the campus orbit Saban and his minions had no room to fail and realistically remain in the CFP conversation.

The bright neon target that is Saban and Bama had the easy-peezy offseason assignment for Nick’s coaching crew of; find and coach up a GQ figurehead to replace Tom Brady’s … replacement, locate that man-child to step in and fill the shoes with the power and speed of the newly anointed Franco Harris now taking handoffs inside of the Ketchup Bottle and not least develop a sliced bread version of stick’em for the departed Biletnikoff and Branch.

That is correct. For those who think that all coach Nick did this past offseason was babysit Dion and film Aflac commercials you forget that Tuscaloosa would no longer be the stomping grounds for Mac Jones, Najee Harris), DeVonta “Heisman” Smith) and the Dirty Dance waddle of Jaylen.

The intravenous exhaustion I feel for Saban would require a truck stop filled with Mini-Thins if I was expected to perform to what Sir Nick does year after year. Oh yeah, and after all that who is the College Football Playoff No. 1 seed?

It’s been a terrific ride for the Cinderella Cincinnati Bearcats. They took the best punches of the Power Five pundits this season and are still standing; still being the interchangeable aspect of time and the Bearcats’ time is up. Alabama makes its seventh appearance in the eight-college football title mini-tournaments. The winner of the Georgia and Michigan matchup is the only obstacle standing in the path of Saban and his staff.

The Crimson Tide will settle into this Cotton Bowl 60-minute meeting at which time they will depart shaking the hands of the Bearcats coaches and players and ready themselves for a January 10th showdown for the opportunity to capture Alabama’s fifth CFP national title and Nick Saban’s eighth national championship.

Cincinnati is 0-3 all-time in New Year’s Six-caliber bowls. The ‘Cats most recent appearance was last holiday season, a 24-21 loss in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The program that held them hostage and toyed with the Bearcats that game day was, of course, another SEC tradition-rich football program, the Georgia Bulldogs.

Cotton Bowl Injury Report

Cincinnati Bearcats
No significant injuries to report

Alabama Crimson Tide
WR John Metchie III – has been ruled out
DB Josh Jobe CB is out.

Cotton Bowl Prediction

Bryce Young has not only filled the “Size Big” shoes of Mac Jones he did so winning the Heisman Trophy award. Young grew into the role of being a Crimson quarterback just as expected. Young finished the regular season ranked as the second most efficient quarterback in the FBS. The Tide field general tossed 43 touchdown passes for 4,322 yards and was the conductor of an offense that averaged 42.5 points per game.

The skillset of receiver Jameson Williams (21 yards per catch) enabled Young to be the best he could be. Williams was a Saturday clone of what DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle brought to the field. Brian Robinson Jr. was the bright and shiny new vehicle for the Crimson Tide faithful to let go of the departed Najee Harris.

The Alabama defense wasn’t as dynamic as past units but held the opposition to just over 300 yards per game and pressured the quarterback as often as any Power Five program this season recording 46 sacks (third-most in FBS). Will Anderson Jr topped college football with 15.5 sacks. Those who plan a sit-in this afternoon for the Cotton contest will hear the names Phidarian Mathis and Henry To’o To’o more than once.

Cincinnati’s fur cap hangs on the defensive hat rack in the Bearcats locker room. The secondary of the Bearcats stop-unit is as good as it gets in the college ranks. Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant are the conductors of a defense that registered 29 takeaways and tackled the opposing quarterback behind the line of scrimmage 37 times.

The Cincy offense will need to be different, better than they have been on most Saturdays this season if this ‘Cats squad plans to survive and advance. QB Desmond Ridder threw for 3,190 yards, connected with his receivers for 30 TD passes, and was intercepted but eight times.

Ridder is complimented by a half-dozen pass-catching teammates who have recorded 24 or more receptions. Alec Pierce (50 receptions) and Tyler Scott (24) lead the offense and will be two of the reasons that Cincinnati pull off the upset or don’t. RB Jerome Ford, a transfer from Alabama, has 1,242 rushing yards and is important to the success of the Cincy offense but if Ridder and his ‘mates are going to take another step forward in this historic season they will do so with Ridder’s arm.

The WagerTalk pick to click is a play on the Alabama Crimson tide to win and cover in the 2021 Cotton Bowl.

Interested in placing a bet on this afternoon’s Cotton Bowl? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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Cotton Bowl Preview from GoldSheet

The Bearcats will step up to the plate as the first Group of Five team to take the field for a national semifinal, so there will be a lot of “told you so’s” to be had if this showdown with Alabama is over by halftime. The Crimson Tide will be without top target John Metchie since he tore his ACL but has Cameron Latu and Jahleel Billingsley available to step up alongside Jameson Williams, the top deep threat in all of college football.

Defensively, Alabama is the toughest opponent that Cincinnati has seen since defeating Notre Dame 24-13 in what was its lowest-scoring performance in this season. Alabama is plenty familiar with top running back Jerome Ford, who committed to the Tide from Seffner Armwood HS in Florida and spent two seasons in Tuscaloosa before transferring out.

The Bearcats aren’t going to win a shootout against the Tide, so their best bet is to hang around for the duration. Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young should be able to move the offense since Alabama has seen defenses that are probably better than this Cincy squad in Georgia and other SEC squads.

Cotton Bowl Stat Sheet

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on Friday’s Cotton Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

Cotton Bowl Video Preview

It’s the old guard vs the new school in Friday’s Cotton Bowl between Alabama and Cincinnati. WagerTalk college football handicappers Dave Cokin, Tony Mejia and Bryan Leonard offer their Cotton Bowl betting preview on College Football Daily.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Cotton Bowl showdown between Alabama and Cincinnati, from your desktop or phone.

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