Illinois Football Predictions, Betting Tips & Team Preview 2023: WagerTalk Best Betting Guide

Illinois Football Predictions & Preview 2023:

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky runs down the Illini’s chances for 2023 and provides expert tips for betting on Illinois football in 2023. Ron looks at areas to watch, favorability of schedule, offers a predicted record for Illinois football in 2023 and offers some handicapping tips for betting on the Fighting Illini this season.

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Illinois Football Preview 2023: Illinois Picks for Betting

Lovie Smith or Bret Bielema? 

Lovie was the only coach to make my bottom five coaches list before the mandatory two-year waiting period (I had enough data on him from the NFL).  Addition by subtraction worked here in Illinois.  Moving up further in the Big Ten will be more difficult.  Can the Illini take the next step in their development?

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Illinois Football Predictions: AREAS TO WATCH

Bielema got the most out of QB DeVito.  Luke Altmayer is largely unknown and is tasked with trying to replicated DeVito’s near 70% accuracy, with just four interceptions. 

Chris Brown and his 1,643 rushing yards moved on to the NFL.  Reggie Love and a touted frosh RB will try to keep the numbers close.  I like WR Isaiah Williams.  How often can they scheme to get him the ball? 

Under former coordinator Ryan Walters (new Purdue Head Coach) this defense was fantastic, allowing 3.6 per carry (just 110 yards per game) and a modern-day amazing pass defense percentage at 49.5%. 

The DB coach was promoted, but gone are three NFL DB’s, one taken in EACH of the 1^st three rounds!  I don’t see how they can maintain such a level of excellence, and even my 57% projection is a bit scary to predict.  The DL does look just as good or better, but based on the schedule, my projection is set at 4.05 allowed per carry.

Illinois 2023 Predictions, Illinois Schedule:

Illinois opens hosting a loaded Toledo squad.  That game should give me some early, useful data points (QB and DB).  Up next is a game at offensively minded Kansas. 

With Penn St next, Illinois does not ease into ‘23.  Game #4 is hosting FAU, who also returns a ton of starters.  Penn St is a home game.  Is this anywhere from 4-0 to 0-4? 

I’m really looking forward to using the data to my benefit for the rest of 2023.  Games 5-6 are at Purdue and their former coordinator, and home to the new staff of Nebraska.  I’ll obviously use 2023 data, but I expect at least a split. 

Want three more tossup games?  They play at Maryland, where I’ll pre-check the Illini defense as they face another solid QB, as well as Maryland’s defense.  They host the new staff of Wisky, a team they beat 34-10 last year at their place.  They travel to Minnesota, another team they “upset”, at home last year. 

Illinois will be rested prior to this game.  2-1 or 3-0 is possible to close 2023, with home games vs. Indiana/Northwestern, and a road game at Iowa (9-3 home upset in 2022).

Illinois Football Bottom Line:

 It’s lucky they have a coach who has plenty of credibility, because this is one of the most dangerous schedules I’ve seen. 

Toledo and FAU are not power five teams, but both are loaded, and face an Illinois team with a new QB, RB and secondary. 

I’m calling for 7-5, but there’s variance depending on QB play, the new Defensive Coordinator and the pass defense.  The “easiest” games are late in the year.  One last note: Illinois had a +13 (regular season) turnover ratio last year.  Without their QB and DB’s, that’s concerning.

Illinois Football HANDICAPPING TIP:

I am really looking forward to using games 1-4 to get me ahead of the curve in their games, and hope I don’t blow it (2-0 ATS last year, 26-16 last 42). 

Pending early results to the contrary, I’m willing to fade them as favorites to almost any of their first nine opponents, as I expect very close games, or at least very competitive games.  Maybe there’s hidden value later in the year if there are losses, or wins in the tossup games that fly under the radar.  I didn’t expect to be excited putting together this particular preview, but I sure am now.  

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