Fiesta Bowl Picks and Predictions | Oklahoma State vs Notre Dame

Fiesta Bowl Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State Fiesta Bowl betting preview for Saturday, January 1. At the time of posting, the Fighting Irish are holding steady as a 2-point favorite over the Cowboys from the Big XII, with the total sitting at 45.5 points.

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Fiesta Bowl	Betting Notes
Point Spread:	Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
Total:	45.5 Points
Game Time:	1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT on Saturday, January 1
Stadium:	State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
TV:	ESPN

Fiesta Bowl Analysis

This bowl season has been a crazy one, teams dropping out due COVID related issues, players opting out left and right, all on top of multiple major coaching changes before the conclusion of the season. A big one on that list is obviously the move of Brian Kelly to LSU, while also taking some of his staff down to Baton Rouge with him, including special teams coach Brian Polian & co-strength and conditioning coach Jacob Flint.

Notre Dame will also be without two massive pieces to their team, while they have grown accustomed to playing without Kyle Hamilton after his scary injury against USC, but some thought there may be a chance that he would able to play, but that won’t be the case as he turns his attention to the NFL draft. Leading rusher Kyren Williams will follow suit as well, Williams ended the season w/ over 200 carries for 1002 yards, securing the spot atop the stats on this Notre Dame team, while QB Tyler Buchner comes into this bowl game as the teams new leading rusher.

The only big name that will be missing from the Oklahoma State sideline is DC Jim Knowles, which could be a big loss for a defense as good as the Cowboys, who leaves to take the same role at Ohio State.

The Fiesta Bowl brings together two teams that both sit in the top 10 in defensive rankings, either scoring or overall. Oklahoma State comes in as the #1 team in the FBS in sacks and #3 in overall defense this season and they have proven their worth against the best competition.

Oklahoma State is allowing just 17 PPG TY (18 vs. bowl teams), with just 89 rushing yards per game allowed (only 79 vs. bowl teams), and they are only allowing an extra 3 YPG over their season average against teams that are playing in a bowl this season.

The offense has taken a small step back against this top competition, but not by much, they are still averaging 25 PPG, and while they are averaging 40 yards less per game, their passing game stats have been almost identical, so if they continue to attack through the air, the competition shouldn’t change the approach.

Notre Dame is no joking matter either, they come into this game as a top 10 scoring defense but on the other side of the ball, this will be the hardest challenge they have faced this season. Notre Dame is #3 in YPG allowed (278.4), #7 in PPG allowed (16.8) and #4 in YPP allowed (4.41 yards). This Notre Dame defense has allowed just a point every 17.4 yards against their bowl competition, but the defense as good as the Cowboys are allowing a point every 15.3 yards.

The Fighting Irish are putting up over 30 PPG against bowl teams, even though they are putting up almost 30 less yards against bowl quality competition. Now they have a quarterback who has settled in and have an offense that is performing at a high level.

Both of these teams are coming into this bowl game on a hot streak when it comes to ATS trends. Oklahoma State is on a 9-1-1 ATS run (but they are 0-1-1 in the L2), and their only ATS L away from their home field was in the B12 championship in their most recent game.

Even though Oklahoma State has continuously been an impressive team this season this is the 4th game this season that they have been a dog, and they managed to cover all 3 of the games thus far this season. Oklahoma State returns to a New Years 6 bowl for the first time since 2015, but they have covered their L5 bowls, and look to continue that run in the return to the big 6 bowl.

Notre Dame has also come in on an impressive ATS run, but which run will prevail. Notre Dame has covered 7 straight games, including 4 straight away from their home field. This team is coming off 3+ SU W’s of 21+ points, and in recent past, bowl teams are 7-1 ATS coming off a streak of that caliber.

Although on the other hand, bowl favorites off 6 straight ATS W’s are 2-6 ATS vs. an opponent coming off a loss. Yet in terms of the Fiesta Bowl, the favorite has covered 5 of the L6.

Interested in placing a bet on Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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Fiesta Bowl Preview from GoldSheet

Truth is that for an 11-1 Notre Dame team, the offensive numbers were not remarkable, as the Irish were just 55th in total offense (73rd rushing) although a healthy 20th in scoring, with an assist from a 28th-ranked defense picking off 15 passes. The defense, the strength of the team, ranked 13th in pass efficiency D and 9th in scoring, giving up just 18.2 ppg. But the fact that the Irish returned only 9 total starters makes the Irish record impressive.

Oklahoma State was very close to taking Cincinnati’s spot in the final four for the CFP Championship, but a loss in the Big 12 championship ditched that chance, dropping the Cowboys to 11-2, as they had suffered an earlier loss to Iowa State. Oklahoma State had an uncharacteristically tough defense this season, holding foes to 278 ypg and less than 17 ppg, the lowest such defensive numbers turned in by a team from Stillwater since the Pat Jones era of the mid-1990s. That was despite losing a pair of starters (DE Trace Ford and S Tre Sterling) to injuries in September.

The Cowboy stop troops are a veteran group (avg. 22-years-old) and ranked 3rd in the country in total defense, 5th against the run, and only 6 teams allowed fewer points per game. The performance of the D this season propelled d.c. Jim Knowles to get a job offer (which he accepted) from Ohio State for the same job in Columbus. Rather than leaving early, he’s going to coach his senior-dominated group for one last game before they all move on.

QB Spencer Sanders is the catalyst for an average to below average OSU attack, as the 403 ypg generated by the team since 2014, although the 30.6 ppg was up slightly from last season, but down from the 39 ppg scored over the previous 5 seasons. The emergence of sr. RB Jaylen Warren (a former juco who gained 1134 yds. with 11 TDs in 2021 after helping the Cowboys with 821 yds. and 8 TDs over the past 2Ys) was a boon, but he’s a bit iffy with an ankle injury, and backup RBs LD Brown (undisclosed) and Dezmon Jackson (entered transfer portal) won’t be available.

Personnel problems on both sides appear to point to a lower-scoring game, with the OSU defense potentially being the dominant platoon on the field. Considering both have some offensive personnel unavailable and the probability of an emotional sendoff for Cowboy d.c. Knowles by the Cowboy D, the potential for a low-scoring game seems probable.

Fiesta Bowl Stats

College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Fiesta Bowl before diving into this FREE download.

Fiesta Bowl Video Preview

WagerTalk college football handicappers Drew Martin, Ralph Michaels and Rob Veno offer their Fiesta Bowl betting preview on the Best Damn College Football Show.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines and betting percentages for all of the college football bowl games, including this Fiesta Bowl showdown between Notre Dame and Oklahoma State, from your desktop or phone.

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