Houston vs Memphis AAC Football Picks and Odds for Nov 19

Houston vs Memphis Betting Preview

Sportsmemo college football handicapper JM Sports offers his Houston vs Memphis AAC football betting preview for Friday, November 19. At the time of posting, the Cougars are a 9-point home favorite over the Tigers with the total sitting at 60.5 points.

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Houston vs Memphis Predictions

• Houston Cougars -9 vs Memphis Tigers
• Total: 60.5 Points
• Memphis has covered the point spread in each of the last six meetings between these two teams.
• Memphis is 0-8 against the spread in the Tigers’ last eight true road games.

While eyes have been on the Bearcats this season coming out of the AAC, Houston actually sits atop the leader board, with a 7-0 record against the conference and winning nine out of 10 games this year. Houston has it’s eyes set on a 10th-straight win, while also attempting to avoid a sixth-straight straight-up loss to Memphis.

Houston comes into this game competing for the top spot in the AAC and a shot to get home-field for the conference championship game on December 4th. Houston has been impressive this season, not only in conference games, but in the season as a whole, especially their defense. The Cougars are out-gaining opponents by 119 yards per game, posting 437 yards on average and allowing just 292 yards per game in their ten games, getting these numbers behind 6.34 yards per play for Houston and just 4.92 yards per play for the opposition. Houston is sitting at No. 9 this year, outscoring opponents by over 18 points per game, behind an offense that is putting up 40 points per game against AAC foes, and allowing 23.3 points per game.

This defensive unit has allowed 13 plays per game on average of 10+ yards, and they can prevent those big plays in both aspects of the game, they are No. 8 in rushing yards per game allowed and No. 19 against the pass (allowing just 193 yards per game, and intercepting as many passes [12] as they have allowed TDs through the air).

Memphis on the other hand has put up solid offensive numbers, sitting at 433 yards per game on average, on 5.82 yards per play and putting up 26.5 points per game (No. 71) but the defense is a little bit of a different story. The Tigers defense is allowing almost 28 points per game and holding teams to 5.11 yards per play, but they have struggled in the turnover battle, sitting at (-8) on the year.

On the season, Memphis is No. 89 in yards allowed, and they have struggled defending the pass, which is Houston’s offensive strong point. While the Tigers offense is No. 18 in passing yards per game, the defense is No. 107 in passing yards allowed (260 pass yards per game), allowing 20 TD’s through the air and only picking off the ball five times.

The best comparison between these two teams are the mutual opponents, Memphis has played six conference games and five of those opponents have also played Houston this season, on identical sites. Both teams have played Temple and Tulsa on the road, as well as playing Navy, SMU & Eastern Carolina at home. When you average out the results of those five games, Houston is averaging 37 points, allowing just 19.8 points! They are putting up just 395 yards, while allowing 303. The Cougars forced 11 turnovers and sacked the opponent 14 times, while losing just 3 turnovers in those five games, and allowing 12 sacks.

Memphis on the other hand, definitely has put up more yardage (474 YPG) but the yards haven’t been backed up by points. Memphis has averaged 32 points per game while allowing 26 points per game.  They are (-2) in the turnover battle, in those five games, allowing seven lost turnovers and only forcing five themselves.

Memphis has definitely struggled against the spread this season to say the least, even though they are 4-6 ATS, the odds don’t look great against Houston. The Tigers are 0-4 on the road, 2-5 in the L7 overall, 1-2 in the L3 as a dog and 2-4 against the AAC. Houston now is 6-3 in the L9 ATS after losing the opening week, they are just 2-2 ATS at home, but when they are on equal rest as their opponent, they are 3-1 ATS.

In the five games mention above (with common foes) both teams ended up going 3-2 ATS, with both teams resulting in an L to East Carolina. Since 2010, these teams have faced off nine times with Houston covering just three of those games. In those nine matchups, they have gone over the total six times, which has been a familiar trend for Houston. The over is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games (after starting w with three-straight unders), but this is only the third time this season that they have seen a total over 60.

Memphis, on the other hand, has faced a total greater than 61 six times and have gone under the total in five out of those six games. The Tigers have stayed under the total in the last three games, and the under is 3-1 in Memphis’ four games as an underdog this season. I expect Houston’s defense to step up to the plate and keep this game under the total.

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— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) November 17, 2021

Houston vs Memphis Analysis from The GoldSheet

The Tigers need to either upset Houston or sneak past Tulane in the regular-season finale to ensure at least a .500 finish. Houston is playing for much more than a bowl berth, entering this game 7-0 in AAC play and having locked up a spot in the conference championship game opposite Cincinnati. This game would keep the Cougars perfect while delivering their first season with double-digit victories since 2015. Houston benefits from Memphis star WR Calvin Austin III being extremely banged up and running back Brandon Thomas returned but couldn’t gain much traction while not looking like his usual self. QB Seth Henigan did a nice job of moving Memphis against ECU and is clearly the top passer in the program, but even the true freshman looks like the grind of the season has worn on him.

Dana Holgorsen’s Cougars haven’t lost since squandering an early lead against Texas Tech in the season opener and have covered six of nine after last week’s 37-8 win at Temple. Count on Dana Holgorsen, winless against Memphis since taking over, to have his team ready to go in their home finale as they look to snap a five-game losing streak in this series. WR KeSean Carter was hurt vs. the Owls, so his availability bears watching but the Cougs are loaded at receiver and running back.

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