Duke Football Predictions, Betting Tips & Team Preview 2023: WagerTalk Best Betting Guide

Duke Football Predictions & Preview 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Blue Devils chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on Duke football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Due football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Blue Devils this season.

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Duke Football Preview 2023: Duke Picks for Betting

I agreed with the decision to let David Cutcliffe go.  I was also more than mildly surprised that Mike Elko took this job, as I suspected he had other options. 

I loved the hire, but thought progress would take some time.  2022 was not a fluke.  Is Duke the type of program that can become consistent winners?

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Duke Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

I liked the staff Elko put together (as noted in this spot a year ago).  The offense exceeded expectations, running for 5.2/188.5.  QB Leonard was outstanding as a dual threat option. 

Last year I called the OL the strongest part of the offense.  This year the OL has a few spots that need to be filled.  The run defense was 5.4-209 in 2021. 

I projected 4.9 in 2022, and again, Duke was even better, at 4.05-130.  The nearly 61% pass defense was on my projections.  Coordinator Robb Smith left, but Elko’s hand-picked successor has worked with him in the past.  This was the youngest defense in the ACC (at least at the beginning of the year) in 2022, and that could bode well now.  I will be charting their points allowed in ACC play.

Duke 2023 Predictions, Duke Schedule:

My 1^st impression last year was that Duke was a flawed team with an easy schedule.  This year, Duke is a solid team with a clearly tougher ACC schedule. 

The Clemson game will be interesting.  With a veteran QB and some solid starters, an upset would not be out of the question.  The toughest non-conference games are 9/23 at improved UConn, and 9/30 hosting Notre Dame, where Elko was once the defensive coordinator. 

I expect that game to be low scoring, and again the Blue Devils will be the underdog.  The team may be more experienced compared to 2022, but the record might be just 2-3 or 3-2. 

Duke gets a week off before hosting NC State, a perennial bowl team.  Up next are road games at FSU and Louisville.  All three of these teams were not on the 2022 schedule.  Duke hosted and defeated Wake Forest 34-31 a year ago.  The rematch is also at home.  This has typically been a road series (Duke was a home dog in 2022), and I grade this game as a tossup thus far. 

The dog has also been the way to go in games vs. UNC.  Duke lost 38-35 (+7) at home last year.  Closing games are at Virginia (3-18 at their place, but Virginia is not as talented) and home to Pittsburgh (not a good home favorite, and has lost four of the last five as a host).

Duke Football Bottom Line:

Everyone underestimated Duke a year ago.  Could that be the case again now because of the schedule upgrade? 

I’m not thrilled with the schedule layout, and certainly the level of competition has been raised.  This team is more talented than last year, but replicating a +14 regular season turnover ledger (+16 overall) is unlikely, and that could cost them a game or two. 

In deference to the coach, I’m calling this 6-6.  7-5 would be an outstanding achievement.

Duke Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

Duke is 7-12 ATS when not a rush pick. 

In a telling sign, they were not in that role a year ago (6-2 ATS when a rush pick).  Given the schedule, I like them if they are a rush pick at Louisville on 10/28, and again vs. Virginia on 11/18.  Other than that, I’ll lean to the dog in many of their outings.  One final note: If electric QB Leonard is hurt, this could all fall apart.  Keep that in mind during the season.

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