Florida vs Florida State NCAAF Picks and Predictions Nov 27
Florida vs Florida State Betting Preview
WagerTalk college football handicapper Tony Finn offers his Florida vs Florida State betting preview for Saturday, November 27. At the time of posting, the Gators are holding steady as a 2.5-point home favorite over the Seminoles, with the total sitting at 59 points.
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Florida vs Florida State Predictions
- Florida Gators -2.5 vs Florida State Seminoles
- Total: 59 Points
- Florida State is 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record.
- The under is 14-6 in the previous 20 meetings between these in-state rivals.
If we flashback to mid-September and access the state of football in Tallahassee and Gainsville, with a look at the Florida State Seminoles and Florida Gators, respectively, we find a much different backdrop than the one currently front and center as we approach the campus action this Thanksgiving weekend.
The stage is set for the intrastate football event that pits the FSU Seminoles (5-6, 4th in ACC – Atlantic) and the Florida Gators (5-6, 6th in SEC – East) in a high noon showdown on Saturday at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
The genius of setting a fixed number that results in a qualifying metric for bowl bids always creates drama on rivalry weekend. Whether the drama is real or a fixture of our imagination isn’t relevant in this paint-by-numbers gameday visual.
A time in space would have resulted in a one-hour Sunday program special on ABC Sports if the Noles and the Gators strolled into Gainsville in late November with just five wins.
Florida State and Florida are set to go helmet-to-helmet this Saturday in Gainesville with bowl eligibility for the winner on the line.
The Seminoles have gathered a garden variety of headlines the last handful of years, bringing into question the state of football in Tallahassee. Florida came out of a promising 2020 campaign and into 2021 with college football playoff aspirations. Instead, the Seminoles gained steam as the season wore on while the Gators choked on and then up with recent unforgivable failures to South Carolina and this past weekend to Missouri.
With a firm grip on the assumption that big happenings were in the wake of the Gators Week 3 two-point loss to Alabama to a Week 12 loss in Columbia, Missouri to a Tigers team that would need to work hard and secure some good fortune to win the MAC title handily defeated one of the four SEC title contenders this past summer.
The result of the Missouri debacle on Saturday ended abruptly with the firing of head coach Dan Mullen. The Tigers took the Gators to overtime and answered an OT touchdown with a touchdown of their following by a winning two-point conversion and a 24-23 victory for the Tigers and all of the Mizzou faithful.
The good news in this matchup is that the 0-4 start in 2021 by the Florida State troupe provided a happy, almost ending to the fairy tale season. The Noles are 5-2 after a winless September and play Saturday for a handful of rewards. Both teams have a dangling carrot for bowl eligibility. The Noles players are competing for second-year bench boss Mike Norvell to own a perfect 1-0 mark in the rivalry series, and to finish the regular season with a level 6-6 overall mark which would push them into an opportunity to earn, then win a bowl game, giving FSU it first winning season since 2017 when the then-6 win and six loss FSU squad defeated So Mississippi 42-13 in the Independence Bowl to finish with a 7-6 overall, including bowl victory, season winning record.
Then there would be that sixth win that not only presents the Noles with a holiday bowling adventure for the entire team and coaching staff, but a win on Saturday also prevents the rival from taking their ball and shoes and heading to the alley for a game and a fifth frame Miller Lite.
Depending on the school of thought you are from, how you feel about the Gators playing under the leadership of a familiar but new head coach can be argued hundred-and-one ways. The argument could be as simple as “win one for the new Gipper” to “win one for the fired Gipper” and so forth. You know where I was taking that theory that would give the current Gators crew hope and enthusiasm.
FSU football defeating Miami Saturday night could signal the changing of the guard in the Sunshine State.
The TMZ producers either lead you down a dark and deserted corridor or attempt to sell you a bright and shiny old car that is foldered as an antique or a classic. Still, either way, the rest of the TMZ story would be littered with bright moments and forecasting sunny skies with no rain today.
It has been but four-plus years since the Noles had a winning season. That 2017 campaign required a bowl victory to have more wins than losses. But the positives of Florida State winning two Saturdays ago over the Miami Hurricanes followed by a second straight “Dub” against a good Boston College team makes a reason for a toast. The three-touchdown performance by quarterback Jordon Travis against the Eagles of BC might even offer a reason for a “don’t call it a comeback” book by Noles head coach Mike Norvell and his agent.
If you set these two teams side by side and had them compete in jeopardy like a competition, who’d win and who would lose would make a lick of George Alexander Trebek difference to me. If you had offered me college football futures on which Florida college football coach would be fired first, I certainly would have had to receive over-the-top odds to push in on that ticket on former Florida head coach Dan Mullen.
Expectations are a funny thing. Furthermore, how individuals, college kids, react to an expectation they failed with or typically differed depending on the person.
If you asked me who I want orchestrating a final series of a drive to win or lose a game in the last weekend of November college football, with one of the rewards being bowl eligibility, and the two quarterbacks actually three, with one of the two choices coming with two heads, four arms and four feet but still one like of mind, my choice, answer, would be dependent on the quarterbacks offered and not the team they play for.
The choices outlined above presented either Seminoles sophomore Jordan Travis, Emory Jones, and Anthony Richardson as a two-headed team.
The choice is easy. Please give me a pair of late fourth-quarter performances that resulted in victories over Miami and the Eagles of BC. Throw in a kid who has not thrown an interception in seemingly forever (across five games that included the defense of Clemson and North Carolina State), and I would wager real money that Jordon Travis is winning me the sixth game and making my team bowl eligible.
đź’° Turkey, turnovers and two-point conversions. Join @kellyinvegas @MarcoInVegas @CalSportsLV and @Greek_Gambler for the final NCAAF regular season edition of Bet On It. The crew offers their thoughts on UM vs OSU and the rest of this weekend’s slate.https://t.co/WQJj5o4C1U
— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 25, 2021
Florida vs Florida State Analysis from The GoldSheet
Well you could have won a few bar bets in September if offering that Dan Mullen would be the coach fired, and not Mike Norvell, before Florida & FSU renewed the Sunshine State hostilities in Thanksgiving week. The coaching carousel now spins at warp speed after the news from Gainesville, with names from Mario Cristobal to Lane Kiffin, indeed almost any high-profile sort other than Steve Spurrier, now linked to the job, assuring that super-agent Jimmy Sexton isn’t going to have a moment to rest between now and mid-December. Now it’s up to RB coach and interim Greg Know to get Florida bowl-eligible, though who knows if the Gators will want to go Memphis or Birmingham with a 6-6 record amid the coaching chaos. Stay tuned.
As we’re hardly convinced that Florida suddenly circles the wagons, we are also hardly thrilled about the idea of backing a team on a five-game spread slide that has recently fired its head coach and defensive coordinator (Todd Grantham, out before the recent embarrassment vs. FCS Samford). The ‘Noles need a win here to get bowl-eligible, too (who knows if that what might be required for Norvell to stay into 2022?), but FSU has at least hinted at some progress as the season has marched onward, displaying plenty of mettle in back-to-back hair-raising wins over Miami and BC, and soph QB Jordan Travis emerging into a competent leader as he tied a season-best three touchdown passes last week at Chestnut Hill. He also hasn’t thrown a pick in his last five games, not to mention managing a couple of road wins (at North Carolina and as noted last week at BC). That’s more of an endorsement than anything we can think of on the Florida side right now. Play Florida State.
College Football Daily
The Egg Bowl has returned to its rightful place on Thanksgiving night. What can we expect as Mississippi State hosts Ole Miss in one of college football’s best rivalries? Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Adam Trigger and Bryan Leonard for College Football Daily as we preview the marquee College Football Week 13 matchups, including Mississippi State vs Ole Miss; LSU vs Texas A&M; Michigan vs Ohio State; and San Diego State vs Boise State.
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WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, first half lines, betting percentages and so much more for every College Football Week 13 game, including this Florida vs Florida State showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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