Gasparilla Bowl Predictions and Odds | Florida vs UCF
Gasparilla Bowl Betting Preview
WagerTalk college football handicapper Las Vegas Cris, with the assistance of Ron W, offers his Florida vs UCF Gasparilla Bowl betting preview for Thursday, December 23. At the time of posting, Florida is holding steady as a 7-point favorite over their in-state rivals, with the total at 55.5 points.
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| Gasparilla Bowl | Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Florida Gators -7 vs UCF Golden Knights |
| Total: | 55.5 Points |
| Game Time: | 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT on Thursday, December 23 |
| Stadium: | Raymond James Stadium in Tampa |
| TV: | ESPN |
Gasparilla Bowl Analysis
Disaster! Florida had high hopes but the season unraveled once they lost at LSU. Their 40-17 defeat to South Carolina sealed Dan Mullen’s fate. Do they even care to be bowling after barely achieving 6-6? UCF pretty much went unnoticed in 2021, and finished 8-4 with new Head Coach Gus Malzahn. These teams don’t like each other, and only recently have agreed to play each other in the future. The game is a sellout!
Florida Gators
Florida had an overall 31.5-26.5 point ratio but finished with a 1-6 record vs. bowl teams. The corrected for sacks rush ratio was 5.45-4.55. I expected 4.5 per carry, so they overachieved in the run game. A pair of senior RB’s should be able to move the ball on UCF. QB Jones has decided to transfer but WILL play in this game. If I’m on Florida’s coaching staff I wouldn’t let him play. He’s a 67.7% passer, only once falling below 63%. As an aside, Jones is also an efficient runner.
Lead WR Copeland has opted out, but Florida does tend to spread the ball around. The status of one of the other WR’s must also be vetted out (in the portal). Defensively, Florida as of Friday, 12/17 will be missing their top tackler and top sack specialist. More defections could follow, just like what happened last year. At full strength, Florida’s sack ratio was 35-12. Kicking is fine.
UCF Knights
UCF only allowed more than 17 points four times, but when that number was crossed, it was crushed. Cincy scored 56. SMU scored 55. Louisville tallied 43. Even Navy broke through, scoring 34. Memphis and East Carolina were the two bowl teams that were stopped, although the Tigers were using a back-up QB. QB Keene hit 63.6% with a 16-6 ratio. That % dipped to less than 60% vs. bowl teams, with far fewer TD passes.
I like the potential of RB Richardson to do some damage vs. Florida’s suspect run D, but for some reason he had just 28 total carries in the final three games. Two WR’s have enough talent to have decent games in this spot. In summary, teams who ran the ball well vs. UCF scored all the points. Four teams ran between 191 and 350 yards. Yes, it’s the four teams listed at the top of this section. All other teams ran 142 or less. That might bode well for the Gators, at least offensively. UCF’s pass D% was just under 60%. Florida should exceed that figure. The sack ratio was 34-23. Kicking was an adventure. They were 5-10, including 1-5 outside of 39 yards.
Keys to the Game
Florida must care. Running works vs. UCF, so establishing the run is critical. They may not stop UCF QB Keene all the time, but can they stop drives near and inside the red zone? If so, UCF’s kicking issues could come into play. UCF needs to do a better job of utilizing RB Richardson, who is capable of five yards per carry vs. Florida. Staying true to the run is critical, as they could be in four-down mode considering their kicking game, so it would be wise to make it 4th and short, not long. Finally, UCF may need to contain somewhat elusive QB Jones on pass downs. Don’t let him escape the pocket, and see if their decent sack number can lead to sacks here, vs. a Florida OL that limits sacks.
Gasparilla Bowl Prediction
It’s nice to have a sellout for a bowl game, but could the fans be 65-35 in favor of UCF? Florida at full strength can be a load, and with an active QB, they could run for 200+ yards, which has led to high scores vs. UCF. But Florida is down two of their best defensive players, their lead WR, and likely we’ll see some more defections announced before kickoff. Despite the run prowess, UCF has the composite rushing data on their side.
I’m factoring bowl motivation with my pick of UCF. The astute move was to anticipate Florida losing players, and therefore to take the +8 or +7.5. The new line is down to +7, and trending to +6.5. Will Gus Malzahn scheme correctly? He’s not an ideal coach in this respect, but coming from the SEC (Auburn), he would love to put this in the win column.
Can the Hokies impress new head coach Brent Pry in next week’s Pinstripe Bowl? Join Drew, Ralph and Rob for the Best Damn College Football Show. https://t.co/UGRtNXvXYR
— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) December 22, 2021
Gasparilla Bowl Preview from GoldSheet
Florida really struggled down the stretch and narrowly beat Florida State after being stunned by Missouri just to get to this point. The unexpected sloppy play against inferior competition cost Dan Mullen his job despite the fact he’d signed a contract extension prior to the start of the season. Former Louisiana head coach Billy Napier, who had passed on multiple big-time gigs as he bided his time waiting for the perfect opportunity, is on board as head coach but won’t be a part of this contest, leaving Greg Knox to coach on an interim basis. QB Anthony Richardson isn’t expected to play, so Emory Jones will start before hitting the transfer portal. Raymond James Stadium is sold out for this one in what will be a perfect day for football with temperatures in the 70s and rain set to stay away.
College Football Daily
Join Joe Raineri, Dave Cokin, Bryan Leonard and Tony Mejia for College Football Daily as we preview the upcoming bowl games, plus an early look toward the two College Football Playoff games. We’ll break down UCF vs Florida (Gasparilla Bowl); Miami (Oh) vs North Texas (Frisco Football Classic); Georgia vs Michigan (Orange Bowl); and Cincinnati vs Alabama (Cotton Bowl).
Gasparilla Bowl Stats
College football handicappers Ralph Michaels and JM Sports have put together a 66-page Bowl Betting Guide featuring everything from first quarter scoring to yards per point to plays per minute. Don’t place a bet on the Gasparilla Bowl before diving into this FREE download.
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